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AF

Air Force 23 at Colorado State 38

CSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:03 · Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:03: Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 16 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:18: Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +9.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:43: Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:00: Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:43: Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 2 at AF 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:03CSU 4th & 9 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24AF 4th & 1 at AF 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 3 at CSU 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 4 at CSU 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:36CSU 4th & 4 at AF 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:43AF 4th & 1 at AF 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:29CSU 4th & 5 at AF 5, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:18AF 4th & 11 at CSU 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:14CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 39, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:55AF 4th & 4 at CSU 46, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:48CSU 4th & 13 at AF 47, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:15AF 4th & 4 at CSU 16, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:51CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:24AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:03CSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:18AF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43CSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:00CSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:43CSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:22AF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
39.5%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
39.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
39.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
39.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 21 yds, downed at the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
40.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
40.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
40.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 4
OPP 43
-5
40.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
40.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2159% → 58%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
40.8%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
40.7%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+17
40.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 17 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
40.6%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
40.5%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
40.6%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+40
41.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 44 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 40 yds to the COLOST 29 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (Preston Hodges) to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:3342% → 46%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
42.4%
Joe Hansley run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
42.4%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+15
42.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 15 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
42.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
46.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 23 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2755% → 57%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+17
45.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 17 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.9%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+60
42.6%
Shayne Davern run for 60 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2144% → 49%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nu'uvali Fa'apito for 6 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+42
44.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 42 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
44.9%
DAWKINS, Dalyn rush for 5 yards to the AF11 (LADIPO, Roland), PENALTY CS holding (BENNETT, Jake) 10 yards to the AF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
44.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+10
44.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 10 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
49.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 16 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7DOWNS
19 plays · 32 yds · 2:5752% → 50%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
48.5%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
47.9%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+7
48.3%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
47.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
47.7%
Benton Washington run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
47.6%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
49.7%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
48.7%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
49.8%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
50.7%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
48.7%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
48.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
49.6%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
48.7%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
49.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-5
49.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Ryan Reffitt) to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+6
49.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Tyler Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 13
-7
50.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Brett DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8INT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:3354% → 58%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
54.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
55.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
54.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 7 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
55.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-7
54.9%
Nick Stevens sacked by Claude Alexander III for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+24
53.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 24 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.9%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
55.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+6
55.0%
Nick Stevens run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+21
58.2%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for 21 yds to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:1043% → 54%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
57.2%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
50
+33
56.4%
Tyler Williams pass complete to Shayne Davern for 33 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
54.6%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+12
56.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
46.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:3151% → 65%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
50.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
49.8%
Nu'uvali Fa'apito run for 2 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
51.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 15 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
52.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
53.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
50
+6
55.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
55.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+44
65.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0066% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
66.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
64.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 23 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
68.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+19
68.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 19 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
68.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
68.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 9 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
68.3%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
80.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
76.5%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
76.8%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
76.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Matt Rochell) to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+28
77.6%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Tyree Simmons return for 13 yds to the ColSt 46 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (Kevin Pierre-Louis) to the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1583% → 95%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
82.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
50
+15
83.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Brodie Hicks) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
83.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 15 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
83.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
83.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 9 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
93.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
93.8%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.7%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
93.7%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
93.8%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
93.8%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 47 Aubrey Duty-Tyson fumbled, forced by Tyree Simmons, recovered by ColSt Deonte ClyburnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:1796% → 99%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
96.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+8
96.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
96.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 5 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
96.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
96.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+33
96.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 33 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the AFA 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
97.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.0%
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:054% → 2%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
96.1%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+18
96.1%
Benton Washington run for 18 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
96.1%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.4%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
95.5%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-3
96.2%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 24 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by AFA Garrett BrownSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
98.3%
Luke Strebel 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
98.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+2
98.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 5 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-5
99.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
99.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:451% → 4%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.1%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-1
99.0%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+7
99.1%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 7 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.0%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
99.0%
Karson Roberts run for 14 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.0%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
99.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+4
99.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
99.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 38 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Nick Januska) to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.2%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
98.6%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 6 yards to the AF38 (WATSON, Ryan), PENALTY CS holding (GOLDITCH, Zack) 10 yards to the CS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+3
98.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 49
-1
98.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+5
98.9%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 13
OPP 47
+6
98.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 36 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
99.1%
ROBERTS, Karson pass incomplete to ROBINETTE, Jale, PENALTY CS roughing passer (JACKSON, Terry) 15 yards to the AF32, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 11 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.1%
ROBERTS, Karson pass incomplete to ROBINETTE, Jale, PENALTY CS pass interference (SIMMONS, Tyree) 15 yards to the CS42, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
99.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 20 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
98.7%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Benton Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+3
98.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Benton Washington for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+5
98.9%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 4
OPP 16
0
98.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:00
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 6:43
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 0:43
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com