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UNM

New Mexico 17 at Nevada 35

NEV
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:00 · Zack Rogers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+13.7Pregame prior+3.7Garbage-time factor+2.6Score differential+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:42: Teriyon Gipson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +10.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:37: James Butler run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +8.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:00: Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +12.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 14:47: Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by NMex Nias Martin , return for 77 yds, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +11.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:02: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 8 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +14.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at UNM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36UNM 4th & 10 at NEV 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:36NEV 4th & 11 at UNM 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:48UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:40NEV 4th & 8 at UNM 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:44UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:59NEV 4th & 3 at UNM 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:19UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 28, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:00UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:02UNM 4th & 1 at NEV 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−2.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:18NEV 4th & 6 at UNM 27, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:54NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:42UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:37NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:00NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:02NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:18NEV Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.5%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
62.5%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
62.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 13 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
62.5%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
62.5%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-3
62.5%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
62.3%
JORDAN, Lamar rush for 10 yards to the 50 yardline (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY NM holding (JENKINS, Aaron) 10 yards to the NM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+12
62.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 12 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
62.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
62.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 31 yds , Elijah Mitchell returns for no gain to the Nevad 25 Elijah Mitchell fumbled, recovered by NMex Reece WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1138% → 38%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
61.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
61.7%
David Anaya run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
61.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Dameon GamblinSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
61.8%
Zack Rogers 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
61.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
62.0%
Tyler Stewart run for 11 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
62.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 6 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
62.5%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
62.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
62.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
62.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
61.7%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
61.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
61.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-1
61.7%
Dameon Gamblin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 4Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
62.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
61.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
61.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
61.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
61.7%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
62.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
61.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
60.7%
Alex Boy punt for 28 yds, downed at the NMex 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1940% → 40%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
60.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 8Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+15
60.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
59.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
58.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 5 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
58.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
58.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
58.6%
Daryl Chestnut run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+2
59.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
59.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0960% → 67%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
59.6%
James Butler run for 16 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
60.2%
James Butler run for 18 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
61.7%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
61.7%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
62.6%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
62.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
62.6%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
67.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1235% → 47%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
64.3%
Carlos Wiggins run for 7 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
64.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
63.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 45Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
63.6%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
64.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
63.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
63.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
63.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
53.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0557% → 70%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+42
57.5%
Don Jackson run for 42 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
61.0%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
69.6%
James Butler run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:4734% → 34%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
66.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 10 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
65.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
65.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
64.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
65.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
66.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
63.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
64.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
63.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
62.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Ridge Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
64.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 9 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-15
63.4%
JORDAN, Lamar rush for 9 yards to the NEV39 (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY NM personal foul (JENKINS, Aaron) 15 yards to the NM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
66.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
68.6%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
68.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+15
67.7%
STEWART, Tyler rush for loss of 1 yard to the NEV28 (SANDERS, Jason), PENALTY NM personal foul (SANDERS, Jason) 15 yards to the NEV44, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
70.5%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
69.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+2
69.9%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
68.9%
Alex Boy punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
67.7%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+12
69.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 12 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+1
69.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 56 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:5169% → 85%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
69.3%
James Butler run for 23 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
71.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-4
71.7%
James Butler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+27
69.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 27 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
73.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+1
73.1%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
71.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 15 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
73.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
85.3%
Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
84.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon Gipson, broken up by Patrick ChoudjaSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
85.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5185% → 76%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
85.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+26
86.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 26 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
86.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
86.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+77
75.5%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by NMex Nias Martin , return for 77 yds, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4073% → 90%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
73.1%
Don Jackson run for 50 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
77.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
77.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+15
76.1%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Nias) 15 yards to the NM8, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 8 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20FUMBLE
15 plays · 75 yds · 0:0012% → 16%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Marquis Bundy, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.3%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.0%
Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.5%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Patrick Reed for 1 yd to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
86.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
86.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
85.8%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
85.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
85.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
85.8%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Romell Jordan for 7 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
85.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
84.0%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 11 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
84.0%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 6 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+10
84.0%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 10 yds Dameon Gamblin fumbled, forced by Asauni Rufus, recovered by Nevad Jordan DobrichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:4292% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.2%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
92.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 3 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
92.4%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-1
92.9%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
92.6%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Garrett Hughes) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 5
50
+7
93.1%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
93.0%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
93.1%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
93.0%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.2%
James Butler run for no gain to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
93.0%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-1
97.0%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+27
99.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.6%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.5%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Reece White for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
98.5%
Austin Apodaca pass intercepted Elijah Moody return for 2 yds to the NMex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:02
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 8 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 3:00
Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+12.1
FUMBLE · Q4 14:47
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by NMex Nias Martin , return for 77 yds, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com