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NMSU

New Mexico State 29 at New Mexico 38

UNM
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG-14UNM 35.7%Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 29 - HOME 14 · Q3 11:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:40 · Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+15.8Home team on offense−20.4Garbage-time factor−5.2Score differential−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:43: Larry Rose III run for 51 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:40: Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:30: Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (L. Jordan Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNM win probability +13.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:41: Jhurell Pressley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +19.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:19: Teriyon Gipson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +26.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 10NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:46NMSU 4th & 2 at UNM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35NMSU 4th & 12 at UNM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 3 at NMSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33UNM 4th & 3 at NMSU 12, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:33NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:18NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 18, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08UNM 4th & 10 at NMSU 40, down 9
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54NMSU 4th & 1 at UNM 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:40NMSU 4th & 10 at UNM 23, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:33UNM 4th & 1 at NMSU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−3.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:30NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:52UNM 4th & 4 at NMSU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−15.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:52NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:15NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:13UNM 4th & 11 at NMSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:02NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 45, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:15UNM 4th & 5 at NMSU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:46UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:30NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:43NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:30UNM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:41UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:19UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1417% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
82.8%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+63
82.2%
Larry Rose III run for 63 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0082% → 82%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
82.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 70 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
82.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 40 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
82.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 7 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
82.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
82.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
82.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
82.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+7
82.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
82.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for no gain to the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
81.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
81.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
81.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 8 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
81.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
81.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
81.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Dameon GamblinSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
81.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 69 yds, downed at the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
80.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0818% → 20%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.2%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
81.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
79.7%
Larry Rose III run for 67 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
79.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+12
79.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 12 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Dameon GamblinSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.8%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Gregory Hogan return for no gain to the NMex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4722% → 22%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
78.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Dakota Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+7
78.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-7
78.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Lee Crosby for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+41
78.1%
Parker Davidson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:5778% → 76%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
78.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
78.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 8 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
78.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
78.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 11 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
78.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
78.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
78.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+1
78.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+6
77.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
78.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
78.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Marquis BundySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+6
78.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
76.3%
Jason Sanders 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
74.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Andy Cunningham) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
75.0%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+29
75.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
50
-10
73.5%
Teldrick Morgan sacked by Markel Byrd for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+9
74.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 11
OWN 49
-2
74.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Dakota Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
75.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 51 yds, downed at the NMex 2Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Rayvean MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
73.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+2
73.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+15
72.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
73.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-5
73.5%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
72.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+7
72.5%
Zack Rogers punt for 40 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3031% → 39%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
68.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+51
61.1%
Larry Rose III run for 51 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
62.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
61.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
61.5%
Zack Rogers punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
61.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-4
61.6%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Daniel Henry for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-5
62.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Teldrick Morgan) to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
62.7%
Anthony Torres punt for 50 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for no gain to the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:4560% → 57%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 4 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+12
60.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 12 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
61.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
61.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
59.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
58.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
57.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 22 yds, downed at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:3544% → 57%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+40
56.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 40 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
53.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 4 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+31
52.8%
Larry Rose III run for 24 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kimmie Carson) to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
43.0%
Parker Davidson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:1451% → 64%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
49.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 2 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+5
49.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Donnie White) to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-5
49.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Anthony McMeans) to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
49.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
50.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
49.0%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
49.2%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
49.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Cranston JonesSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+39
35.7%
Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:0341% → 56%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
41.4%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-1
40.9%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+12
39.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
41.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
42.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
42.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
42.5%
David Anaya run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
42.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (L. Jordan Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
47.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Andy Cunningham) to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+5
47.5%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
48.5%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
49.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:5452% → 72%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
51.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
52.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
71.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
62.3%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
62.8%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Markel Byrd return for no gain to the NMex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:3669% → 65%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 7
50
+4
69.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
69.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (Stody Bradley) to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
69.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
69.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
70.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+1
70.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+1
69.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
65.4%
Jason Sanders 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
59.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
59.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
60.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
61.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Carlos Wiggins at the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1863% → 90%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
62.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 42 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
89.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.0%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Tyrain Taylor, broken up by Cranston JonesSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
85.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 60 yds, downed at the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0588% → 89%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
87.5%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
87.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 13 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+34
87.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 34 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
89.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
89.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+1
89.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 6
OPP 33
-5
89.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
88.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
85.8%
Nick Jeanty run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
83.9%
Nick Jeanty run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
81.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Isaiah Folasa-Lutui) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+1
84.9%
Nick Jeanty run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
86.1%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 14
OWN 45
+15
87.2%
Nick Jeanty pass intercepted Cranston Jones return for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1294% → 94%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
50
+4
93.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
93.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
93.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31SF
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:039% → 3%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
91.1%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-10
91.1%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Aaron Jenkins and Ryan Langford for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 15
OWN 5
-2
92.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, sideline interference (-2 Yards) to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 17
OWN 3
0
92.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 17
OWN 3
-3
96.9%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Maurice Daniels for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 17
OPP 41
-5
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 22
OPP 46
-4
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:19
Teriyon Gipson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+26.8
TD · Q3 2:41
Jhurell Pressley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+19.7
FG · Q3 11:40
Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOOD
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com