Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 7 at San Diego State 21

SDSU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:23 · Dustin Garrison run for 8 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+24.5Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:50: Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +6.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:19: Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 40 — FRES win probability +3.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:15: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:48: Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 32 — SDSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:57: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 44 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23FRES 4th & 1 at SDSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:23FRES 4th & 10 at SDSU 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49SDSU 4th & 7 at FRES 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:12SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:50FRES 4th & 17 at FRES 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:50SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:49FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:38SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:19FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:29FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−4.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:15FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:28SDSU 4th & 6 at FRES 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:44FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:57FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:50SDSU 4th & 2 at FRES 25, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:50FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:28SDSU 4th & 1 at FRES 21, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:23SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:50FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:15SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:57SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3776% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+14
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
76.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
76.3%
Maxwell Smith run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
76.3%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
77.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
76.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
76.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
76.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 13 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
76.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+5
76.3%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+6
76.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+8
76.3%
Dustin Garrison run for 8 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.0%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
76.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
76.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
76.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 5:0377% → 77%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
76.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
77.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+17
76.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 17 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
77.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
77.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
77.2%
SMITH, Maxwell pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah, PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the FS36, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
77.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-6
77.5%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Charles Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+6
76.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
76.8%
Donny Hageman 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4924% → 23%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
76.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Marteze Waller for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
76.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+1
76.1%
Zack Greenlee run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
76.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds, downed at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
76.8%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
76.7%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
76.3%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Ejiro EderaineSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
75.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
75.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-6
76.0%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
77.0%
Zack Greenlee run for no gain to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+35
77.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 35 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 28 Lloyd Mills fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Stratton BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:1126% → 33%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
74.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+11
74.3%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
67.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
71.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 6 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
71.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Ejiro EderaineSimilar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.0%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
68.3%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
69.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
70.4%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
70.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
69.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+7
69.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 39 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
65.7%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+2
66.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+7
67.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Dustin Garrison for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
66.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 2:2669% → 69%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-10
68.8%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 45 yards to the FS31 (ELLIS, Jamal), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+15
68.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 15 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
68.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete, broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
68.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+3
67.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
68.5%
Tanner Blain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-12
66.3%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Randy Ricks for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
65.0%
WALLER, Marteze rush for loss of 3 yards to the FS22 (DUNN, Ryan), PENALTY FS illegal block 12 yards to the FS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
65.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+5
65.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-5
66.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
66.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
67.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0071% → 66%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
70.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
71.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
71.5%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 15 yards to the FS8 (ELLIS, Jamal), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the FS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 16
OPP 33
-6
69.9%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 22
OPP 39
-13
68.1%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Nathan Madsen and Todd Hunt for a loss of 13 yards to the SANDIEGOST 48 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 35
OWN 48
+45
66.3%
Tanner Blain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the SANDIEGOST 13 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) to the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
64.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 14
OWN 3
-1
64.1%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 15
OWN 2
0
64.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 2
0
65.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 15
OWN 2
+8
66.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds , Damontae Kazee returns for 8 yds to the FrsSt 10 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1670% → 82%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
69.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
69.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
82.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Dustin Garrison for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
77.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
76.7%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
81.3%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
82.1%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Dakota Gordon, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.1%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
82.1%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.2%
Chase Price run for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.1%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
82.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Chase FavreauSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
81.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0022% → 19%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
78.1%
GREENLEE, Zack pass incomplete to OLSEN, Chad, PENALTY FS pass interference 10 yards to the FS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-2
78.4%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+10
78.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 10 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
79.7%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Jake Fely and Alex Barrett for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
80.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 63 yds, downed at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:5184% → 95%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
84.4%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
85.8%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
86.7%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+16
86.6%
Chase Price run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
87.2%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-7
87.2%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
87.2%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
87.2%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+44
95.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 44 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
92.3%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
92.2%
Zack Greenlee run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
92.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad Olsen, broken up by Kameron KellySimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
92.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:3595% → 97%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.4%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
95.6%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+8
95.6%
Dakota Gordon run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
95.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
95.7%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
95.8%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Chase Price run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
96.6%
Donny Hageman 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:0097% → 99%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.7%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+42
96.7%
Chase Price run for 42 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
97.1%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
97.1%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
97.0%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+6
98.5%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:15
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q4 10:57
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 44 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 9:50
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com