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NEV

Nevada 24 at Buffalo 21

BUF
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:06 · Alex Boy punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:07: James Butler run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +5.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:12: Don Jackson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +6.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:56: Adam Mitcheson 43 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +3.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:25: Don Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +20.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:06: Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 5 yds for a TD, (M. McGill Run For Two-point Conversion) — BUF win probability +29.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:35NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:06NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:17BUF 4th & 21 at NEV 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:41NEV 4th & 7 at BUF 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:41BUF 4th & 1 at NEV 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−2.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:50BUF 4th & 17 at NEV 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:52NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:24BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:00NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:56BUF 4th & 3 at NEV 26, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−10.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:56NEV 4th & 20 at NEV 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−5.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:06NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−5.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:32NEV 4th & 3 at BUF 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:26BUF 4th & 15 at NEV 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:11BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:07NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:12NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:25NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:06BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+17
63.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 57 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 17 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
63.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
63.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 14:35
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+25
63.7%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds NEVADA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:5364% → 65%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
63.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
63.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
63.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
63.9%
Malcolm Robinson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+41
65.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 41 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
64.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+11
64.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
64.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the Nevad 35 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jerico Richardson) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 17
OWN 25
+3
64.9%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+6
64.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
64.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Alex Boy punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
65.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 34 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
66.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
66.2%
Joe Licata run for 2 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
66.5%
[PSTL], ROBINSON, Malco rush for 13 yards to the NEV21, out-of-bounds (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY UB holding (WEISER, Matt) 10 yards to the NEV44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-10
66.2%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 10 yards to the NEV34 (MITCHELL, E.;BABER, Dameon), PENALTY UB holding (MANOSALVAS, Bra) 10 yards to the UB46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 30
OWN 46
+6
66.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 24
OPP 48
+1
66.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 23
OPP 47
+2
65.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:4033% → 39%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+91
66.9%
James Butler run for 91 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.0%
James Butler run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
62.8%
Joe Licata run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
63.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
62.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
62.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:5439% → 45%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-14
61.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Victor Gonzalez for 1 yd to the Nevad 39 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (Don Jackson) to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 24
OWN 24
+1
62.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+20
62.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 20 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
55.4%
Don Jackson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:0157% → 60%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
56.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Brandon Smiley for 14 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.6%
[PSTL], LICATA, Joe pass complete to ROBINSON, Malco for 6 yards to the UB47 (FARAIMO, Salesa), PENALTY UB illegal touching (ROBINSON, Malco) 0 yards to the UB41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+22
57.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 22 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
58.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
59.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by Bryan Lane JrSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.0%
Malcolm Robinson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+15
58.2%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY NEV pass interference (MUHAMMAD, Ahki) 15 yards to the NEV8, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
58.2%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, QB hurry by YATES, Rykeem, PENALTY UB personal foul (KLING, John) 15 yards to the NEV23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+7
57.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
59.6%
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:3042% → 47%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
57.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
50
+9
56.8%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+17
56.6%
James Butler run for 17 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
56.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
56.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Demone HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
52.9%
Brent Zuzo 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
16 plays · 27 yds · 4:5154% → 50%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
54.2%
Joe Licata sacked by Rykeem Yates for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+6
53.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Kendall Patterson for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+16
53.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 16 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
55.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+4
56.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
56.3%
Joe Licata sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+5
55.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 5 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+9
55.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 9 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
55.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
57.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
55.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-15
53.9%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY UB personal foul (KLING, John) 15 yards to the NEV43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 22
OPP 43
+5
51.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
50.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
48.1%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
47.4%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+5
47.4%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
46.9%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
43.9%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
43.4%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
44.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
45.3%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
45.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
45.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
46.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+6
44.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 19 , Andrew Celis returns for 6 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
42.7%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
43.0%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
42.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Alex Boy punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4344% → 51%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
44.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 16 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
47.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
47.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+9
46.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
48.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
48.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
47.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
50.9%
Adam Mitcheson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
45.4%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
44.5%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
44.4%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
50
-2
43.8%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
45.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-8
46.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Nick Gilbo for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
49.4%
Alex Boy punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0046% → 54%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
46.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 6 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+18
47.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 18 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
47.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+16
49.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 16 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
53.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
53.5%
Joe Licata pass intercepted, touchback. Dameon Baber return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:2760% → 87%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
40.2%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
39.5%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
36.4%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
36.3%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
36.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 8 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
35.5%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
35.0%
Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
35.4%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
34.2%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
34.3%
[PSTL], STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H., PENALTY NEV illegal touching (HENDERSON, H.) 0 yards to the UB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+15
34.3%
[SGUN], STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H. (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY UB roughing passer (ANYANWU, Randy) 15 yards to the UB20, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
33.8%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
33.8%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
13.5%
Don Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1916% → 50%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
16.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
15.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 9 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
17.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 37 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
21.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+13
21.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 13 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 5 yds for a TD, (M. McGill Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.1%
[PSTL], STEWART, Tyler pass complete to RICHARDSON, J. for 12 yards to the NEV37, PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass (GOLTRY, Nathan) 5 yards to the NEV20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
35.4%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
35.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
37.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds , Collin Lisa returns for no gain to the Buff 25 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Diamond Williams) to the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0039% → 45%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.2%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
38.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+21
36.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 21 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
43.0%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe rush for 5 yards to the UB45 (LANE JR., Bryan), PENALTY UB illegal formation 5 yards to the UB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+9
39.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Brandon Smiley for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
41.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
45.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
45.3%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Nevad 45 Jordan Johnson fumbled, recovered by Nevad Alex Bertrando , return for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5678% → 81%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
22.4%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
22.4%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-2
16.3%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
19.1%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:0030% → 22%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
30.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+27
29.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 27 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
35.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
33.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 16 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
38.2%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, QB hurry by SEAU, Ian, PENALTY UB holding (GUY, Dillon) 10 yards to the UB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
33.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+4
32.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+1
31.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 1 yd to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
21.6%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the Nevad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
11.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-2
12.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:06
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 5 yds for a TD, (M. McGill Run For Two-point Conversion)
+29.2
TD · Q4 10:25
Don Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-20.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com