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FRES

Fresno State 23 at San José State 49

SJSU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:08 · Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the SJSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior+14.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:52: Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:18: Tyler Ervin run for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +8.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:04: Jamire Jordan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening PAT MISSED) — FRES win probability +14.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 1:25: Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 49 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 5 at SJSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14SJSU 4th & 4 at FRES 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:08FRES 4th & 4 at SJSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at SJSU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:03FRES 4th & 11 at SJSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:36SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:25FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:56FRES 4th & 12 at SJSU 31, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:04SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 40, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:03FRES 4th & 17 at SJSU 33, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:21SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:52SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:18SJSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:36FRES Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:04FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:25SJSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:56SJSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:03SJSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
67.3%
Jamire Jordan run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
67.3%
Da'Mari Scott run for 3 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-2
67.3%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+1
67.3%
Malique Micenheimer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:4867% → 70%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
67.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 12 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
67.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
67.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
67.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
67.4%
Joe Gray run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
67.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 15 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
67.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+3
67.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
67.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
69.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
68.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
68.8%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 11
OWN 13
-10
69.1%
Ford Childress sacked by Eugene Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 21
OPP 0
0
68.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 21
OWN 3
0
69.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
69.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-8
69.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Claudell Louis for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+11
69.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Justin Holmes for 11 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-13
69.1%
Joe Gray sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 13 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
68.4%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
68.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
68.6%
Ford Childress pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+2
68.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:2470% → 77%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
70.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+9
70.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
70.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+19
70.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 19 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.8%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
70.8%
Shane Smith run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+24
70.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 24 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2126% → 26%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
73.7%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
73.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
73.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
74.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
76.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
76.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
76.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 6 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
76.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
76.7%
GRAY, Joe pass complete to WINSTON, Tyler for 4 yards to the SJ33 (GLASS, Tyquwan), PENALTY SJ ineligible downfield on pass (GONZALEZ, Chris) 5 yards to the SJ24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+12
76.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 12 yds Jarrod Lawson fumbled, forced by Stratton Brown, recovered by FrsSt James BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0525% → 30%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
75.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 17 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.5%
Kilton Anderson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
74.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+8
75.1%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
74.5%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.3%
Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5073% → 82%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
72.5%
Joe Gray sacked by Shannon Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+24
72.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Josh Oliver for 24 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
73.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+17
74.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
74.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
74.3%
Thomas Tucker run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.3%
Thomas Tucker run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-3
74.3%
Joe Gray sacked by Nathan Madsen for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
82.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4919% → 20%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.7%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+14
79.8%
Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 14 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.8%
Ford Childress pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+28
80.4%
Marteze Waller run for 28 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
78.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
79.0%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
80.0%
Ford Childress pass complete to Marteze Waller for no gain to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
79.9%
Kody Kroening 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:0381% → 81%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
81.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 19 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
81.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+11
80.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
50
-3
81.0%
Joe Gray sacked by Justin Green for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
79.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 12 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
80.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.8%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+47
80.9%
Austin Lopez 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4280% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
79.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
80.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
80.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
80.0%
Thomas Tucker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
80.7%
GRAY, Joe pass incomplete to WINSTON, Tyler (GLASS, Tyquwan), PENALTY FS offside defense (EDERAINE, Ejiro) 5 yards to the FS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+3
80.7%
Joe Gray run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
91.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4213% → 22%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
87.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
87.0%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.9%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
85.8%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
86.7%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
86.1%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
77.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
82.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
81.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-14
81.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:4422% → 37%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
77.9%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
77.9%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
77.9%
Malique Micenheimer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.3%
Jamire Jordan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3972% → 90%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
73.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
73.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
73.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
74.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
89.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 49 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.8%
Ford Childress pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 5 yds Josiah Blandin fumbled, forced by Maurice McKnight, recovered by FrsSt Justin NorthernSimilar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-3
85.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
87.1%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
87.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:0690% → 98%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
89.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+16
89.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 16 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
90.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
90.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.3%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
96.4%
Ford Childress pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 19 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
96.2%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
96.0%
Ford Childress pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+10
96.3%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.6%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
95.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to Marteze Waller for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 31Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
96.2%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+4
96.3%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
98.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamire Jordan) to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
98.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Nathan Madsen) to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, downed at the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22INT TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:562% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
98.0%
Ford Childress pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
98.1%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+13
98.1%
Ford Childress pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 13 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
99.9%
Ford Childress pass intercepted for a TD Jimmy Pruitt return for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
99.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 25 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to Marteze Waller for 7 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+10
99.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Ford Childress pass complete to Marteze Waller for 2 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-9
99.9%
Ford Childress sacked by Andre Chachere for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Ford Childress pass incomplete to Marteze Waller, broken up by Mark AmannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
99.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
Thomas Tucker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
99.8%
Thomas Tucker run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:25
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 49 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 5:04
Jamire Jordan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening PAT MISSED)
-14.6
TD · Q3 11:18
Tyler Ervin run for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com