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USA

South Alabama 34 at San Diego State 27

SDSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:51 · Aleem Sunanon 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 139Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:12: Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 46 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +6.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:21: Xavier Johnson run for 74 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +10.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:51: Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 57 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +43.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:05: Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +39.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Aleem Sunanon 46 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +38.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51USA 4th & 11 at SDSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:55USA 4th & 8 at SDSU 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:59SDSU 4th & 3 at USA 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59USA 4th & 6 at USA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18USA 4th & 9 at USA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:42SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:19USA 4th & 9 at USA 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:44SDSU 4th & 16 at USA 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42USA 4th & 7 at USA 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:21SDSU 4th & 5 at USA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:02USA 4th & 1 at SDSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−3.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:24SDSU 4th & 6 at USA 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:51USA 4th & 6 at SDSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−9.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:51SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:56USA 4th & 16 at USA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:53SDSU 4th & 4 at USA 23, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−16.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00USA 4th & 7 at SDSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−11.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−20.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 10:18SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:28SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:21USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:51USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:05SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
86.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
86.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:4014% → 16%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
86.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
86.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
86.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-3
86.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Xavier Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
86.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 9 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
86.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+11
86.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 11 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
86.3%
Cody Clements run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 36 Cody Clements fumbled, recovered by SAlab Cody ClementsSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+5
86.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 7 yards to the SDSU29 (DUNN, Ryan), PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the SDSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
86.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+14
86.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 14 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
86.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
86.3%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
86.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
83.8%
Aleem Sunanon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
83.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
83.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
83.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
83.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 1 yd to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
83.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh Magee, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the USA31, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+24
82.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 24 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
82.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
82.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
82.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Kameron KellySimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1482% → 82%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
81.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
81.4%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+13
81.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 13 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
81.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 6 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
81.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+35
80.5%
Chase Price run for 35 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
82.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
82.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Demarius RanciferSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
81.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
81.5%
Donny Hageman 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
80.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
80.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+4
81.1%
Cody Clements run for 4 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 10
-5
81.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+41
81.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 41 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4483% → 86%
Q2 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.7%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.9%
Lloyd Mills pass complete to Maxwell Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
84.6%
Cody Clements run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+7
84.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 7 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
84.0%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
84.1%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
84.5%
Josh Magee pass incomplete to Cody ClementsSimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+57
85.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 57 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:4086% → 90%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
86.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
89.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 30 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Kyle KelleySimilar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
89.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
89.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
89.4%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
89.0%
Tanner Blain punt for 60 yds, downed at the SAlab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
89.4%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
89.4%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-5
89.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
89.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 7
OWN 5
-2
89.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (-2 Yards) to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
89.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
90.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+14
89.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 14 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
90.1%
Maxwell Smith sacked by DeMarion Harper for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 16
OPP 47
0
89.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
89.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Eric Judge, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
89.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Thompson at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5210% → 10%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
89.8%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-1
89.9%
Terrance Timmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+4
90.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+4
90.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 51 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
90.4%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 46 Chase Price fumbled, forced by Devon Earl, recovered by SAlab DeMarion HarperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
80.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 46 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3917% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
72.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 74 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
77.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
76.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
77.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
77.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SAlab 40 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, forced by Devon Earl, recovered by SDSt Dakota GordonSimilar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-3
77.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 14:21
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
75.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 42 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+22
71.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 22 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
70.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
70.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 8 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
69.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 9 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
68.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
68.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 7 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
67.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
67.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
67.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
67.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 6 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-2
69.2%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4172% → 76%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
72.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 21 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
74.2%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 2 yards to the USA39 (Devon Earl), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
72.0%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
71.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+14
70.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 14 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+54
75.7%
Donny Hageman 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:3326% → 29%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
74.2%
Terrance Timmons run for 9 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
72.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
73.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
73.1%
Terrance Timmons run for 11 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
50
+6
70.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
70.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
70.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 18 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
69.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-3
69.0%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
68.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
71.3%
Aleem Sunanon 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
73.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
75.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-1
73.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Tanner Blain punt for 46 yds, downed at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
73.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tyreis Thomas for 5 yds Tyreis Thomas fumbled, forced by Damontae Kazee, recovered by SAlab Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
73.5%
Cody Clements run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+14
73.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 14 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
70.4%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
73.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
74.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete, broken up by Kalan MontgomerySimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+4
75.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2676% → 76%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
76.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 11 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
76.7%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 25 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
79.7%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Caleb Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+6
78.4%
Maxwell Smith run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
79.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
77.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
80.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
80.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
79.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
75.7%
Donny Hageman 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:0229% → 74%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
70.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 11 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
69.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+57
26.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 57 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:4641% → 88%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
41.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 20 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
46.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+5
48.4%
Maxwell Smith run for 5 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
48.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+7
48.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
48.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
48.4%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 6 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
87.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28FG
19 plays · 0 yds · 17:0526% → 57%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
73.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+25
73.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 25 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
68.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
69.2%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
70.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
68.0%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
68.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
45.8%
Aleem Sunanon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
40.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
42.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 15 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 16%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
28.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
27.7%
Dakota Gordon run for no gain to the SAlab 29 Dakota Gordon fumbled, recovered by SDSt Maxwell SmithSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
18.5%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 29
0
15.7%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Daniel BrunskillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:51
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 57 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
-43
TD · Q4 2:05
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+39.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Aleem Sunanon 46 yd FG GOOD
-38.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com