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BOIS

Boise State 24 at BYU 35

BYU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:15 · Jonny Linehan punt for 46 yds, downed at the BoiSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:01: Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:32: Adam Hine run for 21 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +19.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 2:03: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 29 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +17.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:22: Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +22.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +55.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:39BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47BOIS 4th & 6 at BYU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40BOIS 4th & 16 at BYU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:15BOIS 4th & 15 at BYU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BOIS 4th & 7 at BYU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−7.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:00BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 24, down 10
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:39BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:49BYU 4th & 7 at BOIS 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:53BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:16BYU 4th & 14 at BOIS 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:33BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−7.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:45BYU 4th & 7 at BOIS 35, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.1 ptsWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%−5.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−15.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:09BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:01BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:32BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:03BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:22BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:45BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:30BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5150% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
50.1%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Armand Nance for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
50.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+84
50.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 84 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3050% → 49%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
50.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-11
50.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 21
OWN 7
+7
51.1%
Devan Demas run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
51.5%
Sean Wale punt for 41 yds, downed at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2352% → 53%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
51.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-2
51.9%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
52.1%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
52.6%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Donte Deayon return for 1 yd to the BoiSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4248% → 46%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
52.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Henry) to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+15
52.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jake Roh for 15 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
52.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+7
52.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 7 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
52.5%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
52.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-2
52.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+4
53.6%
Sean Wale punt for 55 yds , Micah Hannemann returns for 4 yds to the BYU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4354% → 54%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
53.5%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
53.9%
Tanner Mangum run for 7 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-2
53.9%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
53.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:3846% → 50%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
53.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 21 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
53.3%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+7
53.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 7 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
53.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
53.6%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
53.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2852% → 53%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.7%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
51.8%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
51.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 12 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
52.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
53.4%
Mitchell Juergens run for no gain to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-2
52.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Algernon Brown for a loss of 2 yards, fumbled, recovered by BYU at the BYU 44 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ului Lapuaho) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.9%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3552% → 51%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
52.2%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
52.3%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+1
51.6%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
51.2%
Jonny Linehan punt for 46 yds, downed at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2850% → 49%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
50.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
50.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelsey YoungSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+6
51.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
51.4%
Sean Wale punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5653% → 52%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
52.7%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
52.9%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+12
52.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 12 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
53.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
53.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+43
52.2%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Donte Deayon return for 28 yds to the BOISEST 46 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1151% → 48%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
49.3%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-5
49.3%
Ryan Finley sacked by Harvey Langi for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
50.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
51.9%
Sean Wale punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2053% → 51%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
52.6%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+41
52.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 41 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-11
55.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 21
OWN 41
-17
52.7%
Tanner Mangum sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 11 Tanner Mangum fumbled, recovered by BYU Ului Lapuaho , return for 0 yards BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ului Lapuaho) to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 51
OWN 11
0
51.2%
Jonny Linehan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:0552% → 49%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
47.7%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
47.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
47.5%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
46.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
48.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
50.8%
Sean Wale punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5954% → 52%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
53.5%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
53.3%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+9
52.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
52.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16END OF HALF
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:1652% → 56%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
48.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mario Yakoo) to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+10
49.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
47.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 15 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
46.6%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
46.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+16
45.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 16 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.6%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
44.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
45.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+4
46.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Devan Demas for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
44.5%
Tyler Rausa 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5954% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
45.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
45.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
43.7%
Devan Demas run for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
42.7%
Devan Demas run for 7 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
43.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 2 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-11
43.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yard to the BYU 35 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 19
OPP 45
0
44.6%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+15
45.9%
BYU Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+26
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to David Lucero for 26 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0131% → 29%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
31.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
31.1%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
30.6%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
29.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2169% → 69%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
30.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
29.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-2
29.9%
Ryan Finley sacked by Manoa Pikula for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
31.1%
Sean Wale punt for 45 yds, downed at the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:0730% → 51%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
29.6%
Tanner Mangum run for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-11
29.3%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Tanner Vallejo for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 19
OWN 7
+70
27.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 70 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
32.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
31.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jonathan Moxey) to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
31.8%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-10
31.3%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryan Sampson) to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+21
51.2%
Adam Hine run for 21 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:2957% → 78%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
43.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Holden Huff for 17 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
42.1%
Devan Demas run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
41.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 9 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
39.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+23
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 23 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
22.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 29 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1425% → 23%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
25.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
24.1%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
24.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
25.0%
Adam Hine run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
26.6%
Tanner Mangum run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+4
24.8%
Mitchell Juergens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
22.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 41 yds, downed at the BoiSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4675% → 75%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
25.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+26
24.7%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 26 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4127% → 48%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
27.0%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Devon Blackmon) to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 25
OPP 27
+6
25.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 6 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+20
25.1%
Algernon Brown run for 20 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
26.7%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Taimatuia) to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.3%
Tanner Mangum run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.0%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Mathews, Mitch, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Moxey, Jonathan) 0 yards to the BOISEST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.9%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 2:2965% → 63%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
34.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
35.4%
Ryan Finley sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 14
OWN 12
-5
35.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 19
OWN 7
+5
35.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+8
36.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 8 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
37.0%
Sean Wale punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Edwards at the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3744% → 34%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.0%
Adam Hine run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
45.6%
Mitchell Juergens pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
44.6%
Adam Hine run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
44.4%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-4
43.9%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Jonathan Moxey for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
37.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
34.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4372% → 71%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
28.4%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
28.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-7
28.3%
Ryan Finley sacked by Harvey Langi for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+3
29.4%
Sean Wale punt for 48 yds , Eric Takenaka returns for 3 yds to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4837% → 92%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
40.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Adam Hine for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+19
36.0%
Adam Hine run for 19 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
40.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 7 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-4
42.9%
Tanner Mangum run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
36.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+35
91.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
94.8%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted for a TD Kai Nacua return for 50 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:256% → 7%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
94.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+55.5
TD · Q4 10:22
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q3 4:32
Adam Hine run for 21 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com