2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUND aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUND score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:56 · Reid Taubenheim 24 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:52: Keaton Studsrud run for 44 yds for a TD, (Reid Taubenheim KICK) — UND win probability +10.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q2 2:56: Reid Taubenheim 24 yd FG MISSED — UND win probability +8.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:25: John Santiago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Reid Taubenheim KICK) — UND win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:03: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 92 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey PAT MISSED) — WYO win probability +11.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:44: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +11.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UND made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 15:00UND 4th & 8 at WYO 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it50.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal50.0%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q1 13:37WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 28, tiedClose callPunted · 50.2% before the snapGo for it50.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:36UND 4th & 10 at UND 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q1 8:53WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it50.4%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%average punt
- Q2 14:52WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it41.0%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q2 2:56UND 4th & 7 at WYO 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snapGo for it67.5%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call68.2%91% to makePunt61.4%−6.7average punt
- Q2 0:32WYO 4th & 2 at UND 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.3%57% to convertField goal30.2%−0.138% to makePunt29.2%−1.1average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.0%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q3 14:04UND 4th & 2 at UND 41, up 14Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it73.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 13:21WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it28.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%−1.1average punt
- Q3 10:41UND 4th & 5 at WYO 38, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.5%42% to convertField goal76.3%−1.238% to makePuntTheir call76.3%−1.1average punt
- Q3 5:08WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it19.1%−1.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q4 7:10UND 4th & 12 at WYO 28, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.823% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%60% to makePunt90.9%−3.2average punt
- Q4 7:10WYO 4th & 2 at UND 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%57% to convertField goal4.7%−0.268% to makePunt2.1%−2.8average punt
- Q4 4:15UND 4th & 8 at UND 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snapGo for it89.8%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q4 4:13WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 42, down 11Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%average punt
- Q4 1:34UND 4th & 23 at WYO 34, up 11Close callWent for it · 94.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.2%−0.67% to convertField goal94.8%47% to makePunt94.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:44UND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.3%97% to makeGo for two51.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52UND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.2%97% to makeGo for two58.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:25UND Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:03WYO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call11.1%97% to makeGo for two11.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:44WYO Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.5%97% to makeGo for two9.1%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNDDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
74.0%
John Santiago run for 5 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
UNDDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 1:3327% → 27%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
73.5%
NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (-11 Yards) to the NDKTA 10Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+13
73.5%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Josh Seibel for 13 yds to the NDKTA 28Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-1
73.1%
John Santiago run for 9 yds to the NDKTA 37 NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NDKTA 27Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-1
73.0%
Keaton Studsrud sacked by Eddie Yarbrough for a loss of 1 yard to the NDKTA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 8:53
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+7
72.7%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 7 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OWN 0
0
72.7%
COFFMAN, C. pass incomplete to GENTRY, Tanner, PENALTY UND pass interference off-setting, PENALTY WY holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+1
72.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 55 yds , Josh Seibel returns for 1 yd to the NDKTA 24 WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NDKTA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 5TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2828% → 34%
UNDDrive 7TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
59.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 9 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
60.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 15 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
61.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Cole ReyesSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
60.5%
Ethan Wood punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Seibel at the NDKTA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 9MISSED FG18 plays · 78 yds · 8:0446% → 56%
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+16
54.1%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Josh Seibel for 16 yds to the NDKTA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+11
52.4%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Clive Georges for 11 yds to the NDKTA 41Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+12
51.4%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Luke Stanley for 12 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
51.2%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Clive Georges for 16 yds to the Wyom 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10DOWNS11 plays · 42 yds · 2:2445% → 44%
Q2 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
45.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 7 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
45.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 23 yds to the NDKTA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
47.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 7 yds to the NDKTA 39Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-10
43.0%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Taj Rich for a loss of 10 yards to the NDKTA 49Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-10
41.5%
COFFMAN, C. pass complete to HOLLISTER, J. for 16 yards to the UND33 (Brian Labat), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 23
OWN 41
+21
40.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 21 yds to the NDKTA 38Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
43.6%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Tanner Gentry, broken up by Taj RichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
UNDDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.9%
Keaton Studsrud pass incomplete to Clive Georges, broken up by Eddie YarbroughSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+8
37.8%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Josh Seibel for 8 yds to the NDKTA 41Similar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+5
37.3%
Mitch Meindel punt for 49 yds , Tanner Gentry returns for 5 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Tanner Gentry, broken up by Jake DisterhauptSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
37.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 5 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.4%
Ethan Wood punt for 44 yds , Josh Seibel returns for no gain to the NDKTA 34 NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NDKTA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
32.2%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Zach Adler for 3 yds to the NDKTA 16Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+15
32.6%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Miguel Cerriteno for 15 yds to the NDKTA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
29.8%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Luke Stanley for 12 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
24.7%
COFFMAN, C. pass incomplete to MAULHARDT, Jake, PENALTY UND pass interference 15 yards to the WY36, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
25.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 4 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
26.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 7 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2382% → 98%
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
50
+11
16.9%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Miguel Cerriteno for 11 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
16.8%
John Santiago run for 5 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
14.4%
Josh Seibel run for 8 yds to the Wyom 11 WYOMING Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD4 plays · 92 yds · 0:224% → 16%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
4.3%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Tanner Gentry, broken up by Deion HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
4.2%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Deion HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+92
16.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 92 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 19FG12 plays · 47 yds · 5:5390% → 98%
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
9.9%
Keaton Studsrud pass complete to Luke Mathewson for 14 yds to the NDKTA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
9.3%
John Santiago run for 6 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD8 plays · 53 yds · 1:265% → 18%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
5.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 21 yds to the NDKTA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+6
5.7%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the NDKTA 24Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+12
5.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 12 yds to the NDKTA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
18.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2993% → 93%
Q4 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+24
6.6%
Mitch Meindel punt for 54 yds , Tanner Gentry returns for 24 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22DOWNS5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
10.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Joseph Parker for 4 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
9.6%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Joseph Parker, broken up by Jake DisterhauptSimilar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 11
OWN 42
-9
8.6%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Austin Cieslak and Brian Labat for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 23DOWNS10 plays · -4 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF GAME2 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
2.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 14 yds to the NDKTA 44 for a 1ST down lat. to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds Jake Maulhardt fumbled, recovered by Wyom James Price for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:03
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 92 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey PAT MISSED)
+11.8
TD · Q4 5:44
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 14:52
Keaton Studsrud run for 44 yds for a TD, (Reid Taubenheim KICK)
-10.2