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UNLV

UNLV 30 at Northern Illinois 38

NIU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-11.1NIU 55.8%Nicolai Bornand 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 3 · Q2 4:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:18 · Nicolai Bornand 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Pregame prior+22.3Home team on offense−13.8Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:18: Nicolai Bornand 21 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +11.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:48: Desroy Maxwell 16 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +10.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:24: Joel Bouagnon 16 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +15.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:34: Joel Bouagnon 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +14.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:26: Aaron Criswell 41 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Nicolai Bornand Kick) — UNLV win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:39NIU 4th & 10 at UNLV 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00NIU 4th & 3 at UNLV 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16UNLV 4th & 7 at NIU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00NIU 4th & 2 at UNLV 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:16UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44NIU 4th & 13 at UNLV 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:18UNLV 4th & 4 at NIU 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:42UNLV 4th & 1 at NIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−4.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:05UNLV 4th & 2 at NIU 16, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%−1.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−10.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:58NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:53UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:50UNLV 4th & 8 at NIU 34, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:30UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:52NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:17UNLV 4th & 9 at NIU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:31UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54UNLV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:38NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:48NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:24NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:34NIU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:10NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:26UNLV Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:2514% → 15%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.8%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
85.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
85.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
85.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Aaron Criswell for 10 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
85.8%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+64
84.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 64 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4785% → 84%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+39
84.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 39 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.8%
HARE, Drew rush for 10 yards to the UNLV21, out-of-bounds (MCTYER, Torry), PENALTY NIU holding (GOLLADAY, Kenny) 0 yards to the UNLV31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
84.8%
Tommylee Lewis run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
84.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee LewisSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-3
84.7%
Drew Hare sacked by Tau Lotulelei for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
84.1%
Christian Hagan 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.1%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.1%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
84.2%
Desroy Maxwell run for 7 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-5
84.3%
Chad Beebe run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
84.2%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+2
84.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
83.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 12 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
82.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
82.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Aaron Criswell for 10 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
82.8%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
82.9%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
83.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
82.8%
Blake Decker sacked by Jawuan Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
81.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 17 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
81.6%
Drew Hare run for 10 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
82.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
82.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
82.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
82.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+1
81.9%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:5420% → 26%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
80.3%
Kurt Palandech run for 11 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
80.0%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+12
79.7%
Keith Whitely run for 12 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
79.6%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
79.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+10
79.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Anthony Williams for 10 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
73.9%
Kurt Palandech run for 18 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.7%
Keith Harris Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
74.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 10 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
74.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
72.2%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
72.4%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
72.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Aaron CriswellSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+33
72.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NORTHERNIL 31 UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Kenny Keys) to the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.2%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
50
-1
72.5%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
71.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 14 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
72.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Desroy Maxwell) to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+3
72.2%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
72.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
71.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Ezra SaffoldSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
70.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11FG
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:5532% → 44%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
68.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 23 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
67.7%
Blake Decker run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
50
+2
67.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
67.0%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
67.1%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
67.0%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
66.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+15
67.3%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to CRISWELL, Aaron, PENALTY NIU pass interference (MAYES, Brandon) 15 yards to the NIU20, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.8%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
66.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
67.3%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to KEYS, Kendal, PENALTY NIU pass interference (SMALLS, Albert) 15 yards to the NIU5, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
66.7%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Jake Phillips, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Andrew Price, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
55.8%
Nicolai Bornand 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4056% → 67%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
57.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
57.2%
Aregeros Turner run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
57.7%
Drew Hare run for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
58.6%
Aregeros Turner run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
58.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+18
58.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 18 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
59.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 10 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
59.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
59.3%
Ezra Saffold run for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
66.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 16 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:2139% → 40%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
61.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 14 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
60.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 9 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
58.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
59.2%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
59.1%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47 UNLV Penalty, illegal forward pass (Blake Decker) to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+16
60.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 16 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
57.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 23
OWN 45
0
59.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to George NaufahuSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 23
OWN 45
+12
60.3%
Blake Decker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:0662% → 77%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
62.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 41 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
66.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
76.5%
Desroy Maxwell 16 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3729% → 39%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
70.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 18 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
68.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
68.2%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
68.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
69.9%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
68.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 18 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
67.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Brandon MayesSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
67.5%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+2
68.3%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
61.2%
Nicolai Bornand 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
64.6%
Drew Hare sacked by Sonny Sanitoa for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+6
63.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
62.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
61.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
60.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
59.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+16
60.2%
Kurt Palandech run for 16 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
58.1%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
58.2%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-6
58.9%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Jamaal Payton for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 2:3259% → 81%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
58.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+8
58.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
59.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
60.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
58.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
59.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Aidan Conlon) to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Jay'Onn MylesSimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+48
58.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 48 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
65.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
81.1%
Joel Bouagnon 16 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2826% → 32%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
74.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 8 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+18
72.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 18 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
70.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 8 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
69.7%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
70.2%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
70.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
68.3%
Nicolai Bornand 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:1170% → 90%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
70.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 18 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
71.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 19 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
74.6%
BOUAGNON, Joel rush for 6 yards to the UNLV39 (KEYS, Kenny), PENALTY NIU holding (CONLON, Aidan) 10 yards to the NIU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+48
71.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 48 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
75.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Joel Bouagnon 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
87.0%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-8
87.2%
Blake Decker sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+11
88.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 11 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+13
88.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 55 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 13 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0890% → 97%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
89.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 25 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
90.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
96.6%
Joel Bouagnon 29 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:365% → 14%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
95.4%
Blake Decker sacked by Cameron Clinton-Earl for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+8
95.7%
George Naufahu run for 8 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
95.4%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY NIU pass interference (LOGAN, Paris) 5 yards to the UNLV40, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.2%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
95.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
95.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+41
86.2%
Aaron Criswell 41 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Nicolai Bornand Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2794% → 92%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
93.6%
Desroy Maxwell run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-2
93.3%
Drew Hare sacked by Peni Vea for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 32 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by NoIll Drew Hare , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+4
92.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
92.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
89.4%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to WHITELY, Keith, PENALTY UNLV holding (SANDERS,J.) 10 yards to the UNLV17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+12
90.2%
Keith Whitely run for 12 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
89.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony Williams UNLV Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+11
90.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
89.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 13 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
86.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
89.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
96.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+18
96.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 18 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:24
Joel Bouagnon 16 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
+15.3
TD · Q4 11:34
Joel Bouagnon 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
+14.3
FG · Q2 4:18
Nicolai Bornand 21 yd FG GOOD
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com