2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadMVSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreMVSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ruben Piraquive punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMex 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:21: Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:26: Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:43: Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — MVSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:32: Jason Sanders 28 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MVSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q1 13:10MVSU 4th & 21 at MVSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 8:08MVSU 4th & 17 at MVSU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 2:21MVSU 4th & 28 at MVSU 7, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at MVSU 10, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%71% to convertField goal98.6%−0.188% to makePunt98.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:40MVSU 4th & 16 at MVSU 1, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 8:37MVSU 4th & 8 at UNM 38, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%35% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.138% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:32UNM 4th & 10 at MVSU 11, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%87% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 14:56MVSU 4th & 22 at MVSU 19, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 10:28MVSU 4th & 8 at MVSU 38, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:47MVSU 4th & 17 at MVSU 18, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00MVSU 4th & 13 at MVSU 18, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:48UNM 4th & 4 at MVSU 10, up 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%44% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.188% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:27MVSU 4th & 3 at MVSU 42, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:52UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 46, up 66Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 8:08UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:38UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:21UNM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:26UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:43UNM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:28UNM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:47UNM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:28UNM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:33UNM Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
MVSUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Donnie White) to the MsVly 27Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+10
99.0%
Quantavius Peterson pass complete to Jr. Th Stokes for 10 yds to the MsVly 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-7
99.0%
Quantavius Peterson sacked by Nik D'Avanzo and Garrett Hughes for a loss of 7 yards to the MsVly 34Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 16
OWN 34
-5
99.0%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MsVly 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
MVSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UNMDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
98.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Carlos Wiggins for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
50
+26
98.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 26 yds to the MsVly 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
98.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 9 yds to the MsVly 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 6FUMBLE5 plays · -18 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.5%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, false start (Austin Sanders) to the MsVly 20Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
98.6%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, false start (Austin Sanders) to the MsVly 15Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-8
98.6%
Quantavius Peterson sacked by Maurice Daniels for a loss of 8 yards to the MsVly 7 Quantavius Peterson fumbled, recovered by NMex Nik D'Avanzo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD1 play · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.0%
Quantavius Peterson sacked by Donnie White for a loss of 8 yards to the MsVly 17Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-5
99.0%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, delay of game (Dontrinell Scott) to the MsVly 12Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 23
OWN 12
-5
99.0%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, delay of game (Ruben Piraquive) to the MsVly 7Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+4
99.0%
Ruben Piraquive punt for 31 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for 4 yds to the MsVly 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q1 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+17
99.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 17 yds to the MsVly 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-5
99.5%
MISS VALLEY ST Penalty, illegal block (Jacorey Lee) to the MsVly 5Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-4
99.5%
Quantavius Peterson sacked by Maurice Daniels and Garrett Hughes for a loss of 4 yards to the MsVly 1Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+13
99.5%
Ruben Piraquive punt for 44 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for 13 yds to the MsVly 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD7 plays · 32 yds · 2:41100% → 99%
MVSUDrive 12FUMBLE12 plays · 55 yds · 4:290% → 0%
UNMDrive 13FG17 plays · 69 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Austin Apodoca pass incomplete to Carlos Wiggins, broken up by Farrean ToneySimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.7%
Austin Apodoca pass complete to Chris Davis for 10 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 8
50
+13
99.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Carlos Wiggins for 13 yds to the MsVly 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Chris Davis for 9 yds to the MsVly 13Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-5
99.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (Austin Apodaca) to the MsVly 18Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Delane Hart-Johnson, broken up by Tarvandus DonaldsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UNMDrive 16TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
99.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 21 yds to the MsVly 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Dontrinell Scott pass complete to Keenan Daniels for 9 yds to the MsVly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Dontrinell Scott pass complete to Keenan Daniels for 3 yds to the MsVly 39Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Ruben Piraquive punt for 35 yds , Chris Davis returns for no gain to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD3 plays · 73 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
MVSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UNMDrive 20TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q3 2:22
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+4
100.0%
Dontrinell Scott pass complete to Demarius Howard for 4 yds to the MsVly 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
99.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Ridge Jones for 21 yds to the MsVly 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+16
99.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 16 yds to the MsVly 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-3
99.9%
Diquon Woodhouse run for a loss of 3 yards to the MsVly 10 Diquon Woodhouse fumbled, recovered by NMex Diquon WoodhouseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 23INT TD6 plays · 17 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+5
100.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Maurice Daniels) to the MsVly 18Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+11
100.0%
Quantavius Peterson run for 11 yds to the MsVly 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+32
100.0%
Quantavius Peterson pass intercepted for a TD Travis Green return for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MVSUDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UNMDrive 25END OF GAME9 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:52
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:26
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 2:21
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 8:43
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
-0.1