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MORG

Morgan State 7 at Air Force 63

AF
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreMORG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:31 · Chris Moller punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense+21.2Score differential+17.9Pregame prior+14.8Blowout margin+5.3Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:59: Jalen Robinette 26 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Drew Oehrle Kick) — AF win probability +1.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:36: D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +5.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:19: Benton Washington run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +7.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: Moses Skillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Moller KICK) — MORG win probability +5.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:27: Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MORG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:17MORG 4th & 7 at AF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:36MORG 4th & 15 at MORG 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:35MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:31MORG 4th & 7 at MORG 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:44AF 4th & 17 at AF 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:27MORG 4th & 20 at MORG 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00MORG 4th & 14 at MORG 21, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:17MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 20, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:47AF 4th & 6 at MORG 38, up 56
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MORG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:59AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:36AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:19AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:36MORG Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:27AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:16AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:05AF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:56AF Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:22AF Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MORGDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.8%
MORGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MorgS 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Orlando Johnson run for no gain to the MorgS 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Moses Skillon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
72.8%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Ricky Fisk for 17 yds to the MorgS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
72.8%
MORGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MorgS 32Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+9
72.8%
Moses Skillon run for 9 yds to the MorgS 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
72.8%
Moses Skillon run for 4 yds to the MorgS 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-4
72.8%
Ricky Fisk run for a loss of 4 yards to the MorgS 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+25
72.8%
Chris Moller punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AIRFORCE 29 MORGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5572% → 74%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
72.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
72.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
72.6%
MORGAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MorgS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
72.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the MorgS 38Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
72.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 10 yds to the MorgS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
72.7%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the MorgS 26Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
73.9%
Jalen Robinette 26 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Drew Oehrle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 5:4227% → 25%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.3%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Andrew King for 4 yds to the MorgS 29Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
73.2%
Orlando Johnson run for no gain to the MorgS 29Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
73.3%
MORGAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MorgS 24Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
73.5%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Orlando Johnson for 20 yds to the MorgS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.0%
Ricky Fisk run for no gain to the MorgS 44Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Ricky FiskSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+28
73.6%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Brian Gentry for 28 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
72.7%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Eme Akonawe for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
72.7%
Orlando Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-1
73.1%
Moses Skillon sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
74.9%
Chris Moller 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4175% → 81%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.0%
Benton Washington run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
75.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
75.5%
Benton Washington run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 1
50
-5
75.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Jalen Robinette) to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
75.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
75.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the MorgS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
75.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
75.7%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the MorgS 45Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+10
75.4%
Garrett Brown run for 10 yds to the MorgS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
75.9%
Benton Washington run for 20 yds to the MorgS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
75.9%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
75.9%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the MorgS 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
75.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the MorgS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.2%
Moses Skillon run for 1 yd to the MorgS 26Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
79.2%
Orlando Johnson run for 1 yd to the MorgS 27Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
79.3%
Moses Skillon sacked by Samuel Byers for a loss of 7 yards to the MorgS 20Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+8
79.6%
Chris Moller punt for 43 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 8 yds to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:0482% → 90%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.1%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
81.9%
MORGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jai Franklin) to the MorgS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
82.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the MorgS 32Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
82.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the MorgS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
82.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the MorgS 22Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
82.3%
MORGAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the MorgS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
82.3%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the MorgS 13Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
89.8%
Benton Washington run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4411% → 5%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Brian GentrySimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.8%
Lamont Brown III run for 2 yds to the MorgS 27Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.9%
Moses Skillon run for 2 yds to the MorgS 29Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+75
95.2%
Chris Moller punt for 46 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 75 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.3%
Lamont Brown III run for no gain to the MorgS 13Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
95.3%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Andrew King for 4 yds to the MorgS 17Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+10
95.3%
Moses Skillon run for 10 yds to the MorgS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
95.2%
Marcolm Banks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MorgS 25Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Andrew King for 5 yds to the MorgS 30Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Moses Skillon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
95.4%
Chris Moller punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-8
96.5%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 27 Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Tirri JonesSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
96.3%
Ceci Moskowitz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andrew King at the MorgS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 10TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:402% → 9%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
97.7%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Ricky Fisk for 11 yds to the MorgS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
97.6%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Lamont Brown III for 18 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
97.4%
Moses Skillon sacked by Grant Ross for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+5
97.9%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Brian Gentry for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+20
97.4%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Lamont Brown III for 20 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
97.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Weston Steelhammer) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.2%
Lamont Brown III run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.3%
Moses Skillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Moller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:3695% → 95%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.1%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+22
94.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 22 yds to the MorgS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+55
94.6%
Drew Oehrle 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3394% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
94.0%
Garrett Brown run for 20 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
94.3%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 36 yds to the MorgS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-11
94.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-11 Yards) to the MorgS 27Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 21
OPP 27
+16
94.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 16 yds to the MorgS 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
94.3%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the MorgS 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
94.2%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the MorgS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.3%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the MorgS 1Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Andrew King for 5 yds to the MorgS 30Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Lamont Brown III run for no gain to the MorgS 30Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.7%
Moses Skillon run for 6 yds to the MorgS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Moses Skillon run for no gain to the MorgS 36Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Andrew King, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
98.8%
MORGAN ST Penalty, false start (Ricky Fisk) to the MorgS 31Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-5
98.9%
Moses Skillon sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the MorgS 26Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Chris Moller punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5699% → 100%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.3%
Benton Washington run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 4
50
+6
99.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the MorgS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the MorgS 35Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
99.3%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the MorgS 35Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
99.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 35 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 15INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:111% → 0%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Ricky FiskSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.6%
Moses Skillon pass intercepted for a TD Roland Ladipo return for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Moses Skillon run for 3 yds to the MorgS 28Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Ricky FiskSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Lamont Brown IIISimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lochlin Deeks) to the MorgS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.6%
Ricky Fisk run for 12 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Ricky FiskSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.6%
Moses Skillon run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 Moses Skillon fumbled, forced by Grant Ross, recovered by AFA D.J. DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Scott Hester run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
99.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 11 yds to the MorgS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.6%
Scott Hester run for 6 yds to the MorgS 37Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
99.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 7 yds to the MorgS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
99.6%
Scott Hester run for 13 yds to the MorgS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.6%
Devin Rushing run for 6 yds to the MorgS 11Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
99.7%
Scott Hester run for 5 yds to the MorgS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.6%
Scott Hester run for 3 yds to the MorgS 3Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Scott Hester run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Lamont Brown III run for no gain to the MorgS 25Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.9%
Moses Skillon sacked by Steve Brosy for a loss of 8 yards to the MorgS 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Moses Skillon run for 4 yds to the MorgS 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Chris Moller punt for 44 yds, downed at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.8%
Aub Duty-Tyson run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Aub Duty-Tyson run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
Rona Cleveland run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Jake LaCoste run for 3 yds to the MorgS 49Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+10
99.8%
Jake LaCoste run for 10 yds to the MorgS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Jake LaCoste run for 4 yds to the MorgS 35Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
99.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the MorgS 31Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Timothy Mcvey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Moses Skillon pass complete to Andrew King for 2 yds to the MorgS 16Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
99.9%
Lamont Brown III run for 1 yd to the MorgS 17Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
Moses Skillon run for 3 yds to the MorgS 20Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Chris Moller punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andrew Smith at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
99.9%
Jake LaCoste run for 6 yds to the AFA 41 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 14
OWN 31
+12
99.9%
Aub Duty-Tyson run for 12 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Jake LaCoste run for 2 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Aub Duty-Tyson run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Jake LaCoste run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
50
+8
99.9%
Jake LaCoste run for 8 yds to the MorgS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Patrick Healy run for 4 yds to the MorgS 38Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Alex Hansen) to the MorgS 43Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Patrick Healy run for 2 yds to the MorgS 41Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the MorgS 38Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Andrew King at the MorgS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
100.0%
Lamont Brown III run for 1 yd to the MorgS 11Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
100.0%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Andrew KingSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+14
100.0%
Moses Skillon run for 14 yds to the MorgS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
MORGAN ST Penalty, false start (Ricky Fisk) to the MorgS 20Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Moses Skillon pass incomplete to Kirby LinscombSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Lamont Brown III run for 6 yds to the MorgS 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:19
Benton Washington run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 0:36
Moses Skillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Moller KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q2 14:36
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com