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JMU

James Madison 48 at SMU 45

SMU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Josh Williams punt for 36 yds , John Miller returns for 8 yds to the JMads 20 JMU Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+27.5Home team on offense−1.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:42: Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +27.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 12:30: Vad Lee pass complete to Deane Cheatham for 52 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK) — JMU win probability +25.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:58: Matt Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +32.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 2:04: Matt Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +41.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:27: Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK) — JMU win probability +62.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47SMU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29JMU 4th & 8 at JMU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34SMU 4th & 1 at JMU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10JMU 4th & 6 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:07SMU 4th & 26 at SMU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:12JMU 4th & 1 at SMU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−1.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:40JMU 4th & 3 at SMU 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:14SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:12JMU 4th & 1 at SMU 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%−4.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−16.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04SMU 4th & 3 at JMU 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%−2.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:42JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:30SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:53JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:14JMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:40SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:52JMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:04JMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:42SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:30JMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:58SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:04SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:27JMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.9%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
84.9%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-7
84.9%
Matt Davis sacked by Andrew Ankrah for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+7
84.9%
Josh Williams punt for 39 yds , John Miller returns for 7 yds to the JMads 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4616% → 18%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
84.2%
Vad Lee run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+20
84.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 20 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.1%
Vad Lee run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
84.1%
Rashard Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
84.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
84.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+10
84.1%
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 10 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.0%
Vad Lee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
82.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 6 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
82.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Curtis OliverSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+14
82.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
82.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
82.5%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 6
50
0
82.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 6
50
+25
82.3%
Josh Williams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by John Miller at the JMU 10 SMU Penalty, kick catching interference (Rodney Clemons) to the JMads 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Khalid Abdullah run for no gain to the JMads 25Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Khalid Abdullah run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.9%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to Rashard DavisSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
81.0%
Gunnar Kane punt for 41 yds , Darius Joseph returns for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:3780% → 82%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+51
80.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 51 yds to the JMads 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
81.0%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the JMads 6Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
80.7%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the JMads 6Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
81.9%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:2419% → 22%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Vad Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.5%
Vad Lee pass complete to Rashard Davis for 8 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
81.2%
Vad Lee run for 8 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.9%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to Rashard DavisSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
81.0%
Vad Lee pass complete to Cardon Johnson for 12 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
80.7%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
80.7%
Rashard Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
80.5%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+14
80.9%
Khalid Abdullah run for 14 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
80.4%
Khalid Abdullah run for no gain to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
80.6%
Khalid Abdullah run for 3 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
80.4%
Vad Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
80.5%
Khalid Abdullah run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
80.6%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to John MillerSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
78.2%
Ryan Maglio 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0378% → 77%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
78.1%
SMU Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+5
78.0%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
77.9%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-7
77.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Brandon Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 12
+8
77.3%
Josh Williams punt for 36 yds , John Miller returns for 8 yds to the JMads 20 JMU Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3024% → 29%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
50
+26
76.2%
Vad Lee pass complete to Rashard Davis for 26 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.6%
Cardon Johnson run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+21
75.8%
Vad Lee run for 21 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
75.6%
LEE,V pass incomplete to TAYLOR,D, PENALTY SMU pass interference (MONTES, Ajee) 1 yards to the SMU2, 1ST DOWN JMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.6%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
70.6%
Matt Davis run for 17 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
71.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
71.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-14
70.4%
Matt Davis sacked by Andrew Ankrah for a loss of 14 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 26
OWN 26
0
69.8%
Josh Williams punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMads 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
69.8%
Vad Lee pass complete to Cardon Johnson for 6 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+6
69.1%
Khalid Abdullah run for 6 yds to the JMads 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
69.2%
Vad Lee pass complete to Logan Boyd for 11 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
68.4%
Vad Lee run for 7 yds to the JMads 48 JMU Penalty, Offensive holding (John Miller) to the JMads 38Similar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 13
OWN 38
+24
69.1%
Vad Lee run for 24 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.3%
Vad Lee run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-5
68.0%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
68.4%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to John MillerSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+10
68.8%
Vad Lee pass complete to Deane Cheatham for 10 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
69.0%
Khalid Abdullah run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
64.7%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
65.1%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
63.5%
DAVIS,Matt rush for 4 yards to the SMU44 (JOHNSON,M), PENALTY SMU holding off-setting, PENALTY JMU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
65.6%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+12
64.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 12 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
65.8%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
66.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 3 yds to the JMads 42Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
66.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for no gain to the JMads 42Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-6
66.1%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the JMads 25 Matt Davis fumbled, forced by Andrew Ankrah, recovered by JMads Raven GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Vad Lee pass intercepted Jesse Montgomery return for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1161% → 72%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
61.2%
Matt Davis run for 18 yds to the JMU 34 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryheem Malone) to the JMads 44Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 2
OPP 44
+6
61.7%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
61.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 33 yds to the JMads 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
62.8%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the JMads 11Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
62.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the JMads 9Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
61.7%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to WALKER, Shelby, PENALTY JMU pass interference (BROWN,J) 6 yards to the JMU3, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:1634% → 36%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.2%
Cardon Johnson run for 12 yds to the JMads 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
65.2%
Cardon Johnson run for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
63.8%
Vad Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
64.1%
Vad Lee run for 14 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
66.8%
Vad Lee pass complete to Deane Cheatham for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
68.0%
Vad Lee pass intercepted Anthony Rhone return for no gain to the JMads 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
79.7%
Braeden West run for 36 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.1%
Khalid Abdullah run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
76.9%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd to the JMads 28Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
77.8%
Vad Lee run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down JMU Penalty, personal foul (Deane Cheatham) to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
76.5%
Vad Lee pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 9 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
74.4%
Khalid Abdullah run for 2 yds to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
74.8%
Khalid Abdullah run for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
74.0%
Khalid Abdullah run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
74.6%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to Rashard DavisSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
75.7%
Gunnar Kane punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Darius Joseph at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
78.5%
Matt Davis sacked by Andrew Ankrah for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+7
78.2%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
77.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
76.9%
Josh Williams punt for 38 yds, fair catch by John Miller at the JMads 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:4925% → 43%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
75.5%
Vad Lee run for 4 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
74.3%
Vad Lee pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 16 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
57.5%
Vad Lee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
65.6%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 1
50
+12
66.6%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 34 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by JMads Kyre Hawkins , return for 12 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:1144% → 51%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
55.8%
Khalid Abdullah run for 21 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
55.4%
Vad Lee pass complete to Rashard Davis for 8 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
55.4%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
56.9%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to Brandon RavenelSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+22
49.5%
Ryan Maglio 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:5955% → 61%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
54.8%
JMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
57.6%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
58.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
60.4%
Braeden West run for no gain to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
58.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
60.8%
Chad Hedlund 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0044% → 66%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.5%
Vad Lee run for 12 yds to the JMads 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
55.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 5 yds to the JMads 42Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+58
34.5%
Vad Lee pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 58 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1437% → 64%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
36.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+35
36.8%
Matt Davis run for 35 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
64.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 43%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.4%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
54.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 3 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.7%
Vad Lee pass incomplete to Rashard DavisSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
57.1%
Gunnar Kane punt for 59 yds , Darius Joseph returns for 7 yds to the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:3156% → 55%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
55.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
55.7%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+18
53.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 18 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
57.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
59.6%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
58.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+8
54.7%
Josh Williams punt for 43 yds , John Miller returns for 8 yds to the JMads 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:2949% → 75%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
50.7%
Vad Lee run for 27 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
25.1%
Vad Lee pass complete to Deane Cheatham for 52 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
27.7%
Braeden West run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
27.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
26.3%
JMU Penalty, offside defense (Brandon Brown) to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
27.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
29.8%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
31.3%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the JMads 48Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-6
31.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
26.9%
Josh Williams punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMads 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 29INT
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:0081% → 83%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.0%
Khalid Abdullah run for 4 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
18.7%
Vad Lee run for 7 yds to the JMads 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
18.6%
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for no gain to the JMads 31Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
19.0%
Khalid Abdullah run for 4 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
19.1%
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 10 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
17.1%
Vad Lee run for 35 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
16.3%
Vad Lee run for 4 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
16.3%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+27
16.8%
Vad Lee pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for 27 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:0613% → 48%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
12.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
11.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
14.5%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to GAINES, J., PENALTY JMU pass interference (STEELE,G) 15 yards to the JMU42, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
15.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 38 yds to the JMads 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.1%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5344% → 90%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
44.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 8 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+30
45.7%
Xavier Jones run for 30 yds to the JMads 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
48.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMads 19Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
89.5%
Matt Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 32TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:3722% → 95%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.7%
Vad Lee run for 8 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
73.1%
Vad Lee pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 6 yds to the JMads 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
74.1%
Vad Lee pass complete to Rashard Davis for 17 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
70.6%
Vad Lee pass complete to Rashard Davis for 9 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
67.1%
Vad Lee run for 4 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
68.4%
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-5
71.3%
LEE,V pass incomplete to RAVENEL,B, PENALTY JMU false start 5 yards to the SMU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
71.3%
Vad Lee run for 14 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
4.8%
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 33END OF GAME
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:1920% → 19%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
19.8%
Matt Davis run for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
23.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Andrew Ankrah for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 37 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by SMU Prescott Line , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
14.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+15
13.7%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to YENGA, Jonathan (TAYLOR,D), PENALTY JMU roughing passer 15 yards to the JMU48, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
18.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Dominique TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
Vad Lee pass complete to John Miller for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Maglio KICK)
-62.8
TD · Q4 2:04
Matt Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+41.3
TD · Q4 3:58
Matt Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+32.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com