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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:38 · Justin Wain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the TEMPLE 29 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Temp 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:59: Jahad Thomas 9 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick) — TEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 14:44: Jahad Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 44 — TEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 3:59: Justin Wain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 38 — TEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:21: Austin Jones 37 Yd Field Goal — TEM win probability +3.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:41: Romond Deloatch 6 Yd pass from P.J. Walker (Austin Jones Kick) — TEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:38TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 46, tiedClose callPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:47CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.0%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q1 2:16CONN 4th & 3 at TEM 45, down 7Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it21.0%52% to convertField goal20.3%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call20.7%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:17TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.2%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q1 0:00CONN 4th & 1 at TEM 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%70% to convertField goal19.9%−1.232% to makePunt20.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 13:33TEM 4th & 13 at CONN 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.521% to convertField goal78.9%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q2 12:00CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 17, down 7Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:18TEM 4th & 2 at CONN 3, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.3%49% to convertField goalTheir call79.4%−0.993% to makePunt75.9%−4.4average punt
- Q2 3:59CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 0:56TEM 4th & 6 at CONN 38, up 10Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.8%40% to convertField goal82.7%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call81.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 13:20CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%average punt
- Q3 8:10TEM 4th & 1 at CONN 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.3%71% to convertField goal83.0%−1.375% to makePunt78.7%−5.6average punt
- Q3 6:21TEM 4th & 11 at CONN 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snapGo for it83.7%−1.125% to convertField goalTheir call84.8%77% to makePunt79.9%−4.8average punt
- Q3 4:58CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 17, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.2%−1.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q4 11:08TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 17, up 20Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:38CONN 4th & 14 at CONN 28, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 5:51CONN 4th & 16 at TEM 28, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%60% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:59TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:41TEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:40TEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1283% → 82%
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
82.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 6 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
82.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 6 yds to the Temp 46Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
82.0%
Alex Starzyk punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brian Lemelle at the UConn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3618% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3182% → 83%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
81.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 16 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 5:2418% → 19%
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5382% → 81%
Q1 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
81.1%
Alex Starzyk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Nick Vitale at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6FUMBLE5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0019% → 19%
Q1 0:20
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
80.7%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+7
81.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 10 yards to the UConn 42 Arkeel Newsome fumbled, recovered by Temp Stephaun Marshall , return for 7 yds to the UConn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1183% → 81%
CONNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2019% → 18%
Q2 12:00
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
82.0%
Justin Wain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9FG12 plays · 56 yds · 5:3282% → 83%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
82.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 6 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
82.4%
David Hood run for no gain to the Temp 47 David Hood fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
82.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 15 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
82.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 11 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
82.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 4 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
82.6%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1017% → 16%
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
82.6%
Garrett Anderson pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-6
81.8%
Garrett Anderson sacked by Tyler Matakevich and Jarred Alwan for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
83.8%
Justin Wain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4984% → 85%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
83.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 7 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
84.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Colin Thompson for 11 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
84.9%
P.J. Walker sacked by Cam Stapleton for a loss of 8 yards to the 50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4815% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2517% → 15%
Q3 13:20
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
85.3%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FG13 plays · 51 yds · 6:3485% → 90%
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
84.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 5 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
84.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kip Patton for 4 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
86.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 13 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
86.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 8 yds to the UConn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0711% → 10%
Q3 4:58
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
90.3%
Justin Wain punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5692% → 98%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
91.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 5 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
92.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Michael Felton for 6 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+16
92.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 16 yds to the UConn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17INT8 plays · 37 yds · 1:532% → 1%
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Luke Carrezola for 4 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 9 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
98.5%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 13 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.6%
Tim Boyle pass intercepted Sean Chandler return for no gain to the Temp 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
CONNDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
98.9%
Tim Boyle sacked by Praise Martin-Oguike for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+33
99.0%
Justin Wain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the TEMPLE 29 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Temp 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:4599% → 100%
CONNDrive 21FG9 plays · 47 yds · 2:390% → 1%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 17 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Josh Marriner for 11 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+25
99.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Josh Marriner for 25 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-8
99.9%
Tim Boyle sacked by Haason Reddick for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22END OF GAME15 plays · 30 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+15
99.8%
Walker, P.J. pass incomplete to Jennings, Adonis, PENALTY UCONN pass interference 15 yards to the UCONN17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:41
Romond Deloatch 6 Yd pass from P.J. Walker (Austin Jones Kick)
+5.4
FG · Q3 6:21
Austin Jones 37 Yd Field Goal
+3.6
PUNT · Q2 3:59
Justin Wain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 38
+2