Try the model
SMU

SMU 0 at Memphis 63

MEM
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:53 · Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds , Mose Frazier returns for 18 yds to the Memph 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+35.6Home team on offense+17.1Score differential+12.5Blowout margin+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Garbage-time factor+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:42: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:02: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Frank Wims for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q1 3:20: Xavier Jones run for no gain Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by Memph Leonard Pegues , return for 26 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:43: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:37: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:38SMU 4th & 24 at SMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:46MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:42SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 10 at MEM 14, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:53SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:17SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 18, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:52MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 44, up 56
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:13SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 6, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56MEM 4th & 2 at SMU 27, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:23SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 30, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:03SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 6, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41MEM 4th & 17 at SMU 34, up 56
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 26 at SMU 45, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:49SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 48, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:52MEM 4th & 1 at SMU 21, up 63
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:52MEM 4th & 2 at SMU 11, up 63
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:38MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:42MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:02MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:00MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:43MEM Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:37MEM Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:23MEM Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
93.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
93.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.4%
Josh Williams punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0193% → 93%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
93.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+15
93.2%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to JONES, Tevin, PENALTY SMU pass interference (JEANLYS, W.) 15 yards to the SMU46, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
93.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
93.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.1%
Matt Davis run for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26 Xavier Jones fumbled, forced by Shareef White,Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 24
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Josh Williams punt for 29 yds, downed at the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.9%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
92.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
92.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 3:067% → 8%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
92.6%
Prescott Line run for 8 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
92.6%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to MALONE, Ryheem, PENALTY SMU pass interference (MALONE, Ryheem) 15 yards to the SMU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 25
OWN 22
-3
92.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 28
OWN 19
-1
92.7%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 29
OWN 18
-1
92.7%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 30
OWN 17
+10
92.3%
WILLIAMS, Josh punt 26 yards to the SMU43, FRAZIER, Mose return to the SMU0, clock 06:25, NO PLAY, WILLIAMS, Josh punt 26 yards to the SMU43, FRAZIER, Mose return 3 yards to the SMU40, PENALTY MEM illegal block (PORTER, Darian) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1st and 10, MEM ball on 50 yardline.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:4392% → 93%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
50
+34
92.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 34 yds Mose Frazier fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
92.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
92.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose Frazier, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.0%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Reggis BallSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
93.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Jackson Koonce punt blocked by Ricky Hunter, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 21 blocked by Ricky HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Frank Wims for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:426% → 3%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.3%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
96.6%
Xavier Jones run for no gain Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by Memph Leonard Pegues , return for 26 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE
15 plays · 48 yds · 3:203% → 3%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
96.5%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
96.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Braeden West, broken up by Reggis Ball for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Reggis Ball) to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
97.1%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to WEST, Braeden, PENALTY MEM pass interference (MORLEY, Chris) 15 yards to the MEM30, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
97.0%
Matt Davis run for 9 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+7
96.9%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
97.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+10
96.9%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 37 Josh Williams fumbled, forced by Leonard Pegues, recovered by Memph Arthur Maulet , return for 10 yds to the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:3398% → 97%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
97.5%
Sam Craft run for 18 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
97.6%
Mose Frazier run for 30 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
97.9%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.9%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-12
97.9%
Matt Davis sacked by Dontrell Nelson for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 20
OWN 30
+18
97.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds , Mose Frazier returns for 18 yds to the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:4897% → 98%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
98.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
98.8%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
98.8%
Matt Davis sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
98.8%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Dontrell Nelson return for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0298% → 99%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+22
98.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 7 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Troy Castle) to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
98.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Frank Wims for 21 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.4%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Darius Joseph, broken up by Dontrell NelsonSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 12 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
99.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 7
50
+18
99.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEMPHIS 47 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Ricky Hunter) to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
99.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+34
99.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 28 Darrel Colbert Jr. fumbled, forced by Chauncey Lanier, recovered by Memph DeMarco Montgomery , return for 34 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
99.3%
Tevin Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
99.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.5%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+6
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+2
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 18 SMU Penalty, crackback ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+6
99.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 42 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.5%
Mose Frazier run for 3 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
99.5%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.7%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
99.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 29 yds, downed at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Clay Holgorsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Darius Lee run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
99.7%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
99.7%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
99.8%
N/A punt for 31 yds, downed at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen run for 6 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+9
99.8%
Darius Lee run for 9 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.8%
Jackson Dillon run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+34
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 34 yds Daniel Hurd fumbled, forced by Jackson Mitchell, recovered by SMU Jackson MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.9%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
99.9%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.8%
Robert Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
99.8%
Robert Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
99.8%
Robert Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Robert Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 12
OPP 29
-5
99.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 17
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 26 yds, downed at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 5 yards Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by Memph Jackson Dillon , return for 1 yd, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 36 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 47
-8
99.9%
Darrel Colbert Jr. sacked by Phillip Sumpter for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Robert Davis run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Robert Davis run for 3 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass intercepted Cedric Lancaster return for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
100.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
100.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
100.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. sacked by Phillip Sumpter for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31DOWNS
14 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 14 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+14
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Devonte Howard for 14 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for no gain to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+28
99.9%
Robert Davis run for 28 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Robert Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
99.9%
Robert Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+11
99.9%
Darius Lee run for 11 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen run for 2 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Darius Lee run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Darius Lee run for 6 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Darius Lee run for no gain to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 2
OPP 11
-5
99.9%
Darius Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q1 3:20
Xavier Jones run for no gain Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by Memph Leonard Pegues , return for 26 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q1 4:02
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Frank Wims for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 5:42
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com