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USF

South Florida 44 at UCF 3

UCF
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:48 · Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior−15.8Home team on offense−49.0Score differential−37.5Garbage-time factor−18.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:29: Chris Barr 4 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +1.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:07: Sean Price 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:42: Quinton Flowers 3 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +5.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Emilio Nadelman 44 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:51: Quinton Flowers 5 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:00UCF 4th & 7 at USF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37UCF 4th & 5 at USF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37USF 4th & 8 at UCF 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:51UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30USF 4th & 4 at USF 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 13, down 4
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:16UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 37, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36UCF 4th & 8 at USF 28, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:44UCF 4th & 2 at USF 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:48UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47USF 4th & 9 at USF 19, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11USF 4th & 9 at UCF 23, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:36UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 12, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:58USF 4th & 8 at UCF 25, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:44UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 35, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:29USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:07USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:42USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:51USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:50USF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:088% → 10%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+30
8.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 30 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
8.4%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+5
8.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
9.0%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
9.0%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+23
9.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 23 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
9.7%
Nick Patti run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
9.9%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
10.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
10.1%
Matthew Wright 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5990% → 89%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
10.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
10.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
10.6%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
10.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
10.9%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
11.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Ryeshene Bronson) to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+13
11.5%
Rodney Adams run for 13 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-5
11.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Touching (Chris Barr) to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
11.7%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
12.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+28
12.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 28 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.0%
Chris Barr 4 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2312% → 11%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
11.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
11.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+13
11.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 54 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 13 yds to the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1288% → 87%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
11.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+4
12.0%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+10
12.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 10 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
12.1%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-5
12.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
12.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon PopeSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+14
13.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 14 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
13.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1113% → 13%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
13.1%
C.J. Jones run for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+1
13.4%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
13.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
13.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4487% → 89%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
50
+5
13.2%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
13.3%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
13.4%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
13.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
13.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+9
14.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
13.5%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre Neal) to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
13.7%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.7%
Sean Price 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7INT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:3812% → 13%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
11.7%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+8
11.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+6
11.7%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+3
11.5%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+8
11.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
12.5%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
12.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+12
13.0%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 12 yds to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2988% → 93%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
11.7%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
11.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+13
11.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
11.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
11.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+27
11.8%
Marlon Mack run for 27 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
11.7%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
11.7%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.6%
Quinton Flowers 3 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:489% → 9%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
8.7%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
8.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+19
8.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 19 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
8.9%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+15
8.7%
Taj McGowan run for 15 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
9.3%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-5
9.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tristan Payton) to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
8.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+8
8.3%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
8.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:2994% → 96%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
6.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 18 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
5.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
5.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
4.5%
Emilio Nadelman 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5895% → 98%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
5.1%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
5.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+4
4.9%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
4.7%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
4.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+12
4.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 12 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
3.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+16
3.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 16 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.8%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
3.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.1%
Quinton Flowers 5 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:363% → 3%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
2.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Aaron Cochran for 8 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
2.8%
Joseph Puopolo run for 5 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
2.9%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
2.7%
Justin Holman run for 15 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
3.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Cal BloomSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
2.9%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
2.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
2.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
1.4%
Marlon Mack run for 19 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
1.3%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+11
1.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
1.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+26
0.6%
Sean Price 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:471% → 0%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
0.7%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+10
0.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 10 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
0.4%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.4%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
0.5%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Domenic Spencer for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+3
0.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
0.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
0.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
0.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Chavis Dickey) to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
0.4%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+22
0.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
0.3%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
0.3%
Emilio Nadelman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
0.2%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.2%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
0.2%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+9
0.2%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
0.2%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+11
0.2%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
0.2%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
0.2%
Emilio Nadelman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:520% → 0%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-8
0.1%
Bo Schneider sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+4
0.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 4 yds to the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
0.1%
Corian Hamilton run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:42
Quinton Flowers 3 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-5.1
TD · Q2 12:07
Sean Price 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-3
TD · Q1 5:29
Chris Barr 4 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com