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NAVY

Navy 31 at Houston 52

HOU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Alex Barta punt for 48 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 28 yds to the Houst 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense+4.7Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:14: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:59: Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:37: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD NAVY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +10.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:26: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 62 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +9.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:57: Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +8.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:40HOU 4th & 2 at NAVY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:15HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:32HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−6.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44NAVY 4th & 7 at HOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:37NAVY 4th & 2 at HOU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−2.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:31NAVY 4th & 6 at HOU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−7.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:26NAVY 4th & 8 at HOU 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:05NAVY 4th & 2 at HOU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:41NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:35HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:40NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:21HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:14NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:37HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:26HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:57NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:27HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:46NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:41HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:2556% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-4
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
56.2%
WARD Jr., Greg pass incomplete to ALLEN, Chance, PENALTY NAVY offside (ANTHONY, Will) 5 yards to the HOU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+10
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 10 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+28
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 28 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
56.2%
Brandon Wilson run for 3 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+12
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 12 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Lorentez BarbourSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:5542% → 45%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+52
58.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 52 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
57.6%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Houst 19 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+10
57.8%
Dishan Romine run for 10 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
57.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+13
57.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 13 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1957% → 63%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.6%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
57.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 4 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
56.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-3
57.4%
Brandon Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
56.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
57.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
57.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+3
56.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
57.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
57.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+23
57.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 23 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
62.9%
Brandon Wilson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2139% → 38%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
60.6%
DeBrandon Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+9
61.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Shawn White for 9 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
60.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for no gain to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
61.6%
Alex Barta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
62.2%
Brandon Wilson run for 8 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
62.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
61.9%
Brandon Wilson run for 3 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
62.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
63.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
62.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Javin WebbSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
61.5%
Logan Piper punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 3:0338% → 48%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
62.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+10
62.9%
Dishan Romine run for 10 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
62.3%
Dishan Romine run for 2 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
62.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 41 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.7%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
51.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1557% → 68%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.3%
Javin Webb run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
58.2%
Brandon Wilson run for 9 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.7%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+25
59.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 25 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
60.0%
Brandon Wilson run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+7
59.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+14
58.3%
Brandon Wilson run for 14 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
60.3%
Brandon Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
60.3%
Brandon Wilson run for 5 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:1535% → 31%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
65.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
66.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 20 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.4%
Quentin Ezell run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
64.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+3
66.6%
Jamir Tillman run for 3 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+28
69.0%
Alex Barta punt for 48 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 28 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:3070% → 77%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
70.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
69.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+14
69.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
50
0
72.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
50
+13
71.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
72.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+45
76.8%
Ty Cummings 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
71.5%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
70.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:3775% → 86%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
75.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 19 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
75.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+12
75.4%
Brandon Wilson run for 12 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
75.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
75.4%
Brandon Wilson run for 4 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD NAVY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:0614% → 17%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
85.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
84.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 14 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
84.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
83.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
83.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
84.4%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
83.9%
REYNOLDS, Keenan deep pass incomplete to WILSON, Thomas (WILLIAMS, Khalil), QB hurry by THURMAN, Nick, PENALTY HOU holding (McDONALD, Adrian) 10 yards to the HOU26, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
82.7%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-2
82.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-1
83.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
83.5%
Austin Grebe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 3:0587% → 97%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
87.1%
Brandon Wilson run for 6 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
87.2%
Demarcus Ayers run for 5 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
87.4%
Brandon Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+3
87.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+62
96.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 62 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:294% → 13%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+49
96.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 49 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-12
95.7%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 12 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 22
OPP 45
0
96.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+14
96.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 14 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+23
96.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 23 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
95.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.8%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 3:3092% → 99%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
92.0%
Brandon Wilson run for 18 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+20
92.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to John Leday for 20 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.7%
Brandon Wilson run for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
92.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
92.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
92.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 18 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.6%
Demarcus Ayers pass complete to Linell Bonner for 29 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:412% → 6%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+39
98.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
98.6%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
98.5%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+12
98.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Chris Swain for 12 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
98.6%
Demond Brown run for 3 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-9
98.5%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Elandon Roberts and Tyus Bowser for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+31
98.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 31 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 52 yds · 6:0597% → 100%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
96.5%
Brandon Wilson run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
96.5%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+19
96.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 19 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.6%
Brandon Wilson run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
96.6%
Brandon Wilson run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+13
97.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Javin Webb for 13 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
97.7%
Brandon Wilson run for 7 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
97.7%
Brandon Wilson run for no gain to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
97.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Javin Webb for 4 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.7%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.7%
Javin Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Brandon Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18END OF GAME
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
99.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
99.6%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+39
99.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:37
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds for a TD NAVY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 2:26
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 62 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q4 14:57
Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com