Try the model
NAVY

Navy 44 at Tulsa 21

TLSA
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:35 · Alex Barta punt for 46 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−53.3Score differential−38.4Pregame prior−2.6Garbage-time factor−20.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:29: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:09: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +8.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:16: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:04: Zack Langer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:03: Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 14:20TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02NAVY 4th & 4 at TLSA 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:36TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:14TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:03NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:36TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 40, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:07TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:35NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 49, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:28NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:29NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:09NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:16TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:05NAVY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:04TLSA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:03NAVY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:52NAVY Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:55TLSA Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2530% → 30%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 14:20
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:5370% → 69%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+32
30.4%
Demond Brown run for 32 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
30.4%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
30.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
30.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
31.0%
Dishan Romine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
31.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Tulsa 32 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Tulsa Trent MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4232% → 33%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
32.1%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+7
32.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+42
32.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1567% → 66%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
32.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 12 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
32.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
32.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
33.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 36 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+35
33.6%
Alex Barta punt for 51 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 35 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
34.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 22 yds Keyarris Garrett fumbled, forced by Brendon Clements, recovered by Navy Daiquan ThomassonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:1267% → 69%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
33.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+70
30.7%
Toneo Gulley 70 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5331% → 31%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
30.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
30.9%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+11
30.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 11 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
31.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
31.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
31.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
32.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-3
31.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
31.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:5869% → 70%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
31.0%
Demond Brown run for 14 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
30.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
30.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
30.1%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
29.9%
Demond Brown run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
29.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
29.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
29.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+10
29.7%
Dishan Romine run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
29.4%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
29.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+1
29.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
30.4%
Austin Grebe 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1431% → 30%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-9
31.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Micah Thomas and Will Anthony for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
30.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
30.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
23.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0125% → 24%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
24.6%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+7
24.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-3
24.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+13
23.3%
Dane Evans run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+2
23.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5778% → 87%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
22.4%
Chris Swain run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
21.8%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
21.6%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
21.7%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:2916% → 24%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
16.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
16.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+22
16.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 22 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
16.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 11 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
16.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
16.6%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+8
16.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.3%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 0:5780% → 80%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
20.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
19.8%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
19.9%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+1
20.3%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+4
20.1%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
20.0%
Alex Barta punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15SF
3 plays · -23 yds · 0:4620% → 18%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
20.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+8
19.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
17.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards, TEAM fumbled, forced by Will Anthony, recovered by Tulsa for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:2485% → 91%
Q3 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
15.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.7%
Demond Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4112% → 19%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
12.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
12.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
12.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
12.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+19
12.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 19 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
13.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
12.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
12.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
19.4%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4786% → 96%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
14.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 13 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
14.2%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
13.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
13.4%
Dishan Romine run for 5 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
12.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+44
12.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 44 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
12.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 14 yds · 3:395% → 4%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
5.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
5.3%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Quincy Adams) to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
5.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-15
5.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+13
4.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+4
4.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+5
4.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
4.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-8
4.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
4.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:5398% → 100%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
2.4%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
2.4%
Demond Brown run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
2.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Chad Lewellyn for 16 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
2.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+10
1.9%
Dishan Romine run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
1.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.5%
Brandon Colon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.8%
Zack Langer run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
0.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
0.6%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
0.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.7%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
0.7%
Zack Langer run for 15 yds to the Navy 28 Zack Langer fumbled, forced by Daiquan Thomasson, recovered by Navy Amos MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.5%
Tago Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
0.5%
Tago Smith run for 9 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.4%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
0.4%
Tago Smith run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
0.3%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+1
0.3%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+2
0.3%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
0.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 9
OPP 46
-5
0.2%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 14
OWN 49
+7
0.2%
Alex Barta punt for 46 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 4:330% → 1%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
0.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
0.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+8
0.2%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.2%
Brewer, D'Angelo rush for 1 yard to the TULSA26, PENALTY TULSA illegal block (Hobbs, Justin) 10 yards to the TULSA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+1
0.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+9
0.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
0.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 22 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.1%
Justin Hobbs run for 4 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+12
0.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
0.1%
Brewer, D'Angelo rush for 1 yard to the NAVY35, PENALTY TULSA holding 10 yards to the NAVY45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 19
OPP 45
+13
0.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 13 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+18
0.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 18 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
1.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
0.4%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
0.4%
Shawn White run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+13
0.3%
Chris High run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
0.3%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
0.3%
Chris High run for no gain to the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:09
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q3 7:03
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 10:29
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com