Try the model
TULN

Tulane 21 at SMU 49

SMU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Zachary Block punt for 37 yds , Courtland Sutton returns for no gain to the SMU 24 Courtland Sutton fumbled, recovered by SMU Courtland Sutton
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense+24.8Score differential+20.0Pregame prior+5.4Garbage-time factor+2.6Blowout margin+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:25: Matt Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:06: Tanner Lee pass complete to Larry Dace for 27 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +4.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:01: Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:01: Xavier Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +14.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:20: Xavier Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:27TULN 4th & 8 at SMU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:22SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:30TULN 4th & 9 at SMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 10:21TULN 4th & 8 at SMU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:01TULN 4th & 14 at TULN 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:19SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 45, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:00SMU 4th & 20 at TULN 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TULN 4th & 11 at SMU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:15TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 21, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 49, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:30SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:25SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:06TULN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:01SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:01SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:20SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:00TULN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:15SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:21TULN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:04SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
61.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
61.0%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
61.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
61.0%
Josh Williams punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
60.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
60.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
60.8%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
60.9%
Peter Picerelli punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
61.0%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+2
60.9%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
60.8%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+15
60.7%
Josh Williams punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 34 SMU Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4MISSED FG TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4340% → 38%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
60.3%
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
60.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Devon BreauxSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
60.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Devon Breaux, broken up by William JeanlysSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+66
62.3%
RC Cox 66 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Chad Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
62.4%
Sherman Badie run for 11 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
62.3%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+11
62.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
62.0%
Devin Glenn run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-4
62.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+5
62.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Josh Rounds for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
62.4%
Peter Picerelli punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 5:2164% → 72%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
63.8%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+12
63.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 12 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+7
63.5%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
63.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 16 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
64.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
64.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+22
64.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 22 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
64.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulan 36Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+17
64.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Derek Longoria for 17 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
64.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 6 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
71.8%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:1430% → 36%
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
69.7%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (William Jeanlys) to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.5%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
69.2%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 4
50
0
68.9%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 4
50
+5
69.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 5 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
68.9%
Rob Kelley run for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+8
68.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 8 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
69.1%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
64.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Larry Dace for 27 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:0066% → 76%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+31
65.9%
Xavier Jones run for 31 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
67.1%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
67.3%
Courtland Sutton pass complete to Darius Joseph for 30 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
67.5%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
67.5%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the Tulan 11Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+8
67.0%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.5%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.5%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
73.2%
HILLIARD, D. rush for loss of 1 yard to the TLN24 (McCLENEGHEN, A.), PENALTY TLN holding (UZDAVINIS, A.) 10 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
73.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Devon BreauxSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
73.5%
Sherman Badie run for 11 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.5%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.8%
Zachary Block punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Courtland Sutton at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3077% → 89%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
76.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
76.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+4
76.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
77.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 3 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
75.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.2%
Xavier Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.7%
Tanner Lee sacked by Zach Wood for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
86.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Jonathan YengaSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Zachary Block punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Courtland Sutton at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:2690% → 97%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
90.0%
Matt Davis run for 20 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-9
91.1%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (Kevin Thomas) to the Tulan 38Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 17
OPP 38
-14
91.0%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to JONES, Xavier for 1 yard to the TLN37 (THOMAS, Eric), PENALTY SMU personal foul (SUTTON, C.) 14 yards to the SMU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 31
OWN 48
+21
90.8%
Matt Davis run for 21 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+18
90.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
90.8%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 18Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+4
91.2%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the Tulan 14Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+12
90.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 12 yds to the Tulan 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
90.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 7Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.3%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.4%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Rob Kelley run for 9 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.8%
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 5 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Larry DaceSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Zachary Block punt for 37 yds , Courtland Sutton returns for no gain to the SMU 24 Courtland Sutton fumbled, recovered by SMU Courtland SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.1%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+11
98.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 11 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-9
98.1%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+12
98.0%
Matt Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+6
98.0%
Josh Williams punt for 46 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 6 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:471% → 6%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
98.5%
Sherman Badie run for 14 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.4%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+22
98.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 22 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
98.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Larry Dace for 12 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
98.2%
TULANE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
98.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-10
98.3%
HILLIARD, D. rush for 6 yards to the SMU19 (MITCHELL, J.), PENALTY TLN holding (TAYLOR, Chris) 10 yards to the SMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 25
OPP 35
0
98.3%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 25
OPP 35
+22
98.5%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Sherman Badie for 7 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Andrew McCleneghen) to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.2%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Trey Scott for 8 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
98.3%
Rob Kelley run for 4 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Rob Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.6%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
96.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+11
96.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.6%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-15
96.6%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Thomas) to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+3
96.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 3 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+2
96.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 2 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Josh Williams punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:254% → 2%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
96.5%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+8
96.5%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Josh Rounds for 8 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.3%
Rob Kelley run for 4 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+36
96.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 36 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Larry DaceSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
96.0%
Sherman Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
97.6%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Sherman BadieSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Peter Picerelli punt for 43 yds, downed at the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:3198% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.4%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chad Pursley) to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
98.4%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+17
98.4%
Prescott Line run for 17 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.4%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+65
98.5%
Matt Davis run for 65 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.6%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Rob Kelley, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
JOSEPH, Jordy pass incomplete to BADIE, Sherman, PENALTY SMU offside defense (JOHNSON, Kevin) 5 yards to the TLN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Sherman Badie run for 3 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
99.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Zachary Block punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Courtland Sutton at the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
99.8%
JONES, Xavier rush for 3 yards to the SMU26 (FRANKLIN, J.;COOPER, Tristan), PENALTY SMU holding (BRIGGS, Chauncy) 10 yards to the SMU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+2
99.8%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+1
99.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+5
99.8%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+1
99.8%
Josh Williams punt for 43 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 1 yd to the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:510% → 1%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Larry DaceSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+24
99.9%
Sherman Badie run for 24 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
Jordy Joseph run for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+23
99.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 23 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Sherman Badie run for 5 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Charles Jones for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+5
99.3%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (Jackson Mitchell) to the Tulan 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.6%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+12
99.6%
Xavier Jones run for 12 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.6%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 19Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Braeden West run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Jordy Joseph run for 8 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+12
99.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
99.9%
Jordy Joseph sacked by Zelt Minor for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:01
Xavier Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+14
TD · Q2 10:01
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q1 1:25
Matt Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com