Try the model
HOU

Houston 17 at UConn 20

CONN
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+7.6CONN 74.3%Bobby Puyol 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 13 · Q3 1:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:17 · Bobby Puyol 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−8.7Home team on offense+14.7Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score differential+2.0Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 1:17: Bobby Puyol 39 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +7.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:55: Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 38 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +22.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 9:48: Garrett Anderson pass complete to Noel Thomas for 45 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +19.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:36: Bobby Puyol kickoff for 59 yds , Brandon Wilson return for 94 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +17.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:07: Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 48 — CONN win probability +23.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:40HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:36HOU 4th & 11 at CONN 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59CONN 4th & 8 at HOU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:48CONN 4th & 13 at HOU 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:48HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15CONN 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:39CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:10HOU 4th & 7 at CONN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:37CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:45HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.6%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:17CONN 4th & 1 at HOU 22, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%−3.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−12.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:36CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:44HOU 4th & 9 at CONN 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.6%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:50CONN 4th & 6 at HOU 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:40CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:55HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:48CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:36HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:2022% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
21.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 42 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
22.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+15
22.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 15 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
22.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
22.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
23.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
24.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
24.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
24.2%
Logan Piper punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
25.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 7 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
25.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-11
24.9%
SHIRREFFS, Byr. rush for no gain to the UCONN33 (ADAMS, Matthew), PENALTY UCONN holding (VECHERY, Brend.) 11 yards to the UCONN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+21
24.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Elandon Roberts) to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
25.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 43Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 43Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
25.0%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UConn 38Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+7
24.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 7 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
24.9%
Justin Wain punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
28.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
28.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
28.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
28.6%
Logan Piper punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
30.0%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+9
29.6%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
29.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
29.4%
Justin Wain punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:3269% → 69%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
31.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
30.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+25
31.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 25 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
30.1%
POSTMA, Kyle pass complete to AYERS, Demarcus for 46 yards to the UCONN5 (MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY HOU holding 10 yards to the HOU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+4
31.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+23
31.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 23 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
31.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+20
32.0%
Kyle Postma run for 20 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
31.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the UConn 8Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
31.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 11Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
32.3%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
31.5%
Ty Cummings 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
32.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, substitution infraction (-2 Yards) to the UConn 3Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+29
32.7%
Ron Johnson run for 29 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
33.2%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-3
34.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
32.7%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Josh Marriner for 8 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
34.4%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
34.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
33.2%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
32.5%
Justin Wain punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
34.8%
Demarcus Ayers run for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
35.0%
Kyle Postma run for 1 yd to the Houst 22 Kyle Postma fumbled, forced by Folorunso Fatukasi, recovered by UConn Cameron Stapleton HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5640% → 45%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
40.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+18
39.3%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 18 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
40.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
40.0%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
39.3%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
45.1%
Bobby Puyol 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds Demarcus Ayers fumbled, forced by Tyraiq Beals, recovered by UConn Junior JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
47.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
47.4%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
46.5%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
44.9%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
43.6%
Justin Wain punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
45.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
45.2%
Kyle Postma run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-9
45.8%
POSTMA, Kyle pass complete to McCLOSKEY, T. for 14 yards to the HOU33 (MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY HOU pass interference 9 yards to the HOU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 11
OWN 10
-4
46.3%
Kyle Postma sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 15
OWN 6
+15
47.2%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
45.2%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
46.3%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 10
OWN 21
-5
47.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Matthew Adams) to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
47.0%
Logan Piper punt for 52 yds, downed at the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 1:1348% → 52%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.2%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
47.8%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+16
49.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.9%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Alec Bloom for no gain to the UConn 48Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
53.4%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+4
52.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+3
51.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 8
50
0
52.3%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, downed at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
53.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
47.6%
Kyle Postma run for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
49.3%
Kyle Postma sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
50.9%
Logan Piper punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Josh MarrinerSimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 9 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
51.0%
Justin Wain punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
52.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
51.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+13
51.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
50
-3
49.4%
Kyle Postma sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+6
51.8%
Kyle Postma run for 6 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
50.1%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
52.9%
Logan Piper punt for 32 yds, downed at the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0560% → 59%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-5
59.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Alec Bloom) to the UConn 14Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
59.5%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+2
59.6%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 2 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+49
58.6%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, downed at the UCONN 45 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
56.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
54.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-11
54.4%
Kyle Postma run for 4 yds to the Houst 48 HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+10
59.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+1
57.2%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted Andrew Adams return for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:3568% → 74%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
68.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
67.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+14
65.6%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 14 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
68.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-2
68.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+8
66.7%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 8 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
74.3%
Bobby Puyol 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:2228% → 50%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
72.5%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+23
72.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
50
-2
68.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
74.0%
Kyle Postma run for 8 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
72.5%
Javin Webb run for 6 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
50.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 38 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0760% → 84%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.4%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 7 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
59.5%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Garrett Anderson for 12 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
63.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
63.8%
Ron Johnson run for 7 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
64.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+45
83.9%
Garrett Anderson pass complete to Noel Thomas for 45 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
66.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
66.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 9 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
68.5%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
68.6%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
68.0%
Tim Boyle run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
64.8%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
62.5%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0036% → 38%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
63.6%
Kyle Postma run for 4 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
63.7%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+10
65.3%
Kyle Postma run for 10 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.6%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.4%
Kyle Postma run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+16
62.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 16 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
55.5%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
56.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1786% → 87%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
85.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
50
+2
87.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
87.3%
Justin Wain punt for 35 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for no gain to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
84.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Hayden Daniels for 7 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+5
85.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Hayden Daniels for 5 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Junior LeeSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
84.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Jamar Summers return for no gain to the UConn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
91.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 27Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-2
90.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:07
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 48
+23.7
TD · Q4 13:55
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 38 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
-22
TD · Q4 9:48
Garrett Anderson pass complete to Noel Thomas for 45 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com