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CIN

Cincinnati 27 at South Florida 65

USF
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2015 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.8USF 82.6%A. Gantz 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 34 · Q2 9:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:17 · A. Gantz 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+16.4Score differential+13.1Blowout margin+7.3Pregame prior−8.4Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:52: Jordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +6.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:56: Marlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +12.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:17: A. Gantz 44 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +5.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:58: Sean Price 46 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:38: Marlon Mack 10 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:52CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:17CIN 4th & 8 at USF 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:58CIN 4th & 2 at USF 48, down 38
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:22CIN 4th & 9 at USF 22, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:01USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:33CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 40, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 4 at USF 23, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:57USF 4th & 2 at CIN 2, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:57CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 20, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:45USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:17USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:52USF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:56USF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:48USF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:58USF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:38USF Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:01CIN Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:05CIN Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:33USF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:22CIN Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:57USF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
37.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
37.6%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
37.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+11
37.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 11 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
37.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-1
37.6%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-13
37.6%
Hayden Moore sacked by Eric Lee for a loss of 13 yards to the Cincy 10 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by SFla Jamie Byrd , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5839% → 41%
Q1 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
38.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
38.9%
Rodney Adams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.5%
Sean Price 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
40.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 9 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+1
40.2%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
40.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 17 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
40.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 14 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
40.0%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-7
40.0%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+11
40.2%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Jamie Byrd return for 11 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:5443% → 51%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
43.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
43.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+48
43.8%
Marlon Mack run for 48 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
43.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.6%
Jordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
50.1%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-12
50.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 21
OWN 11
+15
50.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 15 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+7
50.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 62 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 7 yds to the SFla 33 CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4052% → 65%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
52.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
52.3%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+15
52.6%
Rodney Adams run for 15 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
53.2%
Rodney Adams run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
53.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
53.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+28
65.4%
Marlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
66.7%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
65.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
66.4%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
65.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
66.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
66.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+29
66.3%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 29 yds to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
71.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
71.6%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+16
71.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 16 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.6%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted, touchback. Zach Edwards return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1223% → 21%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
77.2%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
77.1%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+29
78.6%
H. Moore pass intercepted for a TD,D. Nichols return for 29 yds for a TD, (E. Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:3122% → 17%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Jamie ByrdSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
77.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 5 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+16
76.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.2%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+13
76.4%
Hayden Moore run for 13 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
76.8%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
76.6%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
76.0%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
75.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Devin AbrahamSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
76.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
82.6%
A. Gantz 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
88.4%
Sean Price 46 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
90.4%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
90.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+19
90.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 19 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
90.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
89.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
89.4%
Hayden Moore punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4892% → 96%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
92.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 27 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
92.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
92.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
92.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 8 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
92.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 14 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
92.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
92.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
92.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
92.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
92.6%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
96.4%
Marlon Mack 10 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+10
95.9%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 7 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
95.5%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
95.7%
Hayden Moore sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 35 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by SFla Eric Lee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:1197% → 97%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
96.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
97.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+20
97.0%
Darius Tice run for 20 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
97.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+49
97.4%
E. Nadelman 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:383% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.2%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
97.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 25 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
96.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
96.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+9
96.4%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
96.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Parker Ehinger) to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
96.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+6
96.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Hosey Williams for 6 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
96.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
97.8%
Andrew Gantz 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.4%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-1
98.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
98.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 12 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.5%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
98.5%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for 9 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.9%
Hosey Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+18
99.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
Hosey Williams run for 14 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.9%
Hosey Williams run for 9 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
98.8%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+36
98.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 36 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Tion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.1%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
99.1%
Darius Tice run for 12 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+27
99.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 27 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
98.7%
Chris Moore 54 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.4%
Steven Bench run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
50
+8
99.4%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.4%
Steven Bench pass complete to Chris Barr for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
99.4%
Steven Bench run for 5 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+21
99.3%
Steven Bench pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 21 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
Steven Bench 14 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.5%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.6%
Steven Bench run for 3 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
99.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Deatrick Nichols return for 12 yds to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Mark WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
99.8%
Tion Green run for 11 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Auggie Sanchez) to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Tion Green 11 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 14 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 12 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
99.8%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
99.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to Jordan Reed for 10 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Tyre McCants 2 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Michael Hill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-2
99.9%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 23 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:56
Marlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+12.2
TD · Q1 7:52
Jordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+6.8
TD · Q2 8:58
Sean Price 46 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com