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ECU

East Carolina 44 at UCF 7

UCF
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:54 · Caleb Houston punt for 55 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ECaro 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−43.1Pregame prior−13.1Score differential−25.6Garbage-time factor−13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:59: Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 19 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +1.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:50: Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +1.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:09: Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +5.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 4:57: Davis Plowman 45 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +2.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:12: Chris Hairston run for 39 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 3:17ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:28UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:53UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:34ECU 4th & 1 at UCF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57ECU 4th & 11 at UCF 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:10UCF 4th & 7 at ECU 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:43ECU 4th & 3 at UCF 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:15UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:54UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:07ECU 4th & 17 at UCF 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:17ECU 4th & 11 at UCF 19, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 27, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:01ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 46, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:16UCF 4th & 6 at ECU 44, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:07ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 46, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:35UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 19, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:36ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 46, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:03UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:59ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:50ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:09ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12ECU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:23ECU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:4717% → 19%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
17.0%
Justin Holman sacked by Joe Allely for 0 yards to the UCF 36 Justin Holman fumbled, recovered by UCF Jason Rae , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
17.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
17.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cedric Thompson for 5 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
17.6%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
17.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+44
18.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 44 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
18.3%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
19.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:5681% → 81%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
19.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 23 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
19.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
19.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
19.7%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
19.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
20.1%
Blake Kemp run for 7 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
20.4%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
20.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
19.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 19 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:4981% → 82%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
19.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 16 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
19.6%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
19.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
18.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:3219% → 21%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
18.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
19.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
19.7%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+2
19.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Aaron Cochran for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+16
19.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 16 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+8
19.9%
C.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
20.5%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
20.7%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Corey Seargent return for no gain to the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3880% → 80%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
19.6%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
19.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
19.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
20.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3320% → 19%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
20.3%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+11
20.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
20.8%
Holman, Justin pass complete to Payton, Tristan for 45 yards to the EASTCRLINA0, PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the UCF45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
20.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to D'erren WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
19.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to D'erren WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
19.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 20
OWN 45
0
19.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3280% → 79%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
20.0%
Chris Hairston run for 11 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
20.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 9 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-4
19.8%
- Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
20.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4720% → 20%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
20.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
20.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+1
20.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 52 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 36 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the ECaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:3179% → 85%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
20.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 5 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
20.6%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
20.9%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+23
20.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 23 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
19.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Quay Johnson for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
19.5%
Marquez Grayson run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
19.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+8
19.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+9
20.3%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
14.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4316% → 16%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
16.0%
C.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
16.4%
C.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
16.3%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
16.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:0884% → 87%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+35
15.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 35 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
14.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
14.6%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
14.6%
Blake Kemp run for 8 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
14.4%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
14.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
14.3%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
14.4%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 6
OPP 23
-5
15.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
12.6%
Davis Plowman 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5314% → 14%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.3%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
14.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
14.4%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Cedric ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
14.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:2888% → 93%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
12.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 8 yds Bryce Williams fumbled, recovered by ECaro Chris HairstonSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
11.9%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-15
11.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 25
OWN 26
+17
11.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 17 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
10.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
9.7%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
9.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+39
7.1%
Chris Hairston run for 39 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:418% → 9%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
8.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
8.1%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 17 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.7%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
8.5%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
8.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
9.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 54 yds, downed at the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
8.9%
- Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:459% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.4%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
9.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Cedric ThompsonSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
9.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
9.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0993% → 95%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
6.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 19 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
6.7%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
6.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 5 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
6.2%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
5.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.2%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to DaQuan BarnesSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
5.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.9%
Chris Hairston run for 7 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
5.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:186% → 5%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
5.5%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
4.9%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
4.7%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
4.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:3796% → 98%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.8%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
3.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+8
3.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 8 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+5
3.6%
UCF Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.5%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
3.5%
Kemp, Blake pass incomplete to Williams, Bryce, PENALTY UCF pass interference 6 yards to the EASTCRLINA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
3.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 20
OWN 39
-7
3.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for no gain to the ECaro 39 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-7 Yards) to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 13
OWN 32
+28
3.6%
Chris Hairston run for 28 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
3.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 14 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
3.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to DaQuan Barnes for 13 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
2.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
2.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Jordan Franks for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
1.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
1.8%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+10
1.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 55 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:2398% → 99%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
2.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+69
2.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 69 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-12
1.1%
Blake Kemp sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 24 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 22
OPP 24
+5
1.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
1.1%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
1.0%
Davis Plowman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
0.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.6%
Marquez Grayson run for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
0.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-6
0.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the UCF 9 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+5
0.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Anthony Scott for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
0.7%
Davis Plowman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
0.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
0.5%
Chris Hairston run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
50
-10
0.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+4
0.5%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+2
0.5%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
0.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Malik GraySimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
0.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:310% → 0%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for 12 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 1
50
+2
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+5
0.1%
Bo Schneider run for 5 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
0.2%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-1
0.2%
James Summers sacked by Monte Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+8
0.2%
James Summers pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.1%
Nick Patti run for 4 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
0.1%
Shawn Furlow run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
0.1%
Shawn Furlow run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+2
0.1%
Jason Connella run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
0.0%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:09
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-5.4
FG · Q2 4:57
Davis Plowman 45 yd FG GOOD
-2.8
TD · Q2 1:12
Chris Hairston run for 39 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com