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SMU

SMU 14 at Navy 55

NAVY
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:27 · Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+25.4Home team on offense+23.6Score differential+18.9Garbage-time factor+4.7Blowout margin+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:00: Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:37: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:54: Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:50: Demond Brown run for 19 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT BLOCKED) — NAVY win probability +3.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:57: Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 32 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:38SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:32NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:44SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48SMU 4th & 5 at NAVY 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27SMU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 2 at SMU 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:57NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:17SMU 4th & 6 at NAVY 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:59SMU 4th & 10 at NAVY 43, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:08NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:44NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:00NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:37NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:54SMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:50NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:57SMU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:19NAVY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:59NAVY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:24NAVY Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2212% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Xavier Castille for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
88.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
88.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+10
88.4%
Josh Williams punt for 46 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 10 yds to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 7:2488% → 88%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
88.1%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
88.1%
Demond Brown run for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
88.2%
Demond Brown run for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
88.2%
Dishan Romine run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+6
88.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 6 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+7
88.2%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
88.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
88.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+9
88.2%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
88.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
88.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+5
88.2%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+3
88.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
87.4%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
87.4%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Amos MasonSimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
87.5%
Josh Williams punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5788% → 90%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
87.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
87.4%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+6
87.3%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 6 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
87.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 3
50
0
87.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 3
50
+7
87.4%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 7 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
89.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 43 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
88.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Josh Williams punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2490% → 94%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
89.9%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
89.9%
Demond Brown run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+9
89.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to N/A for 9 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
90.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
90.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
90.0%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
94.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:127% → 6%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
93.4%
Matt Davis run for 11 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
93.2%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
50
0
93.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
50
+19
93.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 19 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
92.8%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
92.7%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY SMU personal foul 15 yards to the NAVY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 25
OPP 36
+15
93.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 15 yds Xavier Jones fumbled, forced by Lorentez Barbour, recovered by SMU Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
92.7%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
93.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
93.6%
Chad Hedlund 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Will Anthony Will Anthony return for no gain to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
97.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 6:432% → 5%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
97.7%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.8%
Prescott Line run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-1
97.7%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 2
50
+5
98.2%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
98.2%
Braeden West run for 22 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.1%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
98.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+10
98.2%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.1%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
98.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.9%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5197% → 97%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.0%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
96.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 8 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:1096% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.4%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
96.4%
Demond Brown run for 4 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
96.5%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
96.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
96.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
96.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by David JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
96.4%
Demond Brown run for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
96.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
96.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
96.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
96.6%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 6 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
99.6%
Demond Brown run for 19 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:531% → 3%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
99.5%
Xavier Jones run for 22 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.5%
Matt Davis sacked by D.J. Palmore and Amos Mason for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+18
99.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.5%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
99.5%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 32 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Craig ScottSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
97.6%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+1
97.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Alex Barta punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-13
97.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Amos Mason and Brandon Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+17
97.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 17 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2997% → 100%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 7
50
+5
97.3%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
97.3%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.3%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
98.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
99.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 32 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
99.9%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Daiquan Thomasson return for 22 yds to the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+15
99.9%
SMITH, Tago pass intercepted by RANDOLPH, S. at the SMU10, RANDOLPH, S. return to the SMU10 (LEWELLYN, Chad), PENALTY SMU roughing passer 15 yards to the SMU27, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
99.9%
Tago Smith run for 10 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 7 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
99.8%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Joshua Walker run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:35100% → 100%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Will Huntsman run for 5 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Shawn White run for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Tago Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
Garrett Krstich run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+13
100.0%
Darius Durall run for 13 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Darius Durall run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+8
100.0%
Garrett Krstich run for 8 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
100.0%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Don Pearson return for 11 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:00
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q2 7:37
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 0:54
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com