Try the model
MEM

Memphis 34 at Houston 35

HOU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:20 · Logan Piper punt for 49 yds , Mose Frazier returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 7 Mose Frazier fumbled, recovered by Memph Mose Frazier
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−0.6Pregame prior+9.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:52: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +16.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:58: Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +14.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 12:56: Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +17.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:49: Javin Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +19.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: Kyle Postma run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +53.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:32MEM 4th & 13 at HOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:19MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:20HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:56HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:46MEM 4th & 9 at HOU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:32HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:02MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:36HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 32, down 13
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20HOU 4th & 23 at HOU 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:52HOU 4th & 9 at MEM 19, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:36HOU 4th & 5 at MEM 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:00MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:19MEM 4th & 5 at HOU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−22.4
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−29.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:54MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:52MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:37HOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:58HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:34MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:51MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:56HOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:49HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:27HOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−7.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:1338% → 38%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
61.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
61.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
61.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
61.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+19
61.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 19 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
61.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
61.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
61.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 9 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
61.3%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
61.2%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-5
61.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Trevon Tate) to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
61.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+41
61.6%
Jake Elliott 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2761% → 61%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
61.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-4
60.5%
Logan Piper punt for 57 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 18 Roderick Proctor fumbled, recovered by Memph Roderick ProctorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3939% → 38%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
61.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-3
61.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
61.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
61.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 51 yds, downed at the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4961% → 61%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
61.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
61.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-3
60.6%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3439% → 39%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
60.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-5
60.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Tyler Uselton) to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
60.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jarvis Cooper for 9 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-5
60.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Roderick Proctor) to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
61.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-4
61.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5360% → 60%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
60.1%
Demarcus Ayers run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
60.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
60.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Ricky Hunter for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+11
59.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Javin Webb for 11 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
60.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-4
59.6%
Logan Piper punt for 49 yds , Mose Frazier returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 7 Mose Frazier fumbled, recovered by Memph Mose FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:2140% → 48%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
60.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 7Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
60.3%
Phil Mayhue run for 4 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+9
60.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
59.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
59.3%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
59.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
58.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
57.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 20 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
52.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 38 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5252% → 50%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
50.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Ernest Suttles for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
50.1%
Logan Piper punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0049% → 55%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
51.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
51.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
51.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
50.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
49.7%
Tevin Jones run for 5 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+19
49.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 19 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
49.2%
Tevin Jones run for no gain to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
48.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
49.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jae'lon OglesbySimilar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
45.5%
Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0546% → 44%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
45.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
44.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.9%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:1756% → 59%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
44.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
43.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
43.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 6 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
41.3%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
40.9%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+4
42.4%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
41.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2241% → 39%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
40.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Wynton McManis for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+10
39.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
39.4%
Logan Piper punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:3661% → 79%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
38.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 12 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
37.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+61
21.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 61 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0327% → 39%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
26.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
50
-2
28.3%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Wynton McManis for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
26.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
27.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
27.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 7 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
27.7%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
39.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 30 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
33.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4837% → 52%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
37.9%
Kyle Postma run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+26
36.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 26 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.4%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
38.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+16
37.7%
Javin Webb run for 16 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
38.8%
Javin Webb run for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
37.9%
Kyle Postma run for 6 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 4:1556% → 77%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
43.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Daniel Montiel) to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+2
44.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+17
44.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 2 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyus Bowser) to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
41.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
41.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
40.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Gabe Kuhn) to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+10
41.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
40.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
38.3%
Phil Mayhue pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
38.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 13 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
37.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
37.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
37.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
22.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 7 yds · 3:0028% → 23%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
27.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
27.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
28.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
27.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Kameron Eloph) to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-10
26.5%
Farrow, Kenneth rush for 10 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Denley, Mason) 10 yards to the HOUSTON30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 25
OWN 30
-10
25.0%
Postma, Kyle pass complete to Ayers, Demarcus for 16 yards to the HOUSTON46, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Wall, Carter) 10 yards to the HOUSTON20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 35
OWN 20
+12
24.4%
Kyle Postma run for 12 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 23
OWN 32
0
24.1%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 23
OWN 32
0
23.3%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+3
23.2%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:2280% → 96%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
19.6%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
18.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
17.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
16.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 7 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
15.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
15.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
15.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
14.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
14.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
13.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 7 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
3.8%
Tevin Jones run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:485% → 22%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
4.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Javin Webb for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
4.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+40
4.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 40 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
4.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
21.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3088% → 88%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
12.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-4
12.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 20 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, recovered by Houst Nick ThurmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:2721% → 16%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
21.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
20.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
19.1%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+12
18.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Chance Allen for 12 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
18.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
18.0%
Postma, Kyle pass complete to McCloskey, Tyler for 7 yards to the MEMPHIS0, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding off-setting, PENALTY HOUSTON Illegal Touching off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
17.7%
Kyle Postma run for 2 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.7%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23INT
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1991% → 93%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+35
8.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 35 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
7.4%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
7.0%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Elandon Roberts return for 7 yds to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1112% → 32%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
12.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 12 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
14.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
13.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+5
13.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
12.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Memph 3Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
11.9%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.6%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3180% → 82%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
19.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
18.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 28
-2
18.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 47 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:2525% → 84%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
24.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
23.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.5%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to John LedaySimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
25.7%
Kyle Postma run for 22 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.7%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
29.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
33.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+15
30.5%
Postma, Kyle pass incomplete to Ayers, Demarcus, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Morley, Chris) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.6%
Kyle Postma run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:5932% → 33%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
69.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 11 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
66.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Taylor Fallin) to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+24
69.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 24 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
58.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
58.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
54.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
67.2%
Jake Elliott 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:27
Kyle Postma run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+53.1
TD · Q4 5:49
Javin Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q4 12:56
Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com