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TLSA

Tulsa 38 at Cincinnati 49

CIN
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:33 · Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+34.3Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:57: Ramadi Warren run for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — TLSA win probability +14.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:14: Redford Jones 33 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +7.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:31: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +14.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:36: Tion Green run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +10.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:42: Hosey Williams run for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:33CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35TLSA 4th & 6 at CIN 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35TLSA 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:17TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:04CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:25TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:57TLSA 4th & 2 at CIN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−2.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:14TLSA 4th & 6 at CIN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:48TLSA 4th & 10 at CIN 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35TLSA 4th & 4 at CIN 11, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:39TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:33CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:17TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:03CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:57TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:31CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:36CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:42CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:08TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:01CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:15TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:2114% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
86.4%
BREWER, D. rush for 7 yards to the TLS47 (GILBERT, Tyrell;JENKINSON, B.), PENALTY TLS holding (WRIGHT, W.) 10 yards to the TLS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
86.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+42
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 42 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
86.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+15
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 15 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
86.4%
EVANS, D. rush for 5 yards to the CIN5 (EDWARDS, Zach), PENALTY TLS holding (WRIGHT, W.) 10 yards to the CIN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+13
86.4%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Jenkinson) to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
86.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Dane EvansSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
86.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
86.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Garrett Stafford) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
84.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 18 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
84.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
84.3%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
84.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Jeremy BradySimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
84.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
83.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
83.6%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+16
83.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
83.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
83.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
83.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0883% → 84%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
82.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
82.7%
Tion Green run for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
82.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 9 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+12
83.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
83.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 18 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
83.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
84.2%
Mike Boone run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
83.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 15 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
83.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-5
82.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Garrett Stafford) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
83.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+8
83.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
50
0
83.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1383% → 85%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
82.8%
WASHINGTON, S. pass incomplete to CHISUM, Alex, PENALTY CIN holding (KIEL, Gunner) 10 yards to the CIN11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+8
82.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+31
82.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
50
+15
83.5%
Hosey Williams run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+14
83.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Hosey Williams for 14 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
83.7%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
85.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:3316% → 15%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
84.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
84.4%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
84.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Silverberry Mouhon for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+6
84.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
84.4%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
84.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
84.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
84.5%
Mike Boone run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
50
0
85.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
50
+8
85.0%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to MORRISON, Max, PENALTY TLS pass interference (MUDOH, M.) 8 yards to the TLS42, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.2%
KIEL, Gunner pass complete to MORRISON, Max for 36 yards to the TLS6 (BRADY, J.), PENALTY CIN illegal touching (MORRISON, Max) 0 yards to the TLS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.2%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
84.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
85.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Ryan Leahy) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
84.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Derrick AlexanderSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+20
84.5%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Jeremy Brady return for 20 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:4116% → 22%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
83.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
83.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+65
78.1%
Ramadi Warren run for 65 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:0480% → 85%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
80.1%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
80.5%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
80.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Deyshawn Bond) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
80.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+16
80.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
80.9%
Mike Boone run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
80.9%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
85.3%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 1:1817% → 15%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 0
0
80.9%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to GARRETT, K., PENALTY CIN pass interference off-setting, PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
83.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
82.8%
Justin Hobbs run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
82.5%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
83.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chandler Miller) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-6
84.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Silverberry Mouhon for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
85.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
84.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Ryan Leahy) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+11
84.3%
Hosey Williams run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
85.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 4 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
85.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
50
0
85.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
50
-2
85.4%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
84.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
83.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
83.9%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
83.9%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
84.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:1385% → 86%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
84.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 20 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
85.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+53
85.5%
Andrew Gantz 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
83.2%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 21
-2
83.5%
Tion Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+5
82.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 5 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
83.4%
Tion Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+5
83.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+14
82.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
84.0%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
84.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
83.3%
Gunner Kiel punt for 47 yds, downed at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 3:3518% → 33%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
82.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+7
82.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
82.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
82.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
81.6%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
81.2%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to GARRETT, K. (PAYNE, L.), PENALTY CIN pass interference (PAYNE, L.) 15 yards to the CIN47, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
79.8%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
79.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+4
80.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+39
67.1%
Ramadi Warren run for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
71.9%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 20 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Craig Suits , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3037% → 41%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
63.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-8
63.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 2 yds to the Cincy 18 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (Keyarris Garrett) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 18
OPP 28
0
65.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Jj PinckneySimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 18
OPP 28
+12
67.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 12 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
59.2%
Redford Jones 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:3563% → 81%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
63.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
64.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
66.5%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
66.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+43
81.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.3%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
78.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 21 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
76.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
76.9%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 34 Ramadi Warren fumbled, forced by Alex Pace, recovered by Cincy Malik Clements , return for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:0283% → 91%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
82.7%
Tion Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+31
81.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 31 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.4%
Tion Green run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:4810% → 10%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
89.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
89.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 34 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
87.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-2
87.6%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
88.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
89.8%
Redford Jones 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:0691% → 98%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
91.2%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
91.1%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
90.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
91.3%
BOONE, Mike rush for 8 yards to the CIN42 (UWAEZUOKE, J.;SUITS, C.), PENALTY CIN holding (BOND, Deyshawn) 10 yards to the CIN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 20
OWN 24
-5
91.1%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to MOORE, Chris, dropped pass, PENALTY CIN ineligible downfield on pass (BOND, Deyshawn) 5 yards to the CIN19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+9
91.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 9 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+12
91.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 12 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+31
91.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 31 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
92.1%
Hosey Williams run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+20
98.1%
Hosey Williams run for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+22
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 22 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 15 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
96.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds Joshua Atkinson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
96.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+6
96.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 6 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
96.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
96.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 4
OPP 11
0
96.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Jarred EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
98.1%
Tion Green run for 10 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.1%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 31 Tion Green fumbled, forced by Trent Martin, recovered by Tulsa Kerwin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:333% → 8%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
96.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
96.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
96.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-1
96.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+14
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 14 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:0695% → 99%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
95.1%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
95.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
95.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.6%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
95.7%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-5
95.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Ryan Leahy) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+38
95.4%
Mike Boone run for 38 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 0:461% → 4%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
98.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
98.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
98.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Jarred EvansSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by Leviticus PayneSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
96.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 46 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, ( Yards) declined, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:57
Ramadi Warren run for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-14.7
TD · Q3 3:31
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q3 1:36
Tion Green run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com