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UCF

UCF 30 at Tulsa 45

TLSA
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:32 · Justin Holman pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+19.5Home team on offense+6.3Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:19: Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:37: Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:35: Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 13:24: Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:38: Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:58UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37TLSA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48UCF 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:29UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:21TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:32UCF 4th & 3 at TLSA 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:52TLSA 4th & 7 at UCF 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11UCF 4th & 3 at TLSA 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26UCF 4th & 5 at TLSA 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:34UCF 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:32UCF 4th & 8 at TLSA 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:18TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:49TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:19TLSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:37UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:35UCF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:24TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:38TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:31TLSA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:04UCF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4720% → 21%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
79.8%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
79.7%
C.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+10
79.6%
Nick Patti pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 10 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
79.4%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+4
79.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
79.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+4
79.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5779% → 80%
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+27
78.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 27 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
79.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
79.1%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
78.8%
Ramadi Warren run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+7
78.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+36
79.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2720% → 20%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
79.6%
UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+4
79.8%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
79.8%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
79.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
80.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, downed at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3380% → 80%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
79.9%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
80.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
80.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
80.1%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 1
50
0
79.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, downed at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5INT
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:3620% → 21%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+32
79.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 32 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
79.1%
Tristan Payton run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+10
79.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 10 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+14
78.9%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Darrell Williams return for 14 yds to the Tulsa 29 Darrell Williams fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4022% → 23%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.3%
Michael Willett run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
78.2%
Michael Willett run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+3
78.4%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
77.3%
Matthew Wright 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:2378% → 81%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
78.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
78.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
77.9%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
78.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 31 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
78.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
78.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
81.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3119% → 18%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
81.0%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-1
81.9%
Justin Holman sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
82.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5982% → 81%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
81.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
82.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
82.0%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
81.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Blake Tiralosi at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3718% → 17%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
81.0%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
81.4%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
82.8%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-5
82.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+15
83.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
82.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
82.6%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+3
82.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to C.J. Jones for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
82.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:5784% → 90%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
84.2%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+47
84.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 47 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
84.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.9%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24 C.J. Jones fumbled, forced by Trent Martin, recovered by Tulsa Matt LinscottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1390% → 95%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
89.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
89.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
89.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
89.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Chequan Burkett for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+4
90.1%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+4
90.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
94.5%
Redford Jones 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
13 plays · 33 yds · 2:427% → 4%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
93.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 15 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
93.3%
Michael Willett run for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
93.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 5 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.5%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
93.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
94.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+5
94.9%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-7
95.7%
Justin Holman sacked by Derrick Alexander and Jeremy Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
95.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+15
95.3%
Dane Evans run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
95.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 24 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
95.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
95.7%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Brendin Straubel return for 15 yds to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:276% → 14%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
94.4%
Nick Patti run for 16 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
94.3%
Justin Holman run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
94.4%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
94.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
94.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+16
94.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 16 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
94.4%
Taj McGowan run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+13
94.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.6%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.7%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4414% → 16%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
85.7%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
85.8%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+8
86.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 8 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.0%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
86.0%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
84.0%
Matthew Wright 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1986% → 88%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
86.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
86.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
87.6%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.9%
Ramadi Warren run for no gain to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
87.7%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Chequan Burkett return for 15 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:3116% → 32%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+35
83.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 35 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.6%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
83.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
67.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5976% → 90%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.2%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
75.1%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for no gain to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
76.3%
Ramadi Warren run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
76.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
78.1%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
78.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
77.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
78.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
79.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+9
77.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
79.2%
Ramadi Warren run for 25 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:4012% → 13%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
88.1%
Nick Patti run for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
88.9%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
88.0%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+38
87.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 38 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
85.3%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
87.2%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
88.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
86.6%
Matthew Wright 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0689% → 88%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.9%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
88.9%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
88.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
87.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds , Blake Tiralosi returns for 2 yds to the UCF 44 Blake Tiralosi fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Reymundo HigueraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:2291% → 97%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
91.3%
Ramadi Warren run for 33 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
91.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 9 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24INT TD
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:515% → 1%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+21
95.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 21 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
95.1%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-5
95.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+12
95.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 12 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.2%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-10
95.8%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-5
96.2%
Michael Willett run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+86
99.4%
Justin Holman pass intercepted for a TD Michael Mudoh return for 86 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 2:161% → 3%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 18 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 13 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 7 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
99.3%
Michael Willett run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+6
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 6 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.4%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
97.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:4799% → 99%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
98.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 13 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Ramadi Warren run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:35
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q4 13:24
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q3 9:37
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com