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NAVY

Navy 45 at Memphis 20

MEM
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2MEM 72.9%Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q1 0:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:29 · Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+18.9Home team on offense+1.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:07: Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:53: Anthony Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +17.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:43: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +22.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:28: Chris Swain run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:00: Calvin Cass Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 1:24MEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−2.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:29MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:59NAVY 4th & 8 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:43MEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−1.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:21MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:41NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:11MEM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:25MEM 4th & 11 at NAVY 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−11.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:19NAVY 4th & 9 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:04MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:38MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 39, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:39MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:07NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:53MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:43NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:28NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:00NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:20NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:5175% → 75%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
74.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+60
74.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 60 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
74.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
74.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:3825% → 29%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
74.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 21 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
74.8%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 13 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
74.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
74.7%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
74.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
74.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
74.5%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
74.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
74.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
74.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
74.2%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
74.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
74.0%
Dishan Romine run for 8 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
74.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.4%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 3:5473% → 73%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
72.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
72.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
72.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 17 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
73.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
73.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
73.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
73.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
73.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
73.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
73.3%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
72.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
73.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
73.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
73.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
72.9%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0127% → 28%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+12
72.5%
Demond Brown run for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
72.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
71.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 7 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
71.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
70.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
50
0
71.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 8
50
0
72.3%
Alex Barta punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0072% → 73%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+33
71.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 33 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
72.3%
Roderick Proctor run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
73.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
72.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 6 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
73.5%
Jamarius Henderson run for 7 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
73.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+9
73.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
73.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
73.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-6
74.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Navy 26 MEMPHIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+13
72.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 13 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-1
73.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2328% → 42%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
71.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 15 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
70.1%
Demond Brown run for 10 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.4%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
69.2%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+31
69.3%
Toneo Gulley run for 31 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
68.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.1%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2462% → 60%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
62.2%
Mose Frazier run for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-3
62.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+10
60.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 10 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
62.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
62.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
61.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
60.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 34 yds, downed at the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:3741% → 43%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
59.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+11
57.3%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+3
56.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
56.2%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
56.1%
Demond Brown run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
57.4%
Alex Barta punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
60.8%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Daniel Gonzales return for 10 yds to the Memph 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1145% → 52%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Thomas WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
54.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+44
48.1%
Austin Grebe 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0750% → 52%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
50.4%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
48.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+5
49.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brandon Colon for 5 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+3
47.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
48.1%
Alex Barta punt for 39 yds, downed at the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 5:3650% → 70%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
50.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+5
50.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
49.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 14 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
50.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
50.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 1
50
+4
50.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
52.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
51.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
51.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
52.8%
Anthony Miller run for 10 yds to the Navy 24 Anthony Miller fumbled, recovered by MemphSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
52.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 15 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
52.3%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
52.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 8 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.6%
Anthony Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
42.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5050% → 52%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
49.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 28 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
51.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
51.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
48.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
52.1%
Jake Elliott 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3250% → 72%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
48.6%
Demond Brown run for 8 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
45.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 36 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
43.7%
Quentin Ezell run for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+40
28.2%
Chris Swain run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:3331% → 31%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+17
31.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 17 yds Phil Mayhue fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1972% → 74%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
27.8%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
50
+3
27.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+2
26.3%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
27.7%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 9
50
+4
25.8%
Alex Barta punt for 50 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 4 yds to the Memph 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:0626% → 22%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
25.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
25.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
24.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
25.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
24.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
23.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
22.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:0077% → 95%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
22.9%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
21.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
20.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 8 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
19.4%
Dishan Romine run for 13 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
18.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
15.7%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
15.3%
Demond Brown run for 7 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
14.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 15 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:266% → 6%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
5.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 4 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
5.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
5.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 17 yds to the Memph 44 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, forced by Lorentez Barbour, recovered by Navy Brendon ClementsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:2596% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
4.1%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+14
4.0%
Chris Swain run for 14 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
3.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
2.9%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
2.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
2.3%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
1.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
1.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Demond Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 5 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
0.2%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+2
0.2%
Darius Lee run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+7
0.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+7
0.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:43
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-22.8
TD · Q3 6:53
Anthony Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q3 3:28
Chris Swain run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com