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CIN

Cincinnati 30 at Houston 33

HOU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:05: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +10.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:39: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declined — HOU win probability +10.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:56: Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Wilson return for 51 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +9.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:56: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 20 yds for a TD, (Shaq Washington pass to Gunner Kiel for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +10.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:07: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 29 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Chris Moore for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +28.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:54CIN 4th & 25 at HOU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:27CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:12HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:36CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:37HOU 4th & 12 at CIN 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47HOU 4th & 2 at CIN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:34HOU 4th & 1 at CIN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−2.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:59CIN 4th & 22 at CIN 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:08HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 42, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:51HOU 4th & 2 at CIN 12, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−1.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−11.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:10HOU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:24CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:58HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:27HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:05CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:39HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:56HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:56CIN Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:07CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.3%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0131% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
69.0%
Hosey Williams run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+45
68.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 45 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
68.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+4
68.6%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-15
68.5%
Kiel, Gunner pass complete to McKay, Mekale for 14 yards to the HOUSTON13, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (McKay, Mekale) 15 yards to the HOUSTON42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 25
OPP 42
0
68.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
68.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2469% → 68%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
68.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
68.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+8
68.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 8 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Logan Piper punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3432% → 32%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
68.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
68.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+12
68.5%
Sam Geraci punt blocked by Joeal Williams blocked by Joeal Williams Joeal Williams return for 12 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1769% → 71%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
69.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
68.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
68.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
68.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0830% → 29%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
70.3%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
70.2%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
70.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 54 yds, downed at the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1171% → 71%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
70.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
70.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+4
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
70.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
71.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
70.9%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2429% → 29%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.9%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
70.9%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
70.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
71.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Hosey Williams, broken up by Elandon RobertsSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
71.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5071% → 71%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
70.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
71.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
71.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+18
72.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
72.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
72.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Kameron Eloph) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
72.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
71.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
70.8%
Logan Piper punt for 27 yds, downed at the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:1629% → 37%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+65
71.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 65 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
63.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 25 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:2966% → 73%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
66.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 23 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
67.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 14 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
68.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
68.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+15
67.7%
Ward Jr., Greg pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CINCINNATI40 (Johnson, Lyndon), PENALTY CINCINNATI face mask (Johnson, Lyndon) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
68.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
73.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:0429% → 32%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
71.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 15 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
70.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
50
-2
69.4%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 48 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Cincy Gunner KielSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
70.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+14
71.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
69.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 28 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
68.5%
Tion Green run for 9 yds Tion Green fumbled, forced by Adrian McDonald, recovered by Houst Tyus BowserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3072% → 72%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
72.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
71.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:2328% → 42%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
72.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 50 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
68.6%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+9
68.6%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:0665% → 65%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
65.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
64.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
64.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
65.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
65.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
65.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 10 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
66.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
66.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
66.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-1
67.6%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
66.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 28 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Linden Stephens, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+1
64.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:3540% → 42%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
59.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 12 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
58.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
56.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Lee HightowerSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
56.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Gunner Kiel punt for 49 yds, downed at the Houst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
16 plays · 47 yds · 4:1167% → 78%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
67.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
67.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+15
66.6%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to McCloskey, Tyler (Edwards, Zach), PENALTY CINCINNATI roughing passer (Tongamoa, Sione) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
67.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
66.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+8
65.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
67.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
64.6%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for loss of 4 yards to the CINCINNATI5, PENALTY CINCINNATI face mask (Pinckney, Jj) 2 yards to the CINCINNATI3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leviticus Payne) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (1 Yards) to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2525% → 16%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
74.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 19 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+51
84.3%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Wilson return for 51 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 2:4615% → 12%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.5%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
85.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
85.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-9
87.8%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Trevon Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 22
OWN 23
-5
88.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 58 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4190% → 90%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
89.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+15
89.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alex Pace) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
89.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
89.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
90.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
90.0%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20SF
4 plays · -17 yds · 0:0911% → 9%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
89.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Parker Ehinger) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
89.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Tyus BowserSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 15
OWN 12
-12
91.2%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Trevon Stewart for a loss of 12 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0893% → 94%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
93.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+21
93.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 21 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
93.6%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Sione Tongamoa for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+17
93.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 17 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Zach Edwards return for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 1:218% → 19%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+35
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 35 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
91.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 17 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
91.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 23 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
90.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
90.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+20
80.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 20 yds for a TD, (Shaq Washington pass to Gunner Kiel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5787% → 90%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+23
87.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 23 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
88.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+22
88.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 22 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
89.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
89.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
88.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
89.8%
Ty Cummings 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:3911% → 12%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+23
88.7%
Mike Boone run for 23 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
88.2%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Trevon Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+15
90.4%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to McKay, Mekale (Wilson, Brandon), PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Wilson, Brandon) 15 yards to the HOUSTON39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
88.1%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Steven Taylor return for 5 yds to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:1892% → 94%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
91.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
92.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+37
92.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 37 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
93.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
93.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+21
92.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 21 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
93.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
93.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Demarcus Ayers) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
93.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Bryce Jenkinson return for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:047% → 38%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
92.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+21
93.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
92.1%
Hosey Williams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+9
92.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
91.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 18 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
91.3%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
62.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 29 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Chris Moore for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:3777% → 88%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
77.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
80.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+6
81.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
85.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
86.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
87.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 3
50
0
87.9%
Logan Piper punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:4112% → 14%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
88.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+27
85.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 27 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Khalil WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
86.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -11 yds · 1:2092% → 95%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
92.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-4
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 49
-4
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:07
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 29 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Chris Moore for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.8
TD · Q3 10:39
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declined
+10.8
TD · Q2 6:05
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com