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USF

South Florida 22 at East Carolina 17

ECU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:40 · Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−11.4Garbage-time factor−8.5Score differential−3.5Pregame prior+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:06: James Summers 7 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +11.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 5:08: James Summers 3 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +20.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:21: Emilio Nadelman 39 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +9.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:53: Davis Plowman 40 Yd Field Goal — ECU win probability +10.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:40: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +44.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:09USF 4th & 1 at USF 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:42ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:24USF 4th & 5 at USF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:58ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:21USF 4th & 16 at ECU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:16ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:24ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41USF 4th & 6 at ECU 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−7.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 3 at USF 35, up 5
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:10ECU 4th & 8 at USF 43, down 5
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:17USF 4th & 10 at USF 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:08USF 4th & 3 at USF 41, down 2
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:30ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 2 at ECU 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−2.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:21USF 4th & 4 at ECU 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−12.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:53ECU 4th & 10 at USF 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−4.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−15.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:53USF 4th & 2 at USF 41, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:27ECU 4th & 19 at USF 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−4.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:40ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:02USF 4th & 2 at USF 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:51ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:16USF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:06ECU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:08ECU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:40USF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
53.1%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
53.1%
James Summers pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
53.1%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
53.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds, downed at the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
53.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
53.2%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
53.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 12:42
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
53.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 18Similar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
53.5%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 34 James Summers fumbled, forced by Deadrin Senat, recovered by ECaro Chris HairstonSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
53.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+2
53.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
53.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
53.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
53.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene Bronson, broken up by DaShaun AmosSimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+8
53.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 51 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 8 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
53.8%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-1
54.3%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
54.0%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-2
53.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 51 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:5146% → 46%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
53.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 18 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
53.7%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
53.7%
Rodney Adams run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
53.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
53.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
53.1%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
52.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 17 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
52.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-7
52.7%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the ECaro 28 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Thor Jozwiak) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
53.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to A.J. LegreeSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
54.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7SF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-4
52.6%
James Summers sacked by Demetrius Hill for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETY EAST CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the ECaro 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:1747% → 55%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
52.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
52.9%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
53.3%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush quarterback scramble for no gain to the USF31 (WHITE, Johnathn), PENALTY ECU holding (HAWKINS, Josh) 10 yards to the USF41, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
52.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 2 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
52.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+17
52.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 17 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
51.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
51.2%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush quarterback keeper for loss of 1 yard to the ECU36, PENALTY ECU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the ECU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
50.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+8
50.6%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
50.0%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the ECaro 16 Darius Tice fumbled, forced by Jordan Williams, recovered by SFla Darius TiceSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
45.2%
Sean Price 16 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
46.0%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
45.9%
James Summers pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
45.3%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
45.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 52 yds, downed at the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:5354% → 57%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
45.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
45.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+16
45.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to A.J. Legree for 16 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
45.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+14
44.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 14 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
44.9%
Marlon Mack run for 16 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
43.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
43.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-4
42.3%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush up middle for 1 yard to the ECU0, clock 09:34, PENALTY USF false start 4 yards to the ECU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 0
OPP 5
+23
43.3%
Emilio Nadelman 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
42.0%
James Summers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
41.8%
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
41.5%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
41.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 73 yds, downed at the SFla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:0058% → 57%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+23
41.9%
Marlon Mack run for 23 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.1%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
40.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Domonique LennonSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
40.8%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SFla 38 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
41.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-7
41.6%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Terrell Stanley for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 18
OWN 15
-5
42.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 23
OWN 10
-3
42.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 7 D'Ernest Johnson fumbled, forced by Fred Presley, recovered by ECaro Yiannis BowdenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.5%
James Summers 7 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 3:2550% → 61%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
50.3%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
48.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
49.1%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+10
48.8%
Darius Tice run for 10 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
47.9%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
47.3%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+13
47.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 13 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
44.3%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
44.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
45.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darius TiceSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
39.4%
Emilio Nadelman 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
43.5%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
42.7%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
42.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
43.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
43.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 24 yds, downed at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.0%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
46.3%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+6
46.0%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 6 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
47.3%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+6
45.2%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
46.4%
James Summers pass complete to Davon Grayson for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
43.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
41.1%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
41.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+1
42.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
43.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2245% → 66%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
44.7%
James Summers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-1
45.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+6
44.8%
James Summers pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
46.2%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+22
46.3%
James Summers run for 22 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
47.8%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
47.8%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+14
45.9%
SUMMERS, James deep pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon, PENALTY USF pass interference (HOGGINS, Ronnie) 14 yards to the USF3, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.2%
James Summers 3 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
59.9%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
59.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
60.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 6 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
59.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
56.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-1
56.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
60.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds, downed at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
60.8%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
60.5%
James Summers run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+8
59.0%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 8 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
58.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 39 yds, downed at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1343% → 54%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
56.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 17 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
55.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
55.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
55.3%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+5
58.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
53.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
53.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
55.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to A.J. LegreeSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
46.2%
Emilio Nadelman 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:2849% → 65%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
49.2%
James Summers pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 8 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+39
53.5%
James Summers pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 39 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
56.5%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-3
56.5%
James Summers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-3
54.1%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
65.0%
Davis Plowman 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
60.8%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
62.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+10
64.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
61.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds, downed at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
64.9%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 11Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
64.6%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+56
62.7%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 56 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
71.3%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-8
71.0%
James Summers sacked by Nigel Harris and James Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 19
OPP 38
0
66.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 19
OPP 38
0
63.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:5436% → 81%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.7%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+16
63.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 16 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
19.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
28.7%
James Summers pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+16
31.1%
James Summers run for 16 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.9%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
33.2%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
33.1%
James Summers pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 7
OPP 46
-10
28.4%
SUMMERS, James rush quarterback keeper for 7 yards to the USF39 (LEE, Eric;SANCHEZ, Auggie), PENALTY ECU holding (BOYD, J.T.) 10 yards to the ECU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
25.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:0786% → 93%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
13.9%
MACK, Marlon rush up middle for 13 yards to the USF23 (BIGGER, Zeek), PENALTY USF illegal motion 5 yards to the USF5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+18
13.2%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Josh Hawkins) to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
12.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
12.2%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+1
7.0%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
7.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 40 yds, downed at the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
11.0%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
11.1%
James Summers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+6
10.8%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+5
10.6%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
12.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
11.5%
James Summers sacked by Kevin Bronson and Zack Bullock for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:40
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-44.5
TD · Q3 5:08
James Summers 3 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)
+20.3
TD · Q2 4:06
James Summers 7 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com