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TLSA

Tulsa 40 at SMU 31

SMU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.2SMU 35.7%Chad Hedlund 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 24 · Q3 3:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:42 · Chad Hedlund 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−6.1Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−2.5Pregame prior−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:12: Xavier Castille 39 Yd pass from Xavier Jones (Chad Hedlund Kick) — SMU win probability +14.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: D'Angelo Brewer 23 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +14.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:24: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +29.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:15TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:02TLSA 4th & 4 at SMU 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:05TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:50TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−5.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:33TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−3.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−15.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:42SMU 4th & 13 at TLSA 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:53TLSA 4th & 13 at SMU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−10.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:08TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−8.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−31.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:58SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:35TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:32SMU 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:55TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 42, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:43SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 39, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:43SMU 4th & 20 at TLSA 20, down 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:22SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:14TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:33TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12SMU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19TLSA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:24TLSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:53SMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:08TLSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:3845% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
45.1%
Xavier Jones run for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
45.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+12
45.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 12 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
45.1%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
45.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
45.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 9 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
45.1%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
45.1%
Prescott Line run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+5
45.1%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
21 plays · 85 yds · 7:1353% → 51%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
47.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
47.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
47.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Zach WoodSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
47.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
47.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
47.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
47.0%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
46.9%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
46.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 10 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
46.8%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
46.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
47.1%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
46.7%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
46.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
46.7%
Chad President run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-2
46.8%
Chad President run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+9
47.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+21
48.8%
Redford Jones 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:2850% → 56%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
50.0%
Matt Davis run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
50.4%
TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Jeremy Smith) to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
50.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
50.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+13
50.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
50.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
55.8%
Jeremiah Gaines 13 Yd pass from Matt Davis (Chad Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2145% → 43%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
55.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
55.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-1
55.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
56.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deion Sanders Jr. at the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
56.4%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+3
56.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
57.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Shelby Walker for 16 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
57.4%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
56.8%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-1
56.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1842% → 50%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+61
58.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 61 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
56.1%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.9%
Zack Langer 2 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
53.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Jones, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
52.9%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
51.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+15
51.0%
Josh Williams punt for 51 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 15 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
51.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
51.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
51.6%
Dane Evans sacked by RC Cox for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
52.6%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by David JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
53.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Deion Sanders Jr. at the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
54.9%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
55.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
55.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
53.7%
Josh Williams punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
54.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
54.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
55.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by David JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 3
OWN 17
-5
56.1%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
56.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 62 yds, downed at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1956% → 46%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
55.8%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+31
45.7%
Kerwin Thomas 31 Yd Interception Return (Redford Jones PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1448% → 62%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
47.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Xavier Castille for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
50.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+22
47.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 22 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
62.1%
Xavier Castille 39 Yd pass from Xavier Jones (Chad Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5342% → 58%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+31
56.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 31 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
53.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+8
52.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 8 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
42.2%
D'Angelo Brewer 23 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1451% → 47%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
50.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
49.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Keyarris GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
45.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by David JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
45.6%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+10
46.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
45.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chandler Miller) to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
45.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Andrew McCleneghen for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+2
45.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 18
OWN 16
0
46.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q3 14:50
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
47.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 50 yds , Deion Sanders Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 28 Deion Sanders Jr. fumbled, recovered by Tulsa C.J. GoodenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0959% → 72%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
41.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-5
41.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chandler Miller) to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
41.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
42.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
44.1%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
41.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
41.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
41.0%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.4%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:3031% → 36%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
31.3%
Prescott Line run for 9 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
32.9%
Prescott Line run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
33.6%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-5
32.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Derrick Luetjen for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+36
29.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 36 yds Courtland Sutton fumbled, forced by Michael Mudoh, recovered by SMU Shelby Walker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
35.2%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
35.2%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-8
33.5%
Matt Davis sacked by Kolton Shindelar and Matt Linscott for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
35.7%
Chad Hedlund 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:4967% → 75%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.8%
Ramadi Warren run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
31.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
30.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 17 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
29.2%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
29.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
29.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 6 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-9
29.0%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
30.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
24.8%
Redford Jones 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 0:5127% → 55%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Gaines, broken up by Frankie DavisSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
26.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+44
25.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 44 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
54.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4558% → 83%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.1%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
41.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
42.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 24 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
38.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 11 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
36.9%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
36.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
36.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 17 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
36.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
32.0%
Chad President run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
33.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.1%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
18.4%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
17.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
16.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby Walker SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
16.3%
Josh Williams punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3386% → 85%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
13.8%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
13.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
14.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by William JeanlysSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
15.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4918% → 13%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
17.6%
DAVIS,Matt rush for 6 yards to the TLS46 (WHITFIELD, M.), PENALTY SMU OH (BROWN, Evan) 10 yards to the SMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+8
16.0%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
16.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+15
15.1%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY TLS pass interference (MUDOH, M.) 15 yards to the TLS39, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
19.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
18.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
18.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+54
13.0%
Chad Hedlund 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:3789% → 95%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
11.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
11.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
11.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
10.7%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
8.3%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
8.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
5.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, downed at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25DOWNS
17 plays · 70 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
4.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
4.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+8
4.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 8 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
5.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 6 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+11
5.2%
Matt Davis run for 11 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
5.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
5.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
5.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+14
4.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 14 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
6.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 14 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
7.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 9 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+16
6.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 16 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
7.8%
Matt Davis sacked by Kolton Shindelar for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
6.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
0
5.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+29.4
TD · Q4 10:08
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q2 1:12
Xavier Castille 39 Yd pass from Xavier Jones (Chad Hedlund Kick)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com