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USF

South Florida 17 at Navy 29

NAVY
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:32 · Alex Barta punt for 50 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 7 yds to the SFla 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:30: Emilio Nadelman 25 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:17: Chris Swain run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:53: Marlon Mack run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +13.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:58: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NAVY win probability +26.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:08NAVY 4th & 8 at USF 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:30USF 4th & 7 at NAVY 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:56USF 4th & 6 at NAVY 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:56NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:23USF 4th & 4 at USF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:32NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:25NAVY 4th & 1 at USF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33NAVY 4th & 5 at USF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56USF 4th & 3 at USF 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:53NAVY 4th & 6 at USF 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:45USF 4th & 7 at NAVY 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−17.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:49NAVY 4th & 1 at USF 1, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−11.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:49USF 4th & 11 at USF 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:45USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:17NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:53USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:58NAVY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:49NAVY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 2FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:3777% → 75%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
76.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+22
76.6%
Chris Swain run for 22 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
76.6%
Demond Brown run for 7 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
76.6%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
76.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 17 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
76.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
76.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-3
76.6%
Demond Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
75.2%
Austin Grebe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 7:3825% → 31%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.0%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
75.0%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass complete to ADAMS, Rodney for 5 yards to the USF31 (MASON, Amos;GONZALES, D), PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the USF16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-5
75.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (Quinton Flowers) to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 24
OWN 11
0
75.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+25
75.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 25 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
75.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 12 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
74.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
74.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 3 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-3
74.7%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 35 Marlon Mack fumbled, recovered by SFla Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+25
74.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 25 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
74.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.5%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
74.7%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
74.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
68.8%
Emilio Nadelman 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1369% → 74%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
69.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
69.2%
Demond Brown run for 9 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
69.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
69.7%
Dishan Romine run for 12 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
70.4%
Quentin Ezell run for 16 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
71.0%
Demond Brown run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
69.7%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
74.0%
Chris Swain run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:2128% → 30%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
71.9%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-15
71.8%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 4 yards to the USF32, out-of-bounds (KELLY, Mike), PENALTY USF illegal block (JOHNSON, D'Erne) 15 yards to the USF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+43
72.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 43 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
70.6%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
70.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
70.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
70.3%
Emilio Nadelman 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
72.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
72.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
72.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
73.2%
Dishan Romine run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
73.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Zack BullockSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
72.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Demond Brown, broken up by Devin AbrahamSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
71.5%
Alex Barta punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
69.7%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
69.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
70.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
71.4%
SWAIN, Chris rush for 6 yards to the NAVY43 (SANCHEZ, Auggie;WHITEHURST, Tas), PENALTY NAVY illegal block (BINNS, E.K.) 15 yards to the NAVY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+6
70.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+4
70.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
69.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+7
69.1%
Alex Barta punt for 50 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 7 yds to the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3233% → 32%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
66.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene Bronson, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:3673% → 73%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
72.9%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+6
73.3%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
73.3%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
73.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
71.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
70.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
72.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+9
72.4%
Dishan Romine run for 9 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
72.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Demond BrownSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
72.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
70.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr.Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
72.9%
Austin Grebe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
70.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.6%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
71.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
71.7%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+25
70.5%
Alex Barta punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 36 , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 25 yds to the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:2032% → 46%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
67.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 34 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:0059% → 65%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
59.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
59.4%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+55
58.2%
Dishan Romine run for 55 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
64.9%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 22 Calvin Cass Jr. fumbled, forced by Deatrick Nichols, recovered by SFla Deatrick NicholsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.1%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
57.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Daiquan ThomassonSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-4
58.2%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass complete to JOHNSON, D'Erne for 8 yards to the USF32 (THOMAS, Micah), PENALTY USF ineligible downfield on pass 4 yards to the USF20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+9
58.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 9 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 7:3358% → 59%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
57.5%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Jamie Byrd for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
57.0%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+23
55.7%
Dishan Romine run for 23 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
60.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
61.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
61.7%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
61.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+8
61.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
63.5%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
63.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
63.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+1
63.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
61.4%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
59.1%
Austin Grebe 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:0844% → 48%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
56.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+40
55.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 40 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
50.6%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
50.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+1
49.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
52.5%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.9%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
48.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
49.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
52.0%
Emilio Nadelman 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:4754% → 86%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
54.3%
Dishan Romine run for 14 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
55.1%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+15
59.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 15 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
60.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
60.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+7
59.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
61.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 19 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
61.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
60.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:0987% → 98%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
87.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
87.0%
Tago Smith run for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+17
86.2%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
87.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
87.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
88.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
92.4%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
97.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Elkanah Dillon) to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
97.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+8
97.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:58
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26.3
TD · Q3 12:53
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-13.4
FG · Q1 2:30
Emilio Nadelman 25 yd FG GOOD
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com