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TULN

Tulane 13 at Memphis 41

MEM
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGSAFETYFGFGTDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:06 · Zachary Block punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+18.8Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Dontrell Hilliard run for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +3.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:38: Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +3.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 4:06: Jake Elliott 34 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:26: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +11.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:30: Anthony Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 0:32MEM 4th & 15 at TULN 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:42TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:48MEM 4th & 6 at TULN 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:13MEM 4th & 11 at TULN 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:26TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:29MEM 4th & 4 at TULN 39, up 2
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−1.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:19TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 40, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:17MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:16TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 25, down 2
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:06MEM 4th & 9 at TULN 17, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−7.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:06TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 33, down 5
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:27TULN 4th & 8 at MEM 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:06TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:06MEM 4th & 5 at TULN 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:47TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:15TULN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:38MEM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:26MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:30MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:16MEM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1TD
21 plays · 80 yds · 10:584% → 8%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
95.5%
Josh Rounds run for 8 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.4%
Rob Kelley run for 8 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
95.2%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Josh Rounds for 2 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
95.0%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 43Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-5
95.0%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Todd Jacquet) to the Tulan 38Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+9
94.8%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Larry Dace for 9 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+14
94.7%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 14 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
94.4%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
94.2%
Joseph, Jordy rush for 17 yards to the MEMPHIS19, PENALTY TULANE holding 10 yards to the MEMPHIS46, NO PLAY, PENALTY MEMPHIS personal foul 10 yards to the MEMPHIS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.9%
Sherman Badie run for no gain to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
93.6%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Kendall Ardoin for 11 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.2%
Rob Kelley run for 4 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
93.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+7
93.1%
Jordy Joseph run for 7 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
92.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
92.7%
Joseph, Jordy pass incomplete to Breaux, Devon, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference 11 yards to the MEMPHIS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
92.5%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:2892% → 91%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
91.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
91.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
91.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 29 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
91.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 7 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+10
91.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 10 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
91.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
91.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-8
91.3%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Tanzel Smart for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 18Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
90.5%
Jake Elliott 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4610% → 13%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.3%
Rob Kelley run for 2 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+35
89.9%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Teddy Veal for 35 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
86.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:2688% → 89%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 9 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
86.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
86.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 18 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
86.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
86.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+19
86.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 19 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
86.2%
Tevin Jones run for 10 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 1 yd to the Tulan 2Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5313% → 13%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.0%
Sherman Badie run for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
86.6%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Colton Hanson) to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
86.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Sherman BadieSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.0%
Zachary Block punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:2788% → 87%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
87.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+12
87.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 12 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-14
87.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 1 yd to the Tulan 41 MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Christopher Roberson) 15 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 24
OWN 44
+23
86.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 23 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
87.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
87.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 17 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
86.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 7Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
86.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
87.4%
Jake Elliott 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7SF
7 plays · -25 yds · 2:4714% → 15%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
85.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
84.5%
Rob Kelley run for 6 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-1
83.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
84.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 42 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter Picerelli for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4787% → 88%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
87.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 11 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
87.4%
Sam Craft run for 12 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
87.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
87.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
88.0%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3413% → 13%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
87.3%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Charles Jones for 9 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-2
86.7%
Jordy Joseph run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
87.1%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Trey ScottSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Zachary Block punt for 51 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for no gain to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1487% → 86%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
87.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
87.3%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Royce LaFrance for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+1
86.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:1687% → 86%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.2%
Mose Frazier run for 3 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
87.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
87.5%
Mose Frazier run for 5 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
87.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 1 yd to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
85.7%
Nick Jacobs punt for 30 yds, downed at the Tulan 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4515% → 17%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
84.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 22 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
84.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 32Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
83.8%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
84.2%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Charles Jones for 8 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
83.3%
Zachary Block punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4384% → 82%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+14
83.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 14 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
84.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
82.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 6 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5618% → 17%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
82.1%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Kendall ArdoinSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
82.1%
Josh Rounds run for 7 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+11
83.1%
Zachary Block punt for 47 yds , Mose Frazier returns for 11 yds to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0483% → 85%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-12
82.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 42 MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 22
OWN 27
+13
81.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+11
81.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
83.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the Tulan 38 MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Block (Alan Cross) to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 9
OPP 48
+17
83.6%
Sam Craft run for 17 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
83.8%
Anthony Miller run for 13 yds to the Tulan 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
83.5%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Tulan 17Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
83.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
82.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jae'lon OglesbySimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
84.6%
Jake Elliott 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4418% → 18%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.4%
Rob Kelley run for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
81.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
81.9%
Zachary Block punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:2484% → 95%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
83.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 25 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
94.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
94.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:3096% → 99%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
95.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 13 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
96.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+17
96.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 17 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
96.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 11 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.1%
Anthony Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-10
98.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taylor Fallin) to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
99.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ricky Hunter) to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
99.0%
Jordy Joseph run for 20 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
98.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Kendall ArdoinSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Rickey PrestonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4499% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
99.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+15
99.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
50
+21
99.3%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 21 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
99.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 11 yds to the Tulan 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
99.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 4Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Teddy Veal for 18 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Josh Rounds run for 3 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+18
99.9%
Zachary Block punt for 32 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 18 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Frank Wims for 15 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Frank Wims run for 4 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, downed at the Tulan 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
100.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
100.0%
Josh Rounds run for 5 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Rob Kelley run for 2 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
100.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the Tulan 16Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+19
100.0%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 19 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
Josh Rounds run for 7 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Rob Kelley run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Jordy Joseph pass incomplete to Devin GlennSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-4
100.0%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 42Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Rob Kelley for 6 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:26
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 14:15
Dontrell Hilliard run for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 10:38
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com