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UCF

UCF 7 at Cincinnati 52

CIN
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:33 · Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior+33.5Home team on offense+11.3Score differential+7.7Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:50: Chris Moore 16 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +0.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:50: Johnny Holton 59 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +1.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:04: DJ Dowdy 15 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:05: Shaq Washington 11 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:04: Tion Green 7 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 17, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:33UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 29, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:43UCF 4th & 4 at CIN 4, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:21UCF 4th & 7 at CIN 17, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:11UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 33, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:57CIN 4th & 2 at UCF 9, up 49
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:18CIN 4th & 5 at UCF 9, up 45
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:32UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 34, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:28CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 42, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:50CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:04CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:05CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:04CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:04CIN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:18CIN Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:23UCF Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
92.3%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
92.3%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
92.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-3
92.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 44 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:2592% → 92%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+58
91.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds to the CINCINNATI 31 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
92.0%
Chris Moore 16 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:198% → 9%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
91.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 23 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+7
91.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cal Bloom for 7 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
91.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 1 yd to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+16
91.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 16 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
91.7%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+7
91.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
91.2%
Matthew Wright 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4191% → 92%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.4%
Gunner Kiel run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
91.4%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to MORRISON, Max (KILLINGS, D.J.), PENALTY UCF pass interference (KILLINGS, D.J.) 8 yards to the CIN28, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
91.4%
Max Morrison pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
91.4%
Gunner Kiel run for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Gunner Kiel run for no gain to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
91.3%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
91.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 4 yds to the Cincy 43 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnny Holton) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+2
91.4%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+10
91.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 10 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+59
92.4%
Johnny Holton 59 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
92.0%
Justin Holman run for 7 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
91.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+8
92.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 8 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
91.9%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for 14 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5893% → 94%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
92.5%
Mike Boone run for 32 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
94.4%
DJ Dowdy 15 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:046% → 5%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.1%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
94.2%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-6
94.5%
Justin Holman sacked by Silverberry Mouhon and Chris Burton for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+4
94.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 54 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 38 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (Alex Thomas) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
94.8%
Tion Green run for 17 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.9%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
95.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 20 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
95.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shaquill Griffin) to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
95.6%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Shaquill Griffin return for 21 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
95.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
95.1%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
95.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Cortez BroughtonSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
95.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2596% → 98%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
95.6%
Hosey Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
95.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Deyshawn Bond) to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
95.5%
Hayden Moore run for 10 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
95.6%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-5
95.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+49
95.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 49 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
95.8%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+13
95.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 13 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
Shaq Washington 11 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarred Evans) to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 2
50
-10
98.4%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to SMITH, Tre'Quan, PENALTY UCF holding (HUDANICK, Tyler) 10 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 33 yds, downed at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
98.5%
Mike Boone run for 15 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Johnny Holton for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+23
98.4%
Tion Green run for 23 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
98.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, roughing passer (Luke Adams) to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.9%
Tion Green 7 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:141% → 1%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.1%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
99.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 25 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.1%
C.J. Jones run for 12 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.0%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+20
99.0%
C.J. Jones run for 20 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.0%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
98.9%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to C.J. Jones, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.3%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 4 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+78
99.4%
Johnny Holton 78 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:361% → 0%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.4%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+22
99.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 22 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.3%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
99.3%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
99.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 8 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+7
99.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.3%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
99.6%
Matthew Wright 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:03100% → 100%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.6%
Hosey Williams run for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.6%
Hosey Williams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
99.6%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+6
99.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.6%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to COLE, Nate, PENALTY UCF pass interference (KILLINGS, D.J.) 15 yards to the UCF41, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.6%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
99.6%
Hosey Williams run for 8 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
99.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 3 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.6%
Chad Banschbach run for 20 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.6%
Chad Banschbach run for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Shaq Washington 7 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.8%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+47
99.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Max Morrison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+20
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 20 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-1
99.8%
Chad Banschbach run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+41
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 41 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 4 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
99.9%
Andrew Gantz 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+51
99.9%
C.J. Jones run for 51 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.9%
Michael Willett run for 9 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
Michael Willett run for 6 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.9%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
C.J. Jones 1 Yd Run (Donald Delahaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-10
99.9%
BANSCHBACH, C. rush for 10 yards to the UCF48 (BURKETT, C.;SPENCER, D.), PENALTY CIN holding (NIEHAUS, David) 10 yards to the CIN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+38
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 38 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+6
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 6 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 9 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Tion Green run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 5
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
100.0%
Michael Willett run for 8 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+3
100.0%
Michael Willett run for 3 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Michael Willett run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Michael Willett run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 33 , Max Morrison returns for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
100.0%
Luke Wright pass complete to Chad Banschbach for 16 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Luke Wright run for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Chad Banschbach run for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:05
Shaq Washington 11 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+2.6
TD · Q1 2:04
DJ Dowdy 15 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+1.8
TD · Q1 4:50
Johnny Holton 59 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com