Try the model
HOU

Houston 59 at UCF 10

UCF
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:54 · Logan Piper punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior−31.4Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:27: Kenneth Farrow 26 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:50: Greg Ward Jr. 3 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +5.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Ty Cummings 34 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:10: Kenneth Farrow 30 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +5.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:49: Ryan Jackson 29 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick) — HOU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:25UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16HOU 4th & 21 at UCF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:38HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44UCF 4th & 9 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:54HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:38UCF 4th & 15 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38UCF 4th & 6 at HOU 37, down 21
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 17, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:16HOU 4th & 5 at UCF 42, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:16UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 11, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:33UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:27HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:50HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:10HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:49HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:10HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:57HOU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:41HOU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:0312% → 12%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+44
11.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 44 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+85
11.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 9 yds, Cam Stewart fumbled, recovered by Houst Brandon Wilson, returned for 85 yds for a TD. (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0612% → 12%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.9%
C.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
12.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
12.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
12.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 45 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 4 yds to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:0388% → 87%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
12.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
12.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
12.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
12.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
12.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
50
+8
12.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+9
12.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 9 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
12.5%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for 20 yards to the UCF13, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the UCF43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+3
12.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 17
OPP 40
-4
12.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Luke Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 21
OPP 44
0
13.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 21
OPP 44
+38
13.3%
Logan Piper punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Blake Tiralosi at the UCF 12 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:3513% → 16%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+23
13.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 23 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
13.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tristan Payton for 17 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
13.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
14.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 8 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
14.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
14.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+46
16.0%
Tristan Payton 46 Yd TD pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:2384% → 82%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
15.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
16.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+3
16.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-1
17.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Linell Bonner) to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
17.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
17.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
17.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
18.1%
Logan Piper punt for 55 yds , Blake Tiralosi returns for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5718% → 19%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
18.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
18.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
18.2%
Justin Holman run for 9 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
18.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
19.1%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
19.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 33
-9
18.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5581% → 80%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
19.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
19.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+6
19.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 15 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Denley) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
20.1%
Logan Piper punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Blake Tiralosi at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:4821% → 21%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
21.4%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete to Payton, Tristan, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Jackson III, William) 15 yards to the HOUSTON30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
22.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
21.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
20.8%
Matthew Wright 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4380% → 78%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
19.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
19.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-2
21.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by T.J. Mutcherson for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
22.0%
Logan Piper punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FG
15 plays · 40 yds · 6:0922% → 27%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
22.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
22.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
23.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
24.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
25.2%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
25.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
26.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
25.5%
Justin Holman pass intercepted by Lee Hightower at the HOUSTON26, Hightower return 19 yards to the HOUSTON31, PENALTY HOUSTON roughing passer off-setting, PENALTY UCF Pass Interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
25.9%
Justin Holman run for 9 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
27.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 10 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
27.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-6
28.7%
Justin Holman sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-4
27.7%
Justin Holman sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
27.4%
Matthew Wright 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:0571% → 80%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
28.6%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
28.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+20
27.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 20 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.6%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+35
27.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 20 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
26.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
26.8%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for 16 yards to the UCF0, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Freeman, Colton) 10 yards to the UCF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+26
19.6%
Kenneth Farrow 26 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2323% → 22%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
22.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
23.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
22.2%
Justin Holman pass intercepted William Jackson III return for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:3779% → 87%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
21.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+7
20.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
20.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 13 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
18.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 37 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.9%
Greg Ward Jr. 3 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3515% → 15%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
14.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
15.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+49
15.1%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Khalil Williams return for 49 yds to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+34
9.3%
Ty Cummings 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:3488% → 94%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
11.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 20 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
11.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 29 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
5.6%
Kenneth Farrow 30 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:198% → 8%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
7.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+30
7.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (William Jackson III) to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
8.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
8.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
8.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
7.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
7.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4195% → 98%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Donald Gage for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+28
4.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 28 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
4.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
4.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
4.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
4.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
3.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
3.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
2.0%
Ryan Jackson 29 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
3.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
2.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
2.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
2.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 58 yds, downed at the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:5398% → 99%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
1.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
1.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
1.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
1.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+67
0.8%
Demarcus Ayers 67 Yd TD pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
0.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Aaron Cochran for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
0.7%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:0399% → 100%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+13
0.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 13 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
0.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
0.5%
Kenneth Farrow 24 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+3
0.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 61 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 3 yds to the Houst 20 HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:2999% → 100%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
0.6%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 2 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+13
0.5%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 13 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.5%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
0.5%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 6 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
0.4%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 1 yd to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
0.4%
Donald Gage run for 4 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+9
0.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.3%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
0.3%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Hayden DanielsSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
0.3%
Logan Piper punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
0.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
0.2%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+3
0.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Javin Webb at the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Donald Gage for 1 yd to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
0.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Donald Gage for 8 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.2%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+38
0.2%
Kyle Postma run for 38 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
0.1%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 10 Kyle Postma fumbled, recovered by Houst Kyle Postma Kyle Postma run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
0.1%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 4 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Linell Bonner 6 Yd TD pass from Kyle Postma (Ty Cummings Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
0.1%
Michael Willett run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Michael Willett run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Michael Willett run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Javin Webb at the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Kyle Postma run for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:27
Kenneth Farrow 26 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
-7.2
TD · Q2 0:50
Greg Ward Jr. 3 Yd TD Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
-5.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Ty Cummings 34 yd FG GOOD
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com