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SMU

SMU 14 at South Florida 38

USF
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Xavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Chad Hedlund Kick) — SMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:49: Darius Tice 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +2.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:54: Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +6.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:54: D'Ernest Johnson 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:55: Quinton Flowers 5 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:52USF 4th & 11 at SMU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05USF 4th & 10 at USF 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:31SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:49USF 4th & 2 at SMU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:16SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53USF 4th & 5 at USF 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:54USF 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−8.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:56SMU 4th & 9 at USF 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:04USF 4th & 6 at SMU 45, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:59SMU 4th & 28 at SMU 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:40USF 4th & 11 at SMU 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:19USF 4th & 5 at SMU 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:49USF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:54USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:54USF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:55USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:39SMU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:19USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4221% → 21%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.7%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-9
78.6%
Matt Davis sacked by James Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 21 Matt Davis fumbled, forced by Jamie Byrd, recovered by SFla James Hamilton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0879% → 78%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
78.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
78.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
78.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+40
78.4%
Emilio Nadelman 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0522% → 22%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
78.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
78.2%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
78.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 8 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
78.0%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
77.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
78.0%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
78.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2078% → 77%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
77.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
77.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Thor Jozwiak) to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 12
-1
77.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+6
77.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
77.4%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Darius Joseph at the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4622% → 22%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
77.7%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+4
77.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+1
77.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
77.8%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
78.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0677% → 78%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.4%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarvis Pruitt) to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+8
77.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
77.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
77.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4023% → 29%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
77.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
77.0%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
76.8%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+11
76.4%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.7%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
75.7%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
75.4%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+34
75.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 34 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.4%
Xavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Chad Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4173% → 77%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
72.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 67 yds to the SMU 8 Quinton Flowers fumbled, forced by William Jeanlys, recovered by SFla Marlon Pope for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.5%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Darius Tice 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3924% → 23%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
75.8%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
75.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+3
76.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+20
76.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 54 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 20 yds to the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3077% → 76%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
76.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
76.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
75.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
76.6%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+9
75.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+1
75.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0326% → 24%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
74.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Jamie Byrd for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+5
75.1%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
75.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+17
76.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 42 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 17 yds to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0677% → 83%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
76.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to A.J. Legree for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
77.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 20 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
77.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Jordan Reed for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
77.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+10
76.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 10 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.1%
Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4219% → 18%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
81.4%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-15
80.6%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Kris Weeks) to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+9
82.2%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
82.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
81.5%
Matt Davis run for 28 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
80.1%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kris Weeks) to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
81.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
81.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
82.0%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Demetrius Hill return for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:4783% → 82%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
82.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
82.8%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
83.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-3
82.8%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Zach Wood for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
82.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3717% → 16%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
82.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
83.7%
Jackson Koonce punt for 47 yds, downed at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
83.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5982% → 90%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.3%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
82.8%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Jordan ReedSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.9%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
83.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
83.7%
Darius Tice run for 27 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
84.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
84.5%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
83.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 8 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
D'Ernest Johnson 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:2910% → 9%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-6
90.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+29
91.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 29 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+14
89.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 14 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
89.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
89.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
90.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
90.7%
Chad Hedlund 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1193% → 94%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
93.1%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-5
93.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+9
93.2%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+38
93.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 38 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-24
94.2%
Evan Wilson run for a loss of 24 yards to the SFla 46 Evan Wilson fumbled, recovered by SFla Quinton FlowersSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 29
OWN 46
0
93.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:026% → 6%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
93.7%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
93.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+1
93.9%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:186% → 6%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
93.7%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
94.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2795% → 96%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-4
94.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+21
94.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 21 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
95.6%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Andrew McCleneghen for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+10
95.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
96.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:504% → 4%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
95.6%
Xavier Jones run for 15 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
95.4%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-16
95.9%
Matt Davis sacked by Kevin Bronson and Mike Love for a loss of 16 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 28
OWN 17
0
96.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 28
OWN 17
+45
96.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 33 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 45 yds to the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Quinton Flowers 5 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.1%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
99.0%
Emilio Nadelman 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin LawlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:371% → 3%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
99.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
99.0%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+37
96.6%
Courtland Sutton 37 Yd pass from Darrel Colbert Jr. (Chad Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0698% → 100%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
97.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
97.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Quinton Flowers 18 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Darius Durall for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+15
99.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamie Byrd) to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Derek Longoria for 6 yds Derek Longoria fumbled, forced by Jamie Byrd, recovered by SFlaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.5%
Jordan Reed run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
50
+1
99.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31END OF GAME
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:001% → 1%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 11 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Derek Longoria for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Darius Durall for 7 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Xavier Castille for 9 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
99.5%
Darius Durall run for 2 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Ryheem Malone for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Darius DurallSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+28
99.6%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 28 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
99.4%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass complete to Darius Durall for 4 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.5%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
D'Ernest Johnson 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+6.6
TD · Q2 4:54
Quinton Flowers 8 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+6.5
TD · Q1 0:00
Xavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Chad Hedlund Kick)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com