Try the model
MEM

Memphis 66 at Tulsa 42

TLSA
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:50 · Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−13.8Pregame prior−13.9Score differential−7.1Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:53: Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:04: Doroland Dorceus 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +7.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:15: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:30: Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 80 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:34: Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +10.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:39MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:00TLSA 4th & 21 at MEM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:11TLSA 4th & 14 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:38TLSA 4th & 16 at MEM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29TLSA 4th & 2 at MEM 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:10TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:53MEM 4th & 3 at TLSA 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:50TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:42MEM 4th & 5 at TLSA 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:13TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:44MEM 4th & 7 at TLSA 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:22TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:06MEM 4th & 12 at TLSA 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:39MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:39MEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:50MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:55MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:35MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:39MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:53MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:00TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:04MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 11:15TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 9:30TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 5:34MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 12:39MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 7:06TLSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 1:39MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:1676% → 76%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
23.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 14:39
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
23.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:3024% → 25%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
24.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
24.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
24.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.4%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
24.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+12
24.8%
Ramadi Warren run for 12 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
24.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Chandler Miller) to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
24.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-6
25.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 21
OPP 49
0
25.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
25.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 1:5575% → 76%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
25.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+10
25.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 10 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
25.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+13
25.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 13 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
24.4%
Tevin Jones 58 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:2425% → 25%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.9%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
25.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
24.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 24 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
25.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
25.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-7
25.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 14
50
0
24.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3575% → 74%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
25.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 9
-6
25.1%
Mose Frazier run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 20
OWN 3
+7
25.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+27
25.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 27 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
28.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0972% → 73%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
27.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 7 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
27.5%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 42 Jamarius Henderson fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5229% → 28%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
29.3%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
29.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-7
29.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Leonard Pegues for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 48 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 16
OPP 48
+1
28.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 1 yd to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:1571% → 75%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
28.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+2
28.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
29.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
28.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
28.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
24.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:4926% → 33%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.1%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
26.5%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
26.1%
Chad President run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
26.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 33 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
27.6%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+5
27.1%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete to Hobbs, Justin (Morley, Chris), PENALTY MEMPHIS offside (Dillon, Jackson) 5 yards to the MEMPHIS21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
27.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
27.9%
Chad President run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
27.4%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
28.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:1069% → 75%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
30.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 22 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
29.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
29.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
29.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 9 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+20
29.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 20 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
29.6%
Tevin Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
24.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5127% → 28%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
26.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 15 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.8%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
28.3%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
28.3%
Chad President run for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
27.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:4673% → 82%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
26.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
27.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 4 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
25.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
25.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 13 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
25.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
25.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+10
25.4%
Lynch, Paxton pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the 50 yardline (Smith, Jeremy), PENALTY TULSA holding (Williams, Darrell) 10 yards to the TULSA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
24.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+1
23.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
24.0%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
18.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2020% → 20%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
20.0%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
19.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
20.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
20.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:5781% → 81%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
19.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 26 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
18.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
17.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
18.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose Frazier, broken up by Darrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
18.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2019% → 19%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
18.9%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Chris Morley return for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:2782% → 91%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
17.7%
Lynch, Paxton pass incomplete, PENALTY TULSA face mask 15 yards to the TULSA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
17.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
17.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
17.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
16.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+5
16.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+5
17.3%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick Luetjen) to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
15.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (1 Yards) to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18END OF HALF
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:5012% → 17%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.8%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
12.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
12.6%
Dane Evans sacked by Cortez Crosby for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+21
11.2%
Justin Hobbs run for 6 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
12.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+46
17.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 46 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0518% → 17%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.7%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
17.2%
Dane Evans sacked by Shareef White for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
17.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:2685% → 92%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
15.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+45
15.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 45 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.9%
Doroland Dorceus 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4511% → 19%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
10.9%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
10.7%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
10.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
11.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
18.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:2885% → 86%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
15.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
50
0
14.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
50
+7
14.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 7 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
13.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
14.0%
Nick Jacobs punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
26.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 80 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4174% → 89%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
25.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-2
24.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+7
26.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 7 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
24.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+30
23.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 30 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
22.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
21.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
21.6%
Roderick Proctor run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1714% → 14%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Chandler Miller) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
13.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
13.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
13.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1688% → 92%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
11.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 12 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
10.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Micah Simmons) to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
11.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 10 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
10.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
10.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
10.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
9.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+25
9.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
9.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
9.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
9.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Doroland Dorceus, broken up by Petera WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
7.8%
Jake Elliott 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:089% → 8%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
10.0%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
10.0%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
9.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
8.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+1
8.0%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:3694% → 98%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
5.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for 26 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (McKinley Whitfield) to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
5.5%
Jamarius Henderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
5.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 1 yd to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:492% → 2%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
2.3%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the TULSA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
2.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
2.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
2.4%
Dane Evans run for 11 yds to the Memph 34 Dane Evans fumbled, recovered by MemphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0998% → 99%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
1.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
1.5%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+16
1.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 16 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
1.3%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+3
1.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-1
1.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
1.2%
Nick Jacobs punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 0:542% → 6%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
1.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
1.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
1.4%
Rowdy Simon run for 11 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
1.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 44 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.9%
Rowdy Simon run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 32PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:2196% → 97%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
4.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the Memph 34 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
3.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
3.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
2.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (B.J. Ross) to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:353% → 3%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
2.8%
Dane Evans sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 23 TULSA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dane Evans) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+11
2.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+5
2.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds Keyarris Garrett fumbled, recovered by Memph Reggis Ball , return for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 34TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:5198% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
2.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+10
2.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
2.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
0.4%
Jamarius Henderson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 35END OF GAME
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.7%
Rowdy Simon run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
0.7%
Rowdy Simon run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
0.7%
Rowdy Simon run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
0.6%
Rowdy Simon run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
0.6%
Rowdy Simon run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:30
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 80 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q3 5:34
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 11:15
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com