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TLSA

Tulsa 17 at East Carolina 30

ECU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:17 · Worth Gregory punt for 50 yds, downed at the Tulsa 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+15.2Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:54: Davis Plowman 24 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:50: James Summers pass complete to Chris Hairston for 12 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +9.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:13: Davis Plowman 23 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +7.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:13: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 47 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 2 at ECU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47ECU 4th & 26 at TLSA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:19TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:37ECU 4th & 5 at TLSA 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:54TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:17ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 5 at ECU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:54ECU 4th & 6 at TLSA 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:23TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:50TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:13ECU 4th & 2 at TLSA 6, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:16TLSA 4th & 5 at ECU 34, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.6
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:45ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:49TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 11, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:52ECU 4th & 15 at TLSA 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:16TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:16TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 41, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:16ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 49, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:13ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 24, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:12TLSA 4th & 4 at ECU 4, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.6%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−3.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:27ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:51TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 39, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:39ECU 4th & 10 at TLSA 39, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.2
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:43TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 10, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:46ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:50ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:13TLSA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:24ECU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:30TLSA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1INT TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:1431% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
69.3%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+8
69.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.3%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 46 Dane Evans fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Dane EvansSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+18
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 18 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
69.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
69.3%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+8
69.3%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+100
69.4%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD Josh Hawkins return for 100 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
70.0%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-1
70.0%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+4
70.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
70.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
70.5%
Chris Hairston run for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+28
70.9%
Chris Hairston run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-16
71.0%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 26
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 26
OPP 48
0
70.4%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 26
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
70.7%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
70.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
70.8%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
71.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
71.7%
Blake Kemp sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 40 Blake Kemp fumbled, recovered by ECaro Blake Kemp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+4
71.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+8
70.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
71.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+32
71.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 32 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
70.3%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
70.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+5
70.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
70.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
71.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
71.3%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
71.2%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Bryce Williams, broken up by Michael Mudoh EAST CAROLINA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+3
70.8%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
70.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 50 yds, downed at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5229% → 29%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
70.9%
James Flanders run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
70.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
50
+4
70.0%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-5
70.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+4
70.9%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
71.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, downed at the ECaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:1372% → 74%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
71.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 21 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
71.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 10 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
72.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 20 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
73.0%
Anthony Scott run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
73.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 5 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
73.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 7 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
73.1%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
73.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
72.7%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
73.7%
Davis Plowman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3126% → 26%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
73.8%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+58
74.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
73.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+10
72.9%
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 10 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+7
73.0%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
73.1%
James Summers pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
72.8%
James Summers run for 11 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
74.2%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
73.6%
James Summers pass intercepted Darrell Williams return for no gain to the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.4%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29 Zack Langer fumbled, forced by Demage Bailey, recovered by ECaro Jordan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3376% → 85%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
75.7%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
75.7%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+9
75.1%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
75.7%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
85.0%
James Summers pass complete to Chris Hairston for 12 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Yiannis BowdenSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
83.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 54 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:5285% → 94%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
84.6%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+12
84.6%
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+34
84.8%
Isaiah Jones pass complete to Davon Grayson for 34 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
85.4%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+18
85.3%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 18 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
85.4%
James Summers pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
85.4%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
85.0%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
93.5%
Davis Plowman 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:578% → 9%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
91.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 26 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
90.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
89.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by DaShawn BentonSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
90.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
90.2%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the ECaro 34 Timeout TULSA, clock 00:16Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
90.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:1594% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.7%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
93.6%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+8
93.4%
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 8 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.7%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
93.7%
James Summers sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+19
93.4%
James Summers pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 19 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
94.0%
Shawn Furlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 16
OWN 40
-10
94.8%
SUMMERS, James rush quarterback keeper for 12 yards to the TLS48, out-of-bounds (ASIGEBU, Z.), PENALTY ECU holding (SMITH, Brandon) 10 yards to the ECU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 26
OWN 30
+6
94.7%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+10
94.6%
Chris Hairston run for 10 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
94.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
94.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 7 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
94.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-10
94.6%
EVANS, D. pass complete to LANGER, Z. for 10 yards to the TLS31 (HAWKINS, Josh), PENALTY TLS pass interference (LANGER, Z.) 10 yards to the TLS11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
94.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+7
94.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 51 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 7 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3196% → 97%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.9%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
95.9%
Shawn Furlow run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
95.8%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
96.0%
James Summers run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
96.0%
Shawn Furlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+3
96.0%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
95.9%
James Summers sacked by Petera Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
96.7%
Davis Plowman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.6%
Dane Evans sacked by Zeek Bigger for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Tavarreon Dickerson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
97.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
97.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Justin Brown and Zeek Bigger for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
97.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Rocco ScarfoneSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+11
97.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:2698% → 99%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
98.2%
James Summers pass complete to Davon Grayson for 32 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
98.8%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 12
50
-1
98.8%
Shawn Furlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
98.7%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce Williams, broken up by Michael MudohSimilar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:492% → 8%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
98.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
98.2%
James Flanders run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
98.1%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
98.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Montese Overton and Justin Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+2
98.3%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+11
98.3%
EVANS, D. deep pass incomplete to HOBBS, J. (AMOS, DaShaun), PENALTY ECU pass interference (AMOS, DaShaun) 11 yards to the ECU47, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
98.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+31
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 31 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.8%
James Flanders run for no gain to the ECaro 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
97.8%
Chad President run for 12 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
95.8%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
95.7%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
95.7%
SUMMERS, James pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Bryce, PENALTY TLS offside defense (ALEXANDER, D.) 4 yards to the ECU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
95.9%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
95.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 68 yds, downed at the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FG
11 plays · 88 yds · 2:555% → 6%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
95.4%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
95.2%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+5
95.3%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+29
95.2%
Chad President run for 29 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
94.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+39
94.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 37 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Montese Overton) to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
93.8%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the ECaro 6Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
93.8%
Chad President run for 2 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.3%
Chad President pass incomplete, broken up by Montese OvertonSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
94.5%
Redford Jones 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4596% → 97%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
96.3%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
96.4%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
96.6%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:294% → 3%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+19
96.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Fred Presley) to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
95.5%
EVANS, D. deep out pass complete to GARRETT, K. for 41 yards to the ECU16, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLS pass interference (GARRETT, K.) 15 yards to the TLS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+2
96.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 23
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+9
96.2%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
97.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0599% → 99%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
98.8%
James Summers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+2
98.9%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
98.9%
James Summers pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Johnell CelistanSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
98.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
97.5%
EVANS, D. rush quarterback scramble for 4 yards to the TLS24 (TILLMAN, Ray), PENALTY TLS personal foul (WRIGHT, W.) 10 yards to the TLS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
97.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
97.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
97.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 20
OWN 10
-6
97.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.1%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
James Summers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 0:541% → 3%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.5%
EVANS, D. sideline pass complete to FLOYD, C. for 7 yards to the ECU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ECU substitution infraction 5 yards to the ECU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+47
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 47 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
James Summers pass complete to Chris Hairston for 12 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
+9.3
FG · Q2 1:13
Davis Plowman 23 yd FG GOOD
+7
TD · Q4 12:13
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com