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USF

South Florida 28 at UConn 20

CONN
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+9.6CONN 14.0%Bryant Shirreffs pass complete toTyraiq Beals for 27 yds for a TD,(Bobby Puyol KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 20 · Q4 2:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:12 · Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense−19.9Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−13.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3One-score game−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:08: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 44 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +6.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:17: Bryant Shirreffs run for 36 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +20.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:59: D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Rodney Adams for 29 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +17.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:37: Quinton Flowers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +21.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +9.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 1 at USF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21USF 4th & 10 at USF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:00CONN 4th & 19 at USF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52USF 4th & 12 at USF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:23CONN 4th & 4 at USF 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 11 at CONN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:50CONN 4th & 2 at USF 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−8.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:43CONN 4th & 14 at USF 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41USF 4th & 1 at CONN 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−2.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 7 at USF 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:14CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:59CONN 4th & 5 at USF 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−11.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:27CONN 4th & 1 at USF 27, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%−3.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−13.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:28USF 4th & 6 at CONN 31, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:28CONN 4th & 2 at USF 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−3.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:23CONN 4th & 5 at USF 37, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:08USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:17CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:59USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:37USF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:23USF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:12CONN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.8 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 67 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
50.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 49 Bryant Shirreffs fumbled, forced by Nigel Harris, for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Nigel Harris) to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
50.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 34 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
50.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
50.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 7 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
50.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
50.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
50.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 5Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+3
50.8%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+6
51.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Brian Lemelle returns for 6 yds to the UConn 14 CONNECTICUT Penalty, IB (Matthew Walsh) to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
50.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
51.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 16 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
51.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 9 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
51.7%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
51.5%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
51.6%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
51.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Ron JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-8
51.3%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Devin Abraham for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
50.8%
Justin Wain punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
51.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 9
OWN 19
-3
51.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
52.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 68 yds, downed at the UConn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
51.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 19 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
51.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for 22 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
53.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 6 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
53.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
52.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
52.2%
Justin Wain punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:4949% → 48%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
51.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
51.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 4 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+33
51.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 33 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
50.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
49.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-6
50.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 46 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
52.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 20 yds, downed at the UConn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7INT
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
52.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 33 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted Kevin Bronson return for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:0650% → 57%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
50.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
50.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 8 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for no gain to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
50.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+44
43.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 44 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:1847% → 48%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
46.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 7 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+38
47.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 38 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
46.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
46.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
45.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
47.5%
Bobby Puyol 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.2%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
45.5%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
46.3%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Junior Joseph return for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0050% → 45%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
49.9%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-3
49.9%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-7
48.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Jamie Byrd for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
44.8%
Justin Wain punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0054% → 56%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.7%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
45.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
45.6%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
44.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 27 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 5 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-3
41.9%
Chris Barr run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
43.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
44.5%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13END OF HALF
11 plays · 64 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
44.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 11 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
46.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 6 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
47.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Jamie ByrdSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-5
46.4%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, delay of game (Bryant Shirreffs) to the UConn 42Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+20
44.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 20 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
47.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+20
46.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 20 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
49.8%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Demetrius Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 20 Bryant Shirreffs fumbled, recovered by UConn Bryant Shirreffs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
49.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+14
46.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 14 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
44.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-1
42.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-1
44.0%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
46.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 35 yds, downed at the UConn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
46.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 5 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
48.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 6 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
47.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
48.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
47.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
45.5%
Justin Wain punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
44.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+12
44.9%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
44.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+9
44.5%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Jamar Summers return for 9 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
64.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 36 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1841% → 61%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
59.0%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+8
57.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
56.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Pope for 30 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
39.3%
D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Rodney Adams for 29 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:0045% → 51%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
45.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
45.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+12
44.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 12 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
46.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 17 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
49.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
49.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
51.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
51.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+8
49.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
51.7%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
51.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
49.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
50.9%
Bobby Puyol 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2252% → 79%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
48.3%
Marlon Mack run for 59 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
42.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 15Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
21.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:1029% → 26%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
29.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+24
26.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 24 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
30.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
32.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 4 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
30.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+44
25.7%
Bobby Puyol 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5980% → 83%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
20.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+13
20.0%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
18.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+14
17.4%
Darius Tice run for 14 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
16.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the UConn 33 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Marlon Pope) to the UConn 43Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 18
OPP 43
-1
17.8%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 44Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+7
17.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+11
18.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-5
20.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
17.5%
Emilio Nadelman 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
20.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
22.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
23.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
24.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+8
22.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-7
22.4%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Nigel Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0191% → 96%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
9.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 3
50
+6
8.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
3.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 44 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:114% → 14%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
3.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+17
3.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 17 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
4.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 20 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
4.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
4.7%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Jamie Byrd for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
4.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+8
4.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 8 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+10
4.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 10 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
14.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:2395% → 97%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
5.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 12 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
4.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
3.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+14
3.1%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
3.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-3
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 11Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-3
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:37
Quinton Flowers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 9:17
Bryant Shirreffs run for 36 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+20.1
TD · Q3 7:59
D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Rodney Adams for 29 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com