Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 24 at BYU 38

BYU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2015 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:57 · Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 16 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+5.8Home team on offense−6.1Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:30: Algernon Brown 5 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +12.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:31: Nick Kurtz 19 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +20.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:28: Tion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +21.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:24: Algernon Brown 2 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +31.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:14: Nick Kurtz 53 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +30.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:48CIN 4th & 7 at BYU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54CIN 4th & 1 at BYU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52CIN 4th & 23 at BYU 41, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:29BYU 4th & 9 at CIN 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:38CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:31CIN 4th & 2 at BYU 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13BYU 4th & 5 at CIN 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57BYU 4th & 5 at CIN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:38BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:24BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:50CIN 4th & 26 at CIN 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−6.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:23CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−8.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:36CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:48CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 21, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:54CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:50CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:30BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:31BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:28CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:24BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:14BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:35BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:0736% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.2%
Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
64.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
64.1%
Tion Green run for 16 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
64.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 19 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
63.8%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
63.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 4 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
63.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
63.6%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
63.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Kai NacuaSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
63.7%
Andrew Gantz 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0764% → 63%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
63.7%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
63.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
63.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to David KesslerSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
63.2%
Jonny Linehan punt for 58 yds, downed at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 5:3436% → 41%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
63.6%
Hayden Moore sacked by Travis Tuiloma for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
63.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+15
63.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 15 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
63.4%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
63.1%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+11
63.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 11 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
62.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+46
63.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 46 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
61.8%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
61.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 7 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
61.6%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.4%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.7%
DJ Dowdy 1 Yd pass from Tion Green (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5859% → 59%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.2%
Algernon Brown run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
59.4%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Pearson, Colby, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Thomas, Alex) 5 yards to the BYU37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.2%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
59.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
58.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 46 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:5042% → 44%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
58.4%
Hayden Moore sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+14
58.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 14 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
57.5%
Mike Boone run for 21 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
56.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 25 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
55.6%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-3
55.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-6
55.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 36 Hayden Moore fumbled, forced by Bronson Kaufusi, recovered by Cincy Hayden Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 18
OPP 36
-5
56.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 23
OPP 41
+58
55.9%
Andrew Gantz 58 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Bronson Kaufusi, Michael Wadsworth return for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:1356% → 57%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+38
55.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 38 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
56.6%
Brown, Algernon rush for 6 yards to the CINCINNATI6, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the CINCINNATI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 20
OPP 22
0
56.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+11
56.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 11 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
54.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
56.8%
Trevor Samson 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:4245% → 45%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
55.4%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
54.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
54.1%
Moore, Hayden pass incomplete to Holton, Johnny, PENALTY BYU holding (Hannemann, Micah) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
53.3%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-7
52.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by Harvey Langi and Travis Tuiloma for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 13
OWN 44
-5
55.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Kirk Willis) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+71
55.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 61 yds for a touchback BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Grant Jones)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3155% → 54%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
54.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
54.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 5 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
53.6%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Kevin Brown return for no gain to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0649% → 60%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
51.5%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
51.2%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
51.4%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
50.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.4%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
49.1%
Moore, Hayden pass incomplete to Morrison, Max, PENALTY BYU holding (Hansen, Colby) 4 yards to the BYU3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
48.6%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.7%
Mike Boone 5 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:0541% → 55%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
41.3%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Mathews, Mitch, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Pinckney, Jj) 15 yards to the BYU39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
42.5%
Algernon Brown run for 15 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
42.9%
Riley Burt run for 7 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+16
43.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 16 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
43.5%
Francis Bernard run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+14
43.2%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Blackmon, Devon, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Tyson, Mike) 14 yards to the CINCINNATI5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.3%
Algernon Brown 5 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:4351% → 54%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
49.5%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
48.7%
Hosey Williams run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
50
+6
47.1%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
45.7%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
43.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
45.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:0749% → 49%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+41
48.8%
Riley Burt run for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
51.5%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
51.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
51.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
49.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, downed at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3352% → 53%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
47.9%
BYU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
47.1%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
46.7%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:1346% → 66%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.3%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
46.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
46.7%
Francis Bernard run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
48.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
47.3%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
47.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
48.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 7 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
47.8%
Trey Dye run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+9
45.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
47.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+16
44.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 16 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
65.5%
Nick Kurtz 19 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1943% → 41%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
57.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
54.3%
Tion Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
56.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
57.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+8
58.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 50 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 8 yds to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1860% → 58%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.2%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
60.0%
Mangum, Tanner pass complete to Kurtz, Nick for 13 yards to the BYU28, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass (Koroma, Tejan) 5 yards to the BYU10, NO PLAY, PENALTY BYU unsportsmanlike conduct (Kurtz, Nick) 5 yards to the BYU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 20
OWN 5
+15
59.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 15 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
58.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+39
57.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the CINCINNATI 36 BYU Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0246% → 69%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
54.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 20 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
52.8%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
52.3%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+14
52.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 14 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
50.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
50.5%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+19
52.8%
Hayden Moore run for 19 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.9%
Tion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5138% → 32%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.2%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
38.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
38.8%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-15
41.4%
Mangum, Tanner pass complete to Mathews, Mitch for 38 yards to the CINCINNATI16, PENALTY BYU illegal block 15 yards to the BYU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
37.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nate CarterSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+5
35.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Algernon Brown for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
32.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2767% → 69%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
32.8%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+7
30.5%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
28.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
29.1%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 30 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden Moore, Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-10
30.3%
Moore, Hayden rush for 10 yards to the CINCINNATI40, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Leahy, Ryan) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 21
OWN 20
-5
30.5%
Hayden Moore sacked by Sione Takitaki and Tomasi Laulile for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 26
OWN 15
0
31.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 46 yds, downed at the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:1934% → 66%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
33.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+40
33.1%
Francis Bernard run for 40 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
39.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 11 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
38.8%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
38.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
33.8%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Sampson, Bryan, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Tyson, Mike) 2 yards to the CINCINNATI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.6%
Algernon Brown 2 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5147% → 42%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
53.5%
Hayden Moore sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+3
54.7%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-6
55.8%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 20 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden MooreSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
57.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
88.4%
Nick Kurtz 53 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3118% → 13%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.5%
Hayden Moore sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
86.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+39
87.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 53 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 39 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5390% → 97%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
90.3%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
90.7%
Mangum, Tanner pass incomplete to Mathews, Mitch, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Payne, Leviticus) 4 yards to the CINCINNATI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
91.3%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
91.5%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.9%
Francis Bernard 11 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:325% → 5%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max Morrison, broken up by Kai NacuaSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
95.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Micah HannemannSimilar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:3897% → 98%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.2%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
97.6%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
97.6%
Algernon Brown run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.2%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+2
98.2%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+3
98.3%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:24
Algernon Brown 2 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)
+31.8
TD · Q4 8:14
Nick Kurtz 53 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Trevor Samson Kick)
+30.6
TD · Q3 3:28
Tion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com