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CONN

UConn 40 at UCF 13

UCF
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:43 · Justin Wain punt for 30 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 16 Chris Johnson fumbled, recovered by UConn Ellis Marder
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−40.9Score differential−18.6Garbage-time factor−10.3Pregame prior+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:22: Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — CONN win probability +12.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +14.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:50: Bobby Puyol 21 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +8.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:12: Ron Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +5.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:53: Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:06UCF 4th & 2 at CONN 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:55CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:23UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05CONN 4th & 1 at UCF 3, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−5.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:29UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10CONN 4th & 8 at UCF 36, up 6
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28UCF 4th & 8 at CONN 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:28CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:50CONN 4th & 4 at UCF 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:47UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 38, down 23
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:07UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:43CONN 4th & 6 at midfield, up 30
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18CONN 4th & 20 at CONN 10, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:22UCF 4th & 21 at CONN 28, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:17CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 30, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:20UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 45, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:42CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 17, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:02CONN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:22CONN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:49CONN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:12CONN Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:53CONN Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:38UCF Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 4:5463% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 8 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to C.J. Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 2 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+13
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 13 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 4 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 3 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+25
62.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 25 yds to the UConn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
62.5%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UConn 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
62.5%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 2Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
62.9%
Matthew Wright 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:5937% → 41%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
62.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+20
62.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 20 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
62.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
62.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+29
62.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Aaron McLean for 29 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
62.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 21 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
62.0%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 0
OWN 35
0
60.1%
Michael Tarbutt kickoff for 65 yds for a SAFETY , Hayden Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
59.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+10
60.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 10 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-4
59.5%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
60.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Graham Stewart, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
60.6%
Justin Wain punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
59.0%
C.J. Jones run for 15 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
59.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to C.J. Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
58.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 84 yds · 5:0242% → 45%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
58.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 11 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
58.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 23 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
57.4%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the UConn 42Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+4
57.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+19
57.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 19 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
57.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
55.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 10 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
55.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
55.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec Bloom, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
54.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 9 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
55.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
56.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
55.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
55.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+9
55.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 44 yds , Brian Lemelle returns for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5246% → 49%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
53.7%
JOHNSON, Ron pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel (GRIFFIN, Shqll), PENALTY UCONN illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-6
54.3%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Seyvon Lowry and Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 21
OPP 49
-10
51.3%
SHIRREFFS, Byr. pass complete to THOMAS, Noel for 34 yards to the UCF15 (GRIFFIN, Shqll;HAMPTON, Q.), PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 31
OWN 41
+5
52.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for 5 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+18
52.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 18 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+31
51.5%
Justin Wain punt for 36 yds for a touchback CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5355% → 53%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.8%
C.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
55.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 16 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
57.0%
C.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
57.2%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
56.0%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
56.3%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+31
52.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds UCF Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UConn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
46.9%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Chequan Burkett for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+10
49.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 10 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
46.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
50
-5
45.2%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 45 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
47.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for 4 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
46.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Graham Stewart, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
47.9%
Justin Wain punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
51.1%
C.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-7
52.4%
HOLMAN, Justin rush for 7 yards to the UCF32 (STEWART, Graham), PENALTY UCF holding 7 yards to the UCF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
51.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+19
50.1%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Jhavon Williams return for 19 yds to the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5656% → 69%
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
43.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
39.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
39.6%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Obi Melifonwu return for 16 yds to the UCF 39 UCF Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:1768% → 82%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
32.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 18 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
18.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
27.7%
HOLMAN, Justin pass complete to JONES, C.J. for 32 yards to the UCONN30, out-of-bounds (WALSH, Matt), PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the UCF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+15
26.4%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to JONES, C.J., PENALTY UCONN personal foul 15 yards to the UCF43, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
28.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to C.J. Jones for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
50
-15
29.3%
HOLMAN, Justin pass complete to FRANKS, Jordan for 24 yards to the UCONN26, out-of-bounds (WALSH, Matt), PENALTY UCF personal foul 15 yards to the UCF35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 18
OWN 35
-1
26.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0179% → 87%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
20.6%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+11
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 7 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
20.6%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 9 CONNECTICUT Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
21.6%
Ron Johnson run for 5 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
12.7%
Bobby Puyol 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
18.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
18.9%
Michael Willett run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
19.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
19.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds , Nick Vitale returns for 2 yds to the UConn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:1489% → 94%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
11.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 11 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+58
11.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 58 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
5.6%
Ron Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
8.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
8.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Franks for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
8.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
8.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
8.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nick Vitale at the UConn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
5.7%
Noel Thomas run for 8 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-1
5.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+4
5.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
5.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 17 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
5.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
5.4%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-1
5.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 6
50
0
6.3%
Justin Wain punt for 30 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 16 Chris Johnson fumbled, recovered by UConn Ellis MarderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:0697% → 99%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
3.3%
JOHNSON, Ron rush for 6 yards to the UCF10 (BOYKINS, Jerod), PENALTY UCONN illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+13
3.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 13 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
1.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22INT
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.8%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
0.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 6 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
0.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
0.8%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Michael Willett, broken up by Cameron StapletonSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+27
0.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 27 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 5 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
0.7%
Justin Holman pass intercepted, touchback. Jamar Summers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
0.9%
JOHNSON, Ron rush for 5 yards to the UCONN25 (GRIFFIN, Shqll), PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
0.9%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
0.9%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UConn 12Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 18
OWN 12
-2
1.0%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Josh Marriner for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 10Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Justin Wain punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Michael Willett for 12 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
0.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 13 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
0.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 9 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
0.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 2 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam Stewart, broken up by Javon HadleySimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-11
0.3%
Justin Holman sacked by Cole Ormsby for a loss of 11 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 21
OPP 28
0
0.3%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 21
OPP 28
+45
0.3%
Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
0.3%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 9 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Max DeLorenzo run for 3 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.3%
Max DeLorenzo run for 4 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
0.3%
Max DeLorenzo run for 3 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-5
0.3%
Max DeLorenzo run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Justin Wain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Blake Tiralosi at the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
0.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 12 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Michael WillettSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nick Vitale at the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
0.2%
Josh Marriner run for 1 yd to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
0.2%
Josh Marriner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 15Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+2
0.2%
Josh Marriner run for 2 yds to the UConn 17Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
0.4%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Blake Tiralosi at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
0.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cam Stewart for 23 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
0.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 11 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
0.1%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
0.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 5 yds to the UConn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
0.1%
Justin Holman run for 10 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:06100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
50
-3
0.1%
Max DeLorenzo run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+4
0.1%
Max DeLorenzo run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+7
0.1%
Max DeLorenzo run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:49
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
-14
TD · Q2 1:22
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-12.4
FG · Q3 11:50
Bobby Puyol 21 yd FG GOOD
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com