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ULM

UL Monroe 24 at Tulsa 34

TLSA
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:34 · Dalton Parks punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 225Pregame prior+1.5Home team on offense+22.4Garbage-time factor+14.8Score differential+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:26: Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:16: Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 26 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 3:16: DeVontae McNeal run for 43 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +24.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:41: Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +28.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:16: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:50TLSA 4th & 1 at ULM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:01TLSA 4th & 8 at ULM 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15ULM 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 3 at ULM 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:06TLSA 4th & 3 at ULM 3, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53TLSA 4th & 8 at ULM 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:56ULM 4th & 6 at TLSA 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:55ULM 4th & 6 at TLSA 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:04TLSA 4th & 8 at ULM 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:11TLSA 4th & 1 at ULM 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−6.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:44ULM 4th & 10 at TLSA 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−2.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:40ULM 4th & 6 at TLSA 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−15.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:40TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−2.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:10ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:34TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:25ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:31TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:15ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26TLSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:16ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:16ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:41TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:16TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
74.5%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
74.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+11
74.5%
Dane Evans run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
74.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
74.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 4 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
74.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
74.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
74.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 4:4974% → 74%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
74.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+12
74.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
74.2%
Dane Evans sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+6
74.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
50
+7
74.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
74.2%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
74.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
74.3%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+12
74.3%
Zack Langer run for 12 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
74.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
74.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-5
74.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chris Wallace) to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+1
73.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
73.7%
Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:3426% → 27%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
73.6%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
73.7%
DeVontae McNeal run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
73.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
73.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
73.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+11
73.5%
Smith, Garrett pass incomplete to Mapps, Jared, PENALTY TLS pass interference 11 yards to the ULM49, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
73.0%
Kaylon Watson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-1
72.9%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+14
72.9%
Garrett Smith run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
72.6%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
72.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Hayden CarmanSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
73.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Craig SuitsSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
72.7%
Craig Ford 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:4473% → 77%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
72.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-10
72.8%
EVANS, D. pass complete to ATKINSON, J. for 5 yards to the TLS34, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+5
72.6%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to GARRETT, K., PENALTY ULM offside defense 5 yards to the TLS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+9
72.6%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+17
72.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+17
73.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
74.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
74.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
74.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
74.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
73.6%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
74.0%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30 Kaylon Watson fumbled, forced by Trent Martin, recovered by Tulsa Derrick LuetjenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3177% → 76%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
76.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 6 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
76.3%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-8
75.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:3524% → 32%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.6%
DeVontae McNeal run for no gain to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
75.9%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-5
76.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+18
76.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 18 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
75.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 17 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
74.8%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 44 Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by LaMon DeVontae McNealSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+15
75.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
74.1%
Smith, Garrett pass incomplete to Green, Marcus (MUDOH, M.), PENALTY TLS personal foul 15 yards to the TLS14, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
74.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-3
74.3%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+16
75.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.3%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9MISSED FG
18 plays · 91 yds · 5:0370% → 72%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
70.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
70.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+17
71.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
72.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 13 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
72.8%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
72.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+18
71.8%
Ramadi Warren run for 18 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
73.0%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+13
71.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 13 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
73.1%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+4
73.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+10
72.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Cody RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
73.1%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 5 TULSA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
72.5%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
71.5%
Redford Jones 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
70.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+6
70.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+23
72.1%
Chris Qualls punt for 51 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 23 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4773% → 77%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
73.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
73.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+28
72.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 28 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
73.5%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
73.5%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
72.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Roland JenkinsSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
76.5%
Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 0:4224% → 23%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to DeVontae McNeal for 4 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
75.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-13
76.1%
Smith, Garrett pass incomplete, PENALTY ULM illegal block 13 yards to the ULM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 24
OWN 14
+6
76.3%
DeVontae McNeal run for 6 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+3
76.7%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
77.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:3376% → 86%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
75.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+30
75.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 30 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
77.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
86.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
82.8%
Garrett Smith run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
82.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:5816% → 20%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
83.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+9
82.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
82.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 10 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
81.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
81.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 10 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
81.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.4%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to DeVontae McNeal for 3 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
82.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
80.2%
Craig Ford 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 2:5482% → 83%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
81.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
81.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+28
80.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 28 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
82.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 4 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-5
83.1%
EVANS, D. pass complete to FLOYD, C. for 10 yards to the ULM25 (McCullum, M), PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ULM40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+20
82.7%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
83.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 1 yd to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
83.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 10 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
83.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
83.2%
EVANS, D. pass complete to GARRETT, K. for 6 yards to the ULM0, clock 08:55, PENALTY TLS pass interference 15 yards to the ULM21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
-7
82.6%
Dane Evans sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:3920% → 35%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
80.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
80.4%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+13
81.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 13 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
78.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
79.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Will BarrowSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
65.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 26 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:0671% → 71%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+46
70.6%
Ramadi Warren run for 31 yds to the TULSA 40 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
74.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 2 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
74.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
73.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by Colton MooreheadSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
71.1%
Redford Jones 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4832% → 58%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
68.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 4 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
67.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Craig SuitsSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+16
69.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
65.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+15
66.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
42.4%
DeVontae McNeal run for 43 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
48.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
48.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
49.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 15 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
52.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
53.3%
Ramadi Warren run for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
52.7%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-1
50.4%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 56%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
40.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Stoney Hawkins for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon WatsonSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
40.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Stoney Hawkins, broken up by Michael MudohSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
44.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
45.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Caleb TuckerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+4
45.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
43.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
42.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3462% → 62%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
38.1%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
37.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+37
37.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 37 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
36.0%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
36.0%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
37.7%
Craig Ford 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
43.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
46.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
43.1%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
44.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 10 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
47.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
45.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
47.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
44.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.6%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
35.9%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Matt Linscott return for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:2850% → 78%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
49.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
78.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:1778% → 93%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
78.2%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+16
78.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
78.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+10
77.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
76.6%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Matt LinscottSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
93.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 7 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+3
92.5%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.3%
DeVontae McNeal run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
92.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared Mapps, broken up by Derrick AlexanderSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
93.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:5593% → 94%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.9%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
93.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-5
93.6%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-6
93.3%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 16
OWN 16
0
93.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Watson, broken up by Jesse BrubakerSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
96.0%
Garrett Smith sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
96.2%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
96.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
96.2%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:41
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 15 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+28.5
TD · Q3 3:16
DeVontae McNeal run for 43 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-24.2
TD · Q3 6:16
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 26 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com