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ECU

East Carolina 38 at BYU 45

BYU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:35 · Jonny Linehan punt blocked by Trevian Hicks, recovered by ECU Yiannis Bowden for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+23.3Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:02: Algernon Brown run for 53 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:48: Chris Hairston run for 2 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +12.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:02: Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +27.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 4:01: Davis Plowman 34 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +13.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Algernon Brown run for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +28.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56ECU 4th & 19 at ECU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12BYU 4th & 2 at ECU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21ECU 4th & 3 at BYU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:38BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:15ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:28BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:18ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:46BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:53BYU 4th & 6 at ECU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:25BYU 4th & 5 at ECU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:40BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:18BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:57ECU 4th & 7 at BYU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:38BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:01ECU 4th & 5 at BYU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−7.0
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−18.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:21ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:36BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:20BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:05BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:14BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:06ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:02BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:48ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:02ECU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−1.0
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:19BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:5723% → 23%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.3%
Chris Hairston run for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
77.2%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
77.1%
Chris Hairston run for 9 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.0%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
76.9%
James Summers pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-9
76.9%
James Summers sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 19
OWN 42
+42
76.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds , Micah Hannemann returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2777% → 76%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-9
76.8%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+6
76.6%
Algernon Brown run for 6 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+45
76.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 45 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
76.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 6 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
76.8%
Francis Bernard run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
76.6%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+4
76.4%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the ECaro 31 Algernon Brown fumbled, recovered by ECaro Demetri McGillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:3924% → 28%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
76.0%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
75.6%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
75.6%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+13
75.5%
James Summers run for 13 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
75.1%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
75.0%
James Summers pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
75.1%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-2
74.8%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+34
72.4%
James Summers run for 34 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT TD
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:3273% → 69%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
73.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
72.6%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
72.2%
Francis Bernard run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
72.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Kurt HendersonSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
71.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
68.9%
Jonny Linehan punt blocked by Trevian Hicks, recovered by ECU Yiannis Bowden for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5169% → 71%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.2%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-16
68.3%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-16 Yards) to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+17
67.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 17 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
66.4%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
66.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Kurt Henderson for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
66.1%
Francis Bernard run for 5 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+16
66.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 16 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
66.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 8 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
70.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Algernon Brown for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0931% → 32%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
68.6%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
68.5%
Shawn Furlow run for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-15
67.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 20
OWN 19
0
68.4%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 20
OWN 19
0
68.4%
Worth Gregory punt blocked by Bronson Kaufusi, recovered by BYU Trey Dye at the ECU 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4369% → 74%
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.4%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.2%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5728% → 27%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
71.9%
James Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+7
71.9%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
72.1%
James Summers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
72.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:3873% → 80%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
72.6%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+4
72.0%
Tanner Mangum run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+7
71.9%
Jonny Linehan run for 7 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
73.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 7 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
74.0%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
73.6%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
73.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 12 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
74.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 17 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
79.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 13 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2722% → 21%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
78.3%
Shawn Furlow run for 3 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+15
78.3%
James Summers run for 15 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
77.6%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
77.6%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
78.0%
James Summers sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+4
79.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 57 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 2:4678% → 88%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
78.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 13 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
78.6%
Francis Bernard run for 7 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
79.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Algernon Brown for 9 yds Algernon Brown fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
78.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
79.9%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Demetri McGill for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+12
79.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 12 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
80.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 39 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 1:3614% → 23%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
85.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+24
85.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 24 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
84.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+14
85.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 14 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+9
83.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+15
83.7%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
83.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 11 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.4%
Blake Kemp run for 3 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.5%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4879% → 88%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
78.8%
Trey Dye run for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
78.8%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
79.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Trey Dye for 8 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+53
88.0%
Algernon Brown run for 53 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1113% → 15%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 18 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
85.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
85.5%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
85.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to DaQuan Barnes for 8 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
85.0%
Blake Kemp run for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 36 Blake Kemp fumbled, recovered by BYU Matt HadleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3788% → 88%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.4%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-11
89.2%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Yiannis Bowden for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+2
88.3%
Francis Bernard run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
88.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 55 yds, downed at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4612% → 13%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
87.9%
Chris Hairston run for 10 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.9%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
88.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 11 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
87.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
86.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 14 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
86.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 7 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-4
85.5%
Shawn Furlow run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
87.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds Davon Grayson fumbled, recovered by BYU Fred WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:5291% → 94%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
90.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 34 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
91.5%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
91.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
91.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+7
91.0%
Tanner Mangum run for 7 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
92.0%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
92.1%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
93.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
94.3%
Trevor Samson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:076% → 5%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
93.9%
Chris Hairston run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
50
0
93.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
50
-6
93.7%
Blake Kemp sacked by Bronson Kaufusi and Tomasi Laulile for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 16
OWN 44
0
94.6%
Blake Kemp pass intercepted Fred Warner return for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0095% → 95%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Beau Hoge run for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Beau Hoge run for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
95.4%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+10
95.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 51 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 10 yds to the EASTCRLINA 46 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 1:345% → 18%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
95.2%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+32
95.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 32 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
95.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 2
50
+36
94.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 36 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
94.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 12 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.4%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1788% → 86%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Francis Bernard run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
87.8%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
87.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
86.6%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+11
86.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 51 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 11 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:0814% → 11%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
85.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 16 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
84.1%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
86.1%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
86.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+6
88.7%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
89.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5989% → 89%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.2%
Francis Bernard run for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-8
89.4%
Beau Hoge sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
89.8%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+4
89.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 41 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 47, EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1510% → 37%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
89.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+35
91.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 35 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
89.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+16
90.3%
Blake Kemp run for 6 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4677% → 78%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.7%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
76.9%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
77.9%
Beau Hoge pass intercepted Yiannis Bowden return for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:5735% → 49%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
65.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 22 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
62.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
62.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
64.7%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
51.3%
Davis Plowman 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:2760% → 97%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
63.3%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
61.9%
Algernon Brown run for 12 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
65.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
66.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
65.8%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
63.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 5 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
63.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 15 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
68.2%
Francis Bernard run for 5 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
68.5%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
68.5%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
97.2%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:127% → 9%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
92.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+21
91.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 21 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+28.6
TD · Q4 6:02
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-27.3
FG · Q4 4:01
Davis Plowman 34 yd FG GOOD
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com