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SMU

SMU 28 at Houston 49

HOU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:16: Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:18: Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +9.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:02: Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +6.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:06: Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:09: Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:22HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:19SMU 4th & 5 at HOU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:23HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:25HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:15SMU 4th & 5 at HOU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:24SMU 4th & 22 at HOU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:15SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:25HOU 4th & 4 at SMU 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:59SMU 4th & 26 at SMU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:11SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:57HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:24SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:39HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:16SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:18HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:02HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:06HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:09HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:37HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:35SMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:2910% → 12%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
90.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 9 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+6
90.3%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.2%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+30
90.0%
Matt Davis run for 30 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
89.8%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+19
89.6%
Matt Davis run for 19 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for no gain to the Houst 8Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5488% → 89%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
88.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+38
88.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 38 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2311% → 15%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.7%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
88.5%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
88.3%
Prescott Line run for 17 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
87.9%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
87.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+33
87.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 33 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
87.4%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
87.1%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
85.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 9 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0286% → 85%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
85.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
85.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
85.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.9%
Logan Piper punt for 43 yds , Darius Joseph returns for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5915% → 16%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.0%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
84.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 7 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
83.7%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
83.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
83.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
83.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3284% → 87%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
83.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
83.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 33 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
83.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
83.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+20
83.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 20 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
83.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0215% → 17%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.0%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+27
84.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 27 yds Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by SMU Braylon Hyder for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
83.1%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
83.1%
Matt Davis run for 9 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
82.8%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Houst 34 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Brandon Wilson, recovered by Houst Tyus BowserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5285% → 83%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-7
83.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
82.8%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5617% → 29%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
82.2%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
82.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Elandon Roberts) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
81.1%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+12
80.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 12 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
80.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
78.7%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+10
78.6%
Davis, Matt pass incomplete to Malone, Ryheem, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Jackson III, William) 10 yards to the HOUSTON17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
77.7%
Xavier Jones run for 16 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.3%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4073% → 70%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
73.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
72.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-3
71.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 13
OWN 12
+66
70.1%
Logan Piper punt for 51 yds, downed at the HOUSTON 37 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (David Johnson) to the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3128% → 32%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
71.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Braylon Hyder) to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+4
71.8%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+7
71.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-16
68.5%
Matt Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 16 yards to the SMU 12 Matt Davis fumbled, forced by Steven Taylor, recovered by Houst Adrian McDonald , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2673% → 82%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
73.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
82.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FUMBLE
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:1623% → 26%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
77.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 12 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
76.6%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
75.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 5 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
75.4%
Davis, Matt rush for 6 yards to the HOUSTON45, PENALTY SMU holding (Brown, Evan) 10 yards to the SMU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+2
77.2%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+15
76.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 15 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
74.1%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Houst 43 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Lee Hightower, recovered by Houst Jerard CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:3481% → 88%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
80.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+28
80.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 28 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
81.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+13
81.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 13 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:0186% → 87%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
86.0%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+19
85.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 19 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
86.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 43 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Justin Lawler, recovered by SMU Andrew McCleneghenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1517% → 16%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
83.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
84.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5986% → 93%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
86.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+19
86.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 19 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
86.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+18
86.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 18 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
87.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-10
87.8%
Farrow, Kenneth rush for 3 yards to the SMU13, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Oliver, Marcus) 10 yards to the SMU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+16
87.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 16 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
92.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:369% → 8%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.5%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+38
91.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 38 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
90.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-6
90.5%
Matt Davis sacked by B.J. Singleton for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 17
OPP 43
-5
91.5%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Braylon Hyder) to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 22
OPP 48
0
91.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
91.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0493% → 98%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
93.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
93.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 28 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
94.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
94.0%
Javin Webb run for 13 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jesse Montgomery) to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.0%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zach Wood) to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.0%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 8:2999% → 100%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 11 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
98.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.0%
Javin Webb run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.0%
Javin Webb run for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
99.0%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.0%
Javin Webb run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
99.1%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
99.3%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.4%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
99.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the SMU 17 Ryan Jackson fumbled, forced by Darrion Richardson, recovered by Houst Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
99.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
99.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 4 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:480% → 1%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 11 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
99.9%
Matt Davis run for 18 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-14
99.9%
Matt Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 14 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 24
OPP 25
+25
99.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 25 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.7%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
99.7%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+1
99.7%
Kaliq Kokuma run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-6
99.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 26
OWN 4
0
99.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Gaines, broken up by Donald GageSimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 26
OWN 4
0
99.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:18
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 6:16
Matt Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 0:02
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com