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HOU

Houston 38 at Tulsa 24

TLSA
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:20 · Redford Jones 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior−17.5Home team on offense+1.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:31: Greg Ward Jr. run for 32 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +4.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +9.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:17: Kyle Bullard 21 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +6.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:52: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:36: Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +12.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:23TLSA 4th & 7 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 24, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:52HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:20TLSA 4th & 9 at HOU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:20HOU 4th & 1 at TLSA 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:31TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:04HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:31TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:53HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:49TLSA 4th & 5 at HOU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:04TLSA 4th & 7 at HOU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:55HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:09TLSA 4th & 9 at HOU 32, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:17HOU 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−7.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:57HOU 4th & 18 at TLSA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−7.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:57TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:36TLSA 4th & 12 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:43HOU 4th & 6 at TLSA 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:57HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:58TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:31HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:52TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:36HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:21HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:20TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 3:3729% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
28.7%
Keevan Lucas run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
28.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
28.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
28.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+13
28.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
28.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Steven Taylor and Nick Thurman for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+9
28.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 9 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
28.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
28.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
28.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Brandon WilsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
28.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+8
28.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
30.8%
Redford Jones 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2669% → 70%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
30.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
30.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
30.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 27 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
30.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 22 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
30.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 13 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
30.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
30.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
30.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
31.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
30.9%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
30.7%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
31.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
31.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
31.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
31.5%
Logan Piper punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:3633% → 36%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
32.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 26 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
32.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
32.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.5%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
34.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
34.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
34.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Logan Piper run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4737% → 36%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
36.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
36.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
36.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
35.5%
Redford Jones 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
35.6%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
35.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+16
36.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 16 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+44
34.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 44 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
34.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
34.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
34.5%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
35.0%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0137% → 36%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
36.6%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+12
36.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
36.7%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+7
36.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
36.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
36.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
36.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
36.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2962% → 68%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
38.1%
JACKSON, Ryan rush for loss of 1 yard to the HOU27 (LINSCOTT, M.), PENALTY TLS offside 5 yards to the HOU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 5
OWN 33
0
37.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+27
37.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 27 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
36.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 43 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled,Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+11
37.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 11 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
32.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 32 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.0%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
35.2%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
34.6%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
33.7%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
33.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-7
34.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Zik Asiegbu and Matt Linscott for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
35.5%
Logan Piper punt for 71 yds, downed at the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+18
34.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 18 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
34.5%
EVANS, D. pass complete to LUCAS, K. for 27 yards to the TLS47 (WILSON, Brandon), PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TLS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
34.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+10
34.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
33.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
31.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
31.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+9
31.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
31.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+2
33.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15MISSED FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 3:1635% → 35%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
34.7%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
35.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 7 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
35.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
34.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by B.J. SingletonSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+29
34.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 29 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
39.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
39.2%
Conner Floyd pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+2
38.7%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+9
36.4%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
39.9%
Keevan Lucas run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-8
39.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+7
34.3%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
35.2%
Redford Jones 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 0:4966% → 80%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
34.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Hayden Daniels for 33 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
30.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 25 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
29.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Hayden DanielsSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
29.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
20.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
24.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
23.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
23.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for no gain to the Houst 41 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
24.0%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
23.5%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+1
24.0%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
23.3%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
24.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 15 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
25.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 19 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
26.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Steven Taylor and Cameron Malveaux for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+2
26.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
25.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by D'Juan HinesSimilar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
23.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:0878% → 86%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
21.8%
Demarcus Ayers run for 6 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
20.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
21.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
21.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 9 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+34
21.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 34 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
20.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
20.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
14.5%
Kyle Bullard 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:1916% → 34%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
15.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
15.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+13
15.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 13 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
17.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 28 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
18.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Mandel Dixon, broken up by Elandon RobertsSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
18.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
17.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Adrian McDonaldSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+15
16.4%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to LUCAS, K., PENALTY HOU pass interference 15 yards to the HOU16, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
18.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
18.8%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to LUCAS, K., PENALTY HOU pass interference 14 yards to the HOU2, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.8%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.1%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
26.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
26.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+10
26.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds Steven Dunbar fumbled, forced by Petera Wilson, recovered by Tulsa Zik AsiegbuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
34.2%
EVANS, D. pass complete to BREWER, D. for 21 yards to the HOU14, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the HOU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
30.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
30.4%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Lee Hightower return for no gain to the Houst 40 TULSA Penalty, IF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:5075% → 75%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
25.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 14 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
24.7%
Javin Webb run for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
23.3%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
23.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 40 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
21.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
21.9%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-8
22.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Matt Linscott for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+40
25.0%
Kyle Bullard 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Mandel DixonSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
26.1%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
25.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
24.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2180% → 93%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
20.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+11
20.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
19.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
18.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
19.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.5%
Ramadi Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
12.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
12.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
12.2%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J., PENALTY HOU personal foul 15 yards to the HOU48, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
13.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-2
13.8%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-5
13.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Cameron Malveaux for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 12
50
0
11.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:4394% → 96%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
6.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
6.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+23
6.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 23 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
5.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 0
-1
5.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 48 TULSA Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+11
6.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
5.7%
WARD Jr., Greg pass incomplete to ALLEN, Chance, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS31, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
5.7%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
5.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
4.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
3.8%
Kyle Bullard 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
4.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Nick ThurmanSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
4.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+12
4.7%
Dane Evans run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
5.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
5.6%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Houst 41 Zack Langer fumbled, forced by Tyus Bowser, recovered by Houst Trevon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 2:1197% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
3.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
3.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+13
3.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
0.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 44 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:011% → 4%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
0.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 22 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
1.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 45 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.2%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 32Uncategorized
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0699% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
1.5%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 14
OWN 47
-3
1.5%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:52
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q4 11:36
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q2 0:15
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com