Try the model
UCF

UCF 31 at Tulane 45

TULN
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Yulman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.5TULN 73.9%Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 24 · Q2 0:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:05 · Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+11.0Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Pregame prior−3.4Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:32: Tanner Lee pass complete to Kendall Ardoin for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +5.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:20: Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +11.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:22: Sherman Badie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +15.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:50: Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:52: Tanner Lee pass complete to Rob Kelley for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +4.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 10UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 8 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:37TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 28, tied
    Close callWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:21TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:38UCF 4th & 21 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:54TULN 4th & 6 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05UCF 4th & 10 at TULN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−9.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15UCF 4th & 23 at TULN 32, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:09TULN 4th & 7 at UCF 35, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.6
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:46UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:46TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 45, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:40TULN 4th & 12 at UCF 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:54TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 24, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:33TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:57UCF 4th & 10 at TULN 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:27UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:20TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:22TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:50TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:52TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:49UCF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:33UCF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:57UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.2%
UCF Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulan 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+8
43.2%
Rob Kelley run for 8 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
43.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 3 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
43.2%
Josh Rounds run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
43.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
43.2%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
43.2%
Peter Picerelli punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
43.8%
Bo Schneider run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
43.7%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
43.7%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
43.8%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
43.8%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
43.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Darion Monroe at the Tulan 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.5%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-11
44.4%
Tanner Lee sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulan 15 Tanner Lee fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+13
44.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Rickey Preston for 13 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 8
OWN 28
-10
44.1%
Peter Picerelli run for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 18 Peter Picerelli fumbled, recovered by UCF Shaquem GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:4256% → 59%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
44.0%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Tulan 18Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
44.1%
Taj McGowan run for 10 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.0%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Tulan 8Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.3%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 5:4942% → 49%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
42.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
42.3%
Sherman Badie run for 5 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
42.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 4 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
42.5%
Sherman Badie run for no gain to the Tulan 33Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+24
42.2%
Marshall Wadleigh run for 24 yds to the TULANE 43 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
43.3%
Rob Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-15
43.3%
[GUN], KELLEY, Rob rush over right guard for 3 yards to the UCF33 (SPENCER, D.;ADAMS, Luke), PENALTY TLN personal foul (TAYLOR, Chris) 15 yards to the TLN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+9
42.6%
Rob Kelley run for 9 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+40
43.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 40 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.6%
Rob Kelley run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Kendall Ardoin for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:2654% → 53%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
45.9%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-5
46.0%
Bo Schneider sacked by Eldrick Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 20
OWN 5
+29
46.6%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 29 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
45.5%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+18
46.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Taj McGowan for 18 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
44.5%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-3
44.4%
C.J. Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
45.6%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
46.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Darion Monroe at the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
47.8%
THOMPSON, L. rush up middle for 37 yards to the UCF40 (BOYKINS, Jerod), PENALTY TLN holding (UZDAVINIS, A.) 11 yards to the TLN12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 21
OWN 12
-5
47.6%
TULANE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 7Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 26
OWN 7
+4
47.3%
Rob Kelley run for 4 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+1
47.5%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 12Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+4
46.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 4 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 17
OWN 16
+48
46.3%
Peter Picerelli punt for 33 yds UCF Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
45.8%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
46.0%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-12
46.8%
Bo Schneider sacked by Corey Redwine for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Darion Monroe at the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:4751% → 54%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
50.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
51.2%
Sherman Badie run for 15 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
51.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Trey Scott for 9 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+9
52.1%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 9 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
52.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
52.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy Veal for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (Jamiyus Pittman) to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
52.8%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
52.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.9%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
53.9%
Andrew DiRocco 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+62
52.9%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 62 yds Chris Johnson fumbled, forced by Parry Nickerson, recovered by Tulan Richard Allen , return for 36 yds to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
64.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
63.9%
Bo Schneider pass intercepted Roderic TEAMER return for 10 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4365% → 80%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
65.0%
Josh Rounds run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+15
64.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Larry Dace for 15 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
65.0%
Josh Rounds run for 12 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.0%
Sherman Badie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 2:1724% → 26%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.1%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
74.5%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 10 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
74.9%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 8 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
73.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
74.3%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Cal Bloom for 5 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
73.6%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 5 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-5
73.8%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
75.6%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 6 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+12
74.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 12 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
72.8%
[GUN], SCHNEIDER, Bo sacked for loss of 2 yards to the TLN28 (ARUNA, Ade), PENALTY TLN holding (MONROE, Darion) 9 yards to the TLN17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.8%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by TEAMER, RodericSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
72.8%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan Franks, broken up by Richard AllenSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
74.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
73.9%
Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
77.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 23 yds · 4:3027% → 19%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
73.4%
Bo Schneider pass complete to C.J. Jones for 7 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
72.0%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Cam Stewart for 2 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
72.3%
Bo Schneider pass complete to C.J. Jones for 4 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
72.6%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
71.1%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Cam Stewart for 5 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
71.1%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
71.7%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
72.8%
UCF Penalty, false start (Chavis Dickey) to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+15
74.4%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
71.1%
Cedric Thompson run for no gain to the Tulan 19Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-6
71.6%
Bo Schneider sacked by Royce LaFrance for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-7
73.9%
Bo Schneider sacked by Royce LaFrance for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 32Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 23
OPP 32
0
80.6%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Cam Stewart, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
82.1%
Rob Kelley run for 8 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
82.7%
Rob Kelley run for 3 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.7%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
82.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 2 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+13
82.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
82.8%
Rob Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
83.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Larry DaceSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
82.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Trey ScottSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
81.5%
Peter Picerelli punt for 18 yds, downed at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
82.9%
Bo Schneider sacked by Royce LaFrance for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 10 Bo Schneider fumbled, recovered by Tulan Corey Redwine , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:4487% → 95%
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
86.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
94.0%
Bo Schneider pass intercepted Rae Juan Marbley return for 31 yds to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4696% → 100%
Q3 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
95.5%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Rob Kelley for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.4%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Cedric Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Rickey Preston, broken up by Chequan BurkettSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 8 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-1
99.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 45Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Peter Picerelli punt for 52 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.6%
C.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
99.6%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete, broken up by Eldrick WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+5
99.6%
Bo Schneider pass intercepted Taris Shenall return for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Lance McDowdellSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Peter Picerelli punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.7%
Bo Schneider pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 15 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-6
99.7%
Bo Schneider sacked by Robert Kennedy for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to D'erren Wilson, broken up by Dedrick ShySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donnie Lewis at the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.7%
Josh Rounds run for 5 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
99.7%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Josh Rounds run for no gain to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Peter Picerelli punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 0:580% → 2%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
99.8%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 28 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.8%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Chris Johnson for 15 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 29TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2999% → 100%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.0%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 20Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+18
99.0%
Devin Powell pass complete to Andrew Hicks for 18 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+46
99.1%
Josh Rounds run for 46 yds to the UCF 16 Josh Rounds fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
99.1%
Rob Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
99.1%
Devin Powell pass incomplete to Josh RoundsSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Devin Powell pass complete to Rickey Preston for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:400% → 1%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
99.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Jordan Franks for 25 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to D'erren WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to D'erren Wilson, broken up by Dedrick ShySimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+13
99.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 13 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to C.J. Jones for 8 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
98.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 24 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Josh Rounds run for 6 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.4%
Josh Rounds run for 3 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Josh Rounds run for no gain to the Tulan 34Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.3%
TEAM punt , Tre Neal returns for 3 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:311% → 3%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.2%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 7 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+12
99.2%
[GUN], HARRIS, Tyler pass incomplete to WILSON, D'erren, PENALTY TLN pass interference (SHY, Dedrick) 12 yards to the TLN13, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
99.1%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Cam Stewart for 9 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 1
OPP 4
-9
99.1%
Tyler Harris sacked by Calvin Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 13Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to D'erren WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+13
97.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 33END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0698% → 98%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Josh Rounds run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.3%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
98.3%
Josh Rounds run for 8 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:22
Sherman Badie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+15
TD · Q2 4:20
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q3 5:50
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com