Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 49 at SMU 23

SMU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-9.8SMU 3.5%James Summers run for 8 yds for a TD,(Davis Plowman KICK)AWAY 42 - HOME 23 · Q4 12:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:20 · James Summers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense−41.3Score differential−21.0Pregame prior−1.9Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:12: Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +9.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:31: Chris Hairston run for 34 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +11.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:09: James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 47 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +14.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:34: Anthony Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +13.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:20: James Summers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +9.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12ECU made the numbers' call on 0 of 5
  1. Q1 10:23SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 29, down 6
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 40, up 6
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29ECU 4th & 9 at SMU 33, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:08SMU 4th & 10 at ECU 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−7.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:58SMU 4th & 21 at SMU 15, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−3.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33SMU 4th & 8 at ECU 45, up 2
    Close callPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 48, down 2
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:09SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:49ECU 4th & 6 at SMU 37, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−1.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:36SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:34SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:23ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 49, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 26 at SMU 15, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:20SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 22, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:38SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 43, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:38SMU 4th & 13 at ECU 38, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:32SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:23ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:11SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:12SMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:05ECU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:31ECU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:09ECU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:34ECU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:20ECU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:38ECU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2841% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
41.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0959% → 59%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.0%
Shawn Furlow run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
41.0%
Shawn Furlow run for 4 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
41.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 15 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
41.0%
KEMP, Blake pass complete to WILLIAMS, Bryce for 5 yards to the SMU49 (RHONE, Anthony), PENALTY SMU offside (LAWLER, Justin) 5 yards to the SMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 5
OPP 49
0
40.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
41.0%
Chris Hairston run for 7 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
41.0%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
41.0%
Chris Hairston run for 7 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-10
41.0%
HAIRSTON, Chris rush for 2 yards to the SMU33 (YENGA, Jonathan;GREEN, Deon), PENALTY ECU holding (McKINNEY, Q.) 10 yards to the SMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+31
41.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 16 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Yenga) to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
40.9%
Shawn Furlow run for 4 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
41.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 10 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
41.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
41.6%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
41.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 52 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 10 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
42.4%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
42.3%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
42.6%
Blake Kemp pass intercepted Kyran Mitchell return for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
45.8%
Xavier Jones pass complete to Xavier Castille for 40 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
44.9%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+3
45.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 3 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-2
45.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 68 yds , Braeden West returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:4746% → 47%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
45.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+1
45.8%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 7
0
45.7%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+15
45.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 15 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
45.9%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
46.2%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
47.1%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
47.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
46.7%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+2
46.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 2 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
47.2%
Blake Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+12
47.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
46.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
46.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+26
46.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
45.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
45.3%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Chris HairstonSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-1
45.9%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+8
47.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0650% → 61%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
50.9%
Matt Davis run for 21 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.3%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+18
51.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 18 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
60.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 19 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
56.9%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
56.6%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-1
56.7%
Blake Kemp pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:4862% → 67%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
62.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+1
62.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
62.4%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to WALKER, Shelby, PENALTY ECU pass interference (RICHARDSON, Trl) 15 yards to the ECU30, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
62.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 11 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
64.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
64.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
64.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
66.6%
Chad Hedlund 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0337% → 44%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.4%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
63.0%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.7%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
61.9%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+14
62.0%
James Summers run for 14 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
60.8%
Shawn Furlow run for 6 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
60.4%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
56.4%
James Summers run for 27 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
58.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
58.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-9
57.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Yiannis Bowden for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 21
OWN 15
+2
56.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5141% → 54%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
58.9%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
58.3%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
57.8%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
58.1%
James Summers pass complete to Quay Johnson for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+34
46.3%
Chris Hairston run for 34 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:5852% → 54%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
53.1%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
54.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
53.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Shelby Walker for 10 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
55.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
54.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Travon SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+2
53.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Braeden West for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
53.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:0447% → 44%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
53.1%
Chris Hairston run for 10 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
52.6%
Chris Hairston run for 10 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.8%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
51.4%
James Summers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
49.7%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
56.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 48 yds, downed at the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
54.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5148% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.2%
SMU Penalty, Defensive offside (A.J. Justice) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+19
50.6%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for 19 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
49.1%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+47
34.6%
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 47 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.3%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
39.0%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-3
40.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-11
38.4%
Matt Davis sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
36.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 16 yds , Quay Johnson returns for no gain to the SMU 41 Quay Johnson fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
33.7%
Shawn Furlow run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
32.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-2
33.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
35.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
36.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+16
37.4%
Braeden West run for 16 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
38.0%
Matt Davis sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 18
OWN 24
0
37.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+5
35.9%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to WALKER, Shelby, PENALTY ECU offside defense (OVERTON, Mntese) 5 yards to the SMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
35.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+15
35.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 54 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 15 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:4865% → 82%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
34.8%
Anthony Scott run for 29 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
32.7%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
31.3%
Shawn Furlow run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
31.3%
Quay Johnson run for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
32.6%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
31.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
31.3%
James Summers run for 10 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.3%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.0%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
22.9%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-13
22.1%
Matt Davis sacked by Yiannis Bowden for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+7
20.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds , Quay Johnson returns for 7 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
16.6%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
16.4%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 1
50
-1
16.6%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
18.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 39 yds, downed at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2919% → 18%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+19
19.0%
Matt Davis run for 19 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
19.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for no gain Xavier Castille fumbled, recovered by SMU Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-5
19.2%
Matt Davis sacked by Montese Overton for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-13
17.7%
Matt Davis sacked by Yiannis Bowden and Montese Overton for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 15
+46
17.7%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 14 , Quay Johnson returns for 46 yds to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0887% → 97%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
13.3%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
13.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
3.5%
James Summers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
5.8%
Matt Davis sacked by Montese Overton and Johnathon White for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
5.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
5.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
5.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds , Quay Johnson returns for no gain to the ECaro 22 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1897% → 100%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.3%
James Summers pass complete to Bryce Williams for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
3.3%
Shawn Furlow run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+10
3.4%
James Summers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
3.1%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
3.1%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+35
3.2%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 35 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
0.4%
James Summers pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 16 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29DOWNS
14 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.3%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to GAINES, J. for 5 yards to the SMU30 (WRIGHT, Darius), PENALTY SMU holding (WEEKS, Kris) 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+22
0.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 22 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 6 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Thomas, broken up by DaShaun AmosSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Castille, broken up by Rocco ScarfoneSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+9
0.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.3%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
0.3%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
0.4%
Matt Davis sacked by Terrell Stanley for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Gaines, broken up by Josh HawkinsSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
0.2%
Shawn Furlow run for 18 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+6
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
0.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:09
James Summers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 47 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 4:34
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q2 3:31
Chris Hairston run for 34 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com