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MEM

Memphis 24 at South Florida 17

USF
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2015 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:54 · Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior−16.2Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:58: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:11: Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +15.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:39: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 55 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +15.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:49: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 23 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +18.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: Emilio Nadelman on-side kick recovered by MEMPHIS at the SFla 47 — MEM win probability +8.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 12:47MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:15MEM 4th & 4 at USF 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:25USF 4th & 1 at MEM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56USF 4th & 6 at MEM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43USF 4th & 9 at MEM 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:06MEM 4th & 7 at USF 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:36USF 4th & 11 at USF 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54MEM 4th & 2 at USF 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57USF 4th & 2 at USF 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36MEM 4th & 6 at USF 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:58MEM 4th & 2 at USF 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−3.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:34USF 4th & 1 at USF 17, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:37MEM 4th & 13 at USF 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:34USF 4th & 1 at USF 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:27USF 4th & 15 at USF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:51MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:30USF 4th & 5 at USF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:36USF 4th & 1 at MEM 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:35MEM 4th & 10 at USF 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:44MEM 4th & 9 at USF 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:29USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:58MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:11MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:39MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:49USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:0377% → 76%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
22.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
22.8%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
23.0%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
23.2%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
23.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
23.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the SFla 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 5:1124% → 29%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
23.7%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+4
23.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 4 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
24.1%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.3%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
24.5%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
24.8%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
25.2%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
25.7%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Dion Witty) to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
25.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+26
26.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 26 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.3%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.7%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5571% → 69%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
28.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
28.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
29.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 28 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
29.1%
Anthony Miller run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+3
30.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
30.8%
Jake Elliott 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0932% → 36%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
31.7%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
32.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jared Gentry) to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
32.9%
Marlon Mack run for 29 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.8%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
34.1%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
34.2%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+7
34.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
35.8%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
36.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+5
36.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 5 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
36.3%
Emilio Nadelman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:4465% → 69%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+13
35.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 13 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
35.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
36.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+18
37.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 18 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
30.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0933% → 35%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
32.7%
Marlon Mack run for 17 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
34.0%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+11
34.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 11 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
35.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
35.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Memph 35 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Marlon Pope) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 20
50
+11
34.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
36.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest Johnson, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 38 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3165% → 62%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
35.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+18
35.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 18 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
35.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 19 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
34.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
34.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
35.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
34.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
36.1%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+5
36.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+3
36.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+43
38.2%
Nick Jacobs punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 4 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (2 Yards) to the SFla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2439% → 38%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
38.9%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
39.1%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
38.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 11
OWN 1
-6
38.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 50 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 0 MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Mose Frazier) to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3861% → 61%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jae'lon OglesbySimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
40.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
39.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
38.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 8 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
37.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
39.3%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5341% → 41%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
40.9%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+2
41.1%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+4
41.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+29
41.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 57 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 29 yds to the SFla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1759% → 56%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
40.7%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
40.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
41.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
43.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
43.6%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5260% → 58%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
39.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 6 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
39.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
40.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
41.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1645% → 43%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
44.6%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
45.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
43.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+8
43.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 43 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 8 yds to the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5359% → 60%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
41.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
41.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+16
42.0%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 16 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-14
40.6%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Tashon Whitehurst for a loss of 14 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 24
OPP 43
+11
44.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 13
OPP 32
0
44.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+49
40.5%
Jake Elliott 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5642% → 45%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.4%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
44.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
43.9%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
45.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
42.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 9 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
44.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:1659% → 79%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
41.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
40.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+13
41.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+33
40.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 33 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
36.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+3
36.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+8
37.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
35.8%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
36.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+18
38.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 18 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
36.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
36.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2926% → 23%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
26.2%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
30.0%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
27.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-5
25.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
24.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
22.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2579% → 77%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
21.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-6
20.9%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Eric Lee and Tashon Whitehurst for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+9
22.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
23.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1425% → 23%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
24.7%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
25.7%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
23.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
22.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 53 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for no gain to the Memph 14 Roderick Proctor fumbled, recovered by Memph Chauncey LanierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:4679% → 94%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
21.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Greg McKillionSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+31
21.8%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 31 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
6.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 55 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:489% → 8%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
8.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 17 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
9.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 5 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
10.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
8.6%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
7.8%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5595% → 95%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
5.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
4.8%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
4.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 5
OPP 40
-5
4.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
4.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 33 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 3:365% → 22%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
5.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 5 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-8
5.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominique Threatt) to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+5
4.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 5 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+20
3.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 20 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
3.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
4.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
3.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
3.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene Bronson, broken up by Reggis BallSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+2
3.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+15
2.7%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Price, Sean (Morley, Chris), PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Morley, Chris) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
21.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 23 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
4.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
4.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
4.6%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
5.2%
Nick Jacobs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:088% → 8%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
7.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 7 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 15
0
8.1%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Reggis Ball return for no gain to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:49
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 23 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q3 2:11
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q4 10:39
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 55 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com