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MIA

Miami 23 at Cincinnati 34

CIN
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2015 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.1CIN 45.8%Michael Badgley 47 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 14 · Q1 3:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:39 · Michael Badgley 47 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior−10.8Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:24: Mark Walton 6 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +4.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:17: Hayden Moore 1 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +10.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Andrew Gantz 26 Yd Field Goal — CIN win probability +4.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:59: Michael Badgley 26 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +7.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:54: Tyler Cogswell 7 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:40MIA 4th & 11 at CIN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39MIA 4th & 8 at CIN 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:22CIN 4th & 13 at MIA 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:24CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:27MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:26CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:28MIA 4th & 6 at CIN 34, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:16CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:33MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:06CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−3.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:32MIA 4th & 17 at CIN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:56CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:58MIA 4th & 6 at CIN 41, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−2.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−4.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:59MIA 4th & 5 at CIN 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−3.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−16.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:41MIA 4th & 5 at CIN 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−2.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:23CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:02CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24MIA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:26MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:17CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0863% → 62%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
37.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 23 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
37.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 14 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
37.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-15
37.3%
Yearby, Joseph rush for 8 yards to the CINCINNATI10, PENALTY MIAMIFL personal foul 15 yards to the CINCINNATI33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 20
OPP 33
-1
37.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+10
37.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
37.9%
Michael Badgley 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:0938% → 40%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
38.0%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+20
38.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 20 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
38.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 11 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
39.7%
Hosey Williams 29 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0761% → 60%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish Dobard, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+69
40.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 53 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 69 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
42.5%
Mekale McKay 11 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:1858% → 54%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
41.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
42.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
42.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+9
42.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 9 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
43.0%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
43.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
43.4%
Brad Kaaya run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
43.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Standish Dobard) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+7
44.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
45.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn Scott, broken up by Cortez BroughtonSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
45.8%
Michael Badgley 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2646% → 48%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
46.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.5%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
47.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
47.9%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Rayshawn Jenkins return for 37 yds to the Cincy 32 Rayshawn Jenkins fumbled, forced by Alex Chisum, recovered by MiaFl, at MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3654% → 59%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
45.6%
Herb Waters pass complete to Mark Walton for 26 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.8%
Mark Walton 6 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:5343% → 44%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
44.0%
Hosey Williams run for 13 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
44.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
45.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
45.4%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
45.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
46.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
46.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Hosey Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
44.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+51
44.1%
Andrew Gantz 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4155% → 62%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
44.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+19
43.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 19 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+40
43.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 40 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
42.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Alex Gall) to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.2%
Joseph Yearby 8 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5741% → 41%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.0%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
41.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 13 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
42.9%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
43.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-2
42.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+33
41.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CINCINNATI 19 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5259% → 59%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
41.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
41.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
40.3%
Brad Kaaya run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
40.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 62 yds, downed at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5341% → 40%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
40.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+2
40.7%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 7
0
40.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
39.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5162% → 60%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
38.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
38.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
38.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
40.4%
Michael Badgley 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0442% → 57%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
42.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
50
+8
44.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Hosey Williams for 8 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
45.0%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
44.7%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
45.3%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+35
45.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 35 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
46.6%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.7%
Hayden Moore 1 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5247% → 46%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
55.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Tyrell Gilbert) to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
54.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 71 yds · 1:1153% → 64%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.2%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
53.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 8 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
53.9%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+38
55.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 38 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
57.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+8
57.6%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
63.8%
Andrew Gantz 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3261% → 59%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.6%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete, broken up by Chad ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
59.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
58.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds , Corn Elder returns for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3140% → 38%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
59.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
58.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-3
58.9%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
62.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1662% → 61%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
61.8%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 12Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-1
62.1%
Hayden Moore sacked by Courtel Jenkins and Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 11Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
61.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 12
OWN 11
-5
60.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Carter Jacobs) to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 17
OWN 6
+18
60.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds , Corn Elder returns for 18 yds to the Cincy 24 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaquan Johnson) to the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2641% → 35%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
58.6%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Waters, Herb, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Stephens, Linden) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL.Similar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
56.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
57.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-7
59.7%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Sione Tongamoa for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 17
OPP 35
+53
64.8%
Michael Badgley 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3068% → 67%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
67.5%
Hayden Moore sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+2
66.4%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+5
67.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 5 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+2
66.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 52 yds , Corn Elder returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 6:5236% → 30%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
65.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 11 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
65.0%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Darling) to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 19
OWN 17
+5
65.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+8
66.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
67.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
65.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+11
64.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
63.7%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
64.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+10
66.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 10 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-3
66.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
70.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0377% → 77%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
77.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
78.6%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
79.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-6
78.2%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
76.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 62 yds, downed at the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:4527% → 28%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
72.6%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Herndon IV, Christopher, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Tyson, Mike) 15 yards to the MIAMIFL26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL.Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
72.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
71.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
72.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
72.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
72.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
70.4%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
70.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
73.7%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
74.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
74.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
79.0%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
71.9%
Michael Badgley 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:5673% → 93%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
72.5%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+52
72.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 52 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
80.6%
Hosey Williams run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.2%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.4%
Tyler Cogswell 7 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:007% → 6%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish Dobard, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
93.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+11
94.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 11 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
93.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+45
93.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 45 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
92.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish Dobard, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:0594% → 97%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
94.0%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+2
94.8%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.5%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+41
95.9%
Tion Green run for 41 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.0%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
97.1%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
97.3%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:54
Tyler Cogswell 7 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q2 2:17
Hayden Moore 1 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+10.1
FG · Q4 8:59
Michael Badgley 26 Yd Field Goal
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com