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TXST

Texas State 14 at Houston 59

HOU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:01 · Lumi Kaba punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense+14.9Score differential+9.6Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:47: Tyler Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +4.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:18: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 65 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +2.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:05: Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +3.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:01: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:53: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:23HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41HOU 4th & 1 at TXST 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:46HOU 4th & 7 at TXST 7, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:46TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:03TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 32, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:01HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 45, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:57HOU 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:49TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 17, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52TXST 4th & 3 at HOU 42, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:52TXST 4th & 13 at HOU 33, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:11HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:18HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:05HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:01HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:53HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:44HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:03HOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:57TXST Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:52HOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:4985% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
85.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+35
85.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 35 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
85.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+15
85.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
85.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 32 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
85.2%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+17
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 17 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 12 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 17 yds Lawrence White fumbled, forced by Adrian McDonald, recovered by Houst William Jackson III , return for 13 yds to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:2185% → 85%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
85.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+8
85.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
85.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
85.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+7
85.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
85.4%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+1
85.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-5
85.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+5
85.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 15
OWN 49
+42
85.1%
Logan Piper punt for 34 yds TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Karee Berry) to the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4615% → 14%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
84.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
84.9%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 11Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-7
85.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 15
OWN 4
0
85.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
85.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
85.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
85.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
85.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4415% → 20%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
85.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 3
50
+15
84.8%
Tyler Jones run for 15 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
84.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
84.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Tyus BowserSimilar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
84.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.5%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
84.5%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+16
84.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
84.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 4Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.9%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2982% → 85%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.9%
Javin Webb run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
84.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 65 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:1815% → 15%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
84.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-5
85.0%
Jones, Tyler pass complete to Bowens, Kwamane for 11 yards to the TXST34 (ROBERTS, E.), PENALTY TXST illegal formation 5 yards to the TXST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
85.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 18
+1
85.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3985% → 89%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
84.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
85.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
85.1%
Javin Webb run for 10 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
85.1%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+33
85.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 33 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.4%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.7%
Chris Nutall run for no gain to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
87.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 9 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+47
87.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 32 yds to the HOUSTON 44 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Lee Hightower) to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
86.5%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
86.6%
Tyler Jones sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+18
87.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 24 yds C.J. Best fumbled, forced by Trevon Stewart, recovered by Houst Adrian McDonald , return for 8 yds to the Houst 25 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (Steven Taylor) to the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 2:4989% → 95%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
88.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+50
88.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 50 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
89.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
89.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
89.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
89.2%
Javin Webb run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
89.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 8 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+8
89.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
89.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
93.5%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
93.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
93.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus Gaines, broken up by Howard WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-5
93.3%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Carden) to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:1995% → 99%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
95.1%
Javin Webb run for 12 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
95.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Karee Berry for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
95.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+26
95.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 26 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
95.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+14
95.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 14 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
95.3%
Javin Webb run for 6 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
98.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
98.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+35
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD William Jackson III return for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:221% → 1%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.2%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
99.3%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+6
99.3%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
99.1%
Kaba, Lumi punt 38 yards to the HOU23, out-of-bounds, PENALTY HOU substitution infraction 5 yards to the TXST44, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 13 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
98.9%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 35 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Carden) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+18
99.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 18 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for no gain to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.9%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
99.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 39 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+53
99.3%
Demarcus Ayers run for 53 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Alex Cooper) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Kyle PostmaSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
99.5%
Kyle Bullard 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.4%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 23 yds, downed at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+25
99.6%
Javin Webb run for 25 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 11 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
99.6%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Chris Nutall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-4
99.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+10
99.7%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to Donald GageSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to Donald GageSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Logan Piper punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 15 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 7 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+14
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 14 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 12 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 11 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 11 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Chris Nutall run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 14 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-2
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+49
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Kyle Postma for 49 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Adam Schulz run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 14 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan Garrey, broken up by Khalil WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun Mercer, broken up by Jeremy WinchesterSimilar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
99.9%
Javin Webb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
99.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 11 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
100.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
100.0%
Connor White run for 6 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 9 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
100.0%
Connor White run for 2 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+12
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 12 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to Ryan Garrey, broken up by Khalil WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-8
99.9%
Connor White sacked by Emeke Egbule for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+5
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to Kwamane Bowens for 5 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 13
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to Kwamane BowensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:01
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q1 1:47
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 12:05
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com