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CIN

Cincinnati 46 at Memphis 53

MEM
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:55 · Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.9Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:30: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +19.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:02: Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CIN win probability +28.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:07: Sam Craft run for 5 yds for a TD, (P. Lynch Run For Two-point Conversion) — MEM win probability +31.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:56: Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 30 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +39.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:53: Sam Craft run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +30.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:46MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 11, down 7
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07CIN 4th & 9 at MEM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:04CIN 4th & 4 at MEM 10, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14CIN 4th & 10 at MEM 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:02CIN 4th & 7 at MEM 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:08MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 28, down 2
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:56CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:55MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 32, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:23CIN 4th & 13 at midfield, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−3.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:54MEM 4th & 19 at MEM 10, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−5.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:36MEM 4th & 17 at CIN 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−5.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−13.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:27CIN 4th & 8 at MEM 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−13.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:24MEM 4th & 1 at CIN 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−6.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−9.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:11MEM 4th & 2 at CIN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−7.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−12.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:27CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:16CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:34MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:42MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:11CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:03MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:07MEM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:46CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:30MEM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:02CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.0%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:07MEM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:56CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:53MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0960% → 60%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
59.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
59.5%
Sam Craft run for 11 yds to the Memph 36 Sam Craft fumbled, forced by Leviticus Payne, recovered by Cincy Eric Wilson , return for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1941% → 41%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
59.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 9 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
59.3%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
59.3%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to Angulo, Christian, PENALTY MEMPHIS offside (Dillon, Jackson) 5 yards to the MEMPHIS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+15
59.3%
Gunner Kiel run for 15 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.7%
Gunner Kiel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2459% → 58%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
58.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+9
58.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 9 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
58.5%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
58.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:0542% → 41%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
58.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 14 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max Morrison, broken up by Reggis BallSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
57.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+59
59.0%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Arthur Maulet return for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:2241% → 42%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.4%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.3%
Chris Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
59.3%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
59.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
58.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
58.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 16 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
58.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
58.1%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
58.4%
Gunner Kiel run for 6 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
58.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Donald PenningtonSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
58.1%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
58.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
58.3%
Andrew Gantz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:1158% → 61%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam Craft, broken up by Eric WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+82
60.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 82 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-15
60.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Miller) to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:2038% → 38%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
61.6%
Hosey Williams run for 8 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
61.1%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
61.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
61.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 20 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
60.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 17 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
60.1%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
60.2%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
60.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
61.7%
Andrew Gantz 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0962% → 61%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
61.8%
Cooper, Jarvis rush for 10 yards to the MEMPHIS30, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Fallin, Taylor) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
61.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
61.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+5
61.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
60.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 44 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 39 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:3438% → 43%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
62.3%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+68
56.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5158% → 64%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
57.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+16
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
59.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
59.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 9 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+26
59.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 26 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
60.5%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
60.5%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
64.1%
Mose Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 1:4937% → 39%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+21
63.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 21 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
62.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 11 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
61.3%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+13
61.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 13 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
60.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
61.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
60.9%
Andrew Gantz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0362% → 62%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
62.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
61.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 4 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
62.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+6
61.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 51 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 6 yds to the Cincy 26 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 2:4839% → 46%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
61.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+16
61.9%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Memph 38 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Latarius Brady) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
59.0%
Hosey Williams run for 8 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+9
59.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
58.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Johnny Holton for 9 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
57.1%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
57.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
57.3%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
58.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
53.8%
Andrew Gantz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3357% → 69%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+61
56.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 61 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1033% → 45%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
64.8%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
65.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 45 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
62.1%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-4
63.3%
Tion Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+21
51.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 15
OWN 35
-15
55.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shaq Washington) to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2654% → 55%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
54.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 8 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
56.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
53.7%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
54.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3245% → 47%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
54.9%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
54.4%
Hosey Williams run for 14 yds to the Cincy 38 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Chisum) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-2
53.4%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5848% → 46%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.5%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
53.3%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
54.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5655% → 53%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
54.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
54.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
52.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Gabe Kuhn) to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+12
52.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 12 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
52.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:2448% → 48%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
51.6%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
51.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 12 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
49.5%
Moore, Hayden pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the CINCINNATI33 (Morley, Chris;Witty, Dion), PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (White, Shareef) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
48.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
48.8%
Moore, Hayden rush for no gain to the MEMPHIS47, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Ehinger, Parker) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+7
51.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 13
50
0
50.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 13
50
0
52.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 31 yds, downed at the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2353% → 49%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
52.2%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Lyndon Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 19
OWN 10
0
50.3%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 19
OWN 10
+8
49.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 57 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 8 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0953% → 53%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
47.0%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
46.6%
Hosey Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+1
46.7%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Reggis Ball return for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:5456% → 61%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
56.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
53.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+17
55.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 17 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
57.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 15 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
57.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+9
57.6%
Lynch, Paxton pass incomplete to Mayhue, Phil, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Payne, Leviticus) 9 yards to the CINCINNATI9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
57.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
55.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-15
53.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trevon Tate) to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+40
60.5%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:0339% → 57%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
60.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 6 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
59.7%
Moore, Hayden pass incomplete to Morrison, Max, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Ball, Reggis) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
58.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 18 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.0%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+18
56.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 18 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
53.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
53.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-5
55.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
56.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Dion WittySimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
43.4%
Andrew Gantz 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:4651% → 76%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
50.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
49.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 11 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
52.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 21 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
56.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-2
57.6%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
55.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+9
52.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
57.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 15 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:1632% → 61%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
67.7%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
67.7%
Hosey Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+8
69.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 8 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
67.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 11 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
65.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 17 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
62.0%
Moore, Hayden pass complete to Morrison, Max for 8 yards to the MEMPHIS45, PENALTY CINCINNATI personal foul (Ray, Idarius) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 25
OWN 32
+12
67.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 12 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+16
67.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 16 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
39.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4749% → 89%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
49.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 22 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
54.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 17 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
55.8%
Sam Craft run for 7 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+12
57.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
57.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 7 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.3%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds for a TD, (P. Lynch Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0516% → 59%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
83.8%
Tion Green run for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
81.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
80.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+23
80.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 23 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
41.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 30 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:3956% → 59%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
60.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+16
58.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 16 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
62.8%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
62.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
61.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
58.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:4453% → 49%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
46.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Ryan Leahy) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+16
48.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
44.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
46.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
50.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2956% → 96%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
55.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 13 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
56.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 29 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
62.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 18 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
64.7%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+8
64.8%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 32INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:3612% → 18%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
88.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
85.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 19 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
86.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
81.9%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Leonard Pegues return for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:56
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 30 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-39.6
TD · Q4 7:07
Sam Craft run for 5 yds for a TD, (P. Lynch Run For Two-point Conversion)
+31.8
TD · Q4 0:53
Sam Craft run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+30.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com